基于二值响应模型的房地产泡沫预警方法研究

 本文在总结国内外房地产泡沫预警研究的基础上，论述了二值响应模型在房地产泡沫预警研究中的应用，并以日本为例进行了实证研究。结果表明，二值响应模型在房地产泡沫预警中有比较准确的预测作用。另外，与徐滇庆(2000)的研究不同，有关股市价值的相关变量并不能对房地产泡沫起到明显的预警作用。     

江苏省经济发展与城乡统筹关系实证分析：1980～2004

Granger因果关系检验表明,短期内江苏经济发展与城乡统筹存在着单向因果关系,长期内江苏的经济发展与城乡统筹之间存在着双向的、互为因果关系。进一步脉冲分析表明,一方面,经济发展并不会自动导致城乡差距的缩小,而且在长期还会进一步加大城乡差距;另一方面,在短期内城乡统筹水平对经济发展的影响并不显著,在长期内城乡统筹水平对经济发展的影响为负效应。     

符号学视角下欠额翻译与超额翻译的规避问题

本文依据社会符号学的基本理论及其代表人物尤金.奈达寻求“动态对等”,讲求社会效应的翻译标准,提出了界定欠额翻译与超额翻译的标准——译语读者的反应,并进而从准确理解源语和运用规避策略两大方面探讨如何在翻译实践中尽量减少欠额翻译与超额翻译的发生。     

一种预先集中创建服务器子进程缩短服务器响应时间的方法

在客户 /服务器模式中 ,服务器响应时间是重要性能指标之一 .分析了串行服务器进程和并发服务器进程的创建时机 ,提出了一种预先集中创建服务器子进程的方法 ,同时给出了该方法的具体实现步骤 ,通过实验测试表明该方法对服务器响应时间性能有明显提高 .     

综合性运动会电脑服务系统的设计与应用

介绍了在四川省第六届运动会上首次使用我们研制的中小型运动会实时处理和综合服务系统及其系统组成、功能特点及应用实况.该系统的主要特点是可靠性高、实时性好、功能强全、操作简便和经济实用.     

核事故早期应急群决策模型研究

有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。     

Individual Differences in Women's Salivary Testosterone and Estradiol Following Sexual Activity in a Nonlaboratory Setting

Objectives: The current study evaluated women's salivary testosterone and estradiol levels before and after exposure to sexual stimuli in a U.S. sex club. Methods: Behavioral data and salivary samples were collected from 19 women during semistructured interviews. Results: Findings demonstrate substantial individual differences in the magnitude and direction of women's hormonal changes following sexual activity. Conclusions: In an age of individualized medicine, these findings highlight the need to better understand factors shaping variation in physiological responses to sexual activity. Findings contribute to a relatively small and contradictory literature on women's hormonal responses to sexual stimuli.     

脉冲响应函数下的我国货币需求变动与决定

基于V A R模型的脉冲响应函数法和预期方差分解法,分析了我国2000年至2013年期间的货币需求与相关经济因素之间的动态影响特征。研究表明狭义货币、广义货币分别与相关的经济变量存在长期的均衡关系。狭义货币、广义货币对GDP的冲击分别呈现抑制效应、对SV的随机冲击主要呈现正效应、对R的随机冲击主要呈现抑制效应、对CPI的冲击呈现正效应和抑制效应交叉出现的现象。狭义货币、广义货币新息冲击对其自身预测均方误差的贡献度最大。新息冲击对狭义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：一年期定期存款名义利率（R）、沪深两市A股总市值（SV）、国内生产总值（GDP）、消费者物价指数（CPI）。新息冲击对广义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：国内生产总值（GDP ）、消费者物价指数（CPI ）、一年期定期存款名义利率（R ）、沪深两市A股总市值（S V ）。根据实证结论,得出相关经济变量对货币需求的影响,并据此提出有利于完善货币政策的建议。     

To adjust or not to adjust for baseline when analyzing repeated binary responses? The case of complete data when treatment comparison at study end is of interest

The benefits of adjusting for baseline covariates are not as straightforward with repeated binary responses as with continuous response variables. Therefore, in this study, we compared different methods for analyzing repeated binary data through simulations when the outcome at the study endpoint is of interest. Methods compared included chi‐square, Fisher's exact test, covariate adjusted/unadjusted logistic regression (Adj.logit/Unadj.logit), covariate adjusted/unadjusted generalized estimating equations (Adj.GEE/Unadj.GEE), covariate adjusted/unadjusted generalized linear mixed model (Adj.GLMM/Unadj.GLMM). All these methods preserved the type I error close to the nominal level. Covariate adjusted methods improved power compared with the unadjusted methods because of the increased treatment effect estimates, especially when the correlation between the baseline and outcome was strong, even though there was an apparent increase in standard errors. Results of the Chi‐squared test were identical to those for the unadjusted logistic regression. Fisher's exact test was the most conservative test regarding the type I error rate and also with the lowest power. Without missing data, there was no gain in using a repeated measures approach over a simple logistic regression at the final time point. Analysis of results from five phase III diabetes trials of the same compound was consistent with the simulation findings. Therefore, covariate adjusted analysis is recommended for repeated binary data when the study endpoint is of interest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.