上海与纽约黄金期货价格联动关系实证分析

为研究国内外期货黄金价格之间的关联性,对2011～ 2012年间的纽约期金日收盘价格和上海期金开盘价格进行协整检验、因果检验,建立误差修正模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解研究.结果表明：上海黄金期货市场与纽约黄金期货市场价格之间存在长期均衡的关系.上海期货价格受到纽约期货市场价格的影响幅度更大,时间间隔更短.     

基于VAR模型的安徽省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

自然条件、政策环境、经济因素、技术进步等因素都会影响粮食产量。选取安徽省1990-2012年影响粮食生产的7个因素,最初,使用前向逐步回归分析的方法研究发现,对粮食产量影响较大的因素有粮食成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量3个变量。其次,Johansen协整检验阐释了这3个变量与粮食总产量之间的关系,并构造脉冲响应函数及进行方差分解得出这3个变量对总产量的贡献度为：粮食成灾面积〉化肥施用量〉有效灌溉面积。所以,增强农业工程的防灾减灾效果,提升农田水利基础设施的使用效率,科学控制化肥施用量对提高安徽省粮食综合生产能力具有重大作用。     

政治学视角下构建政务微博回应机制的探讨--基于常州政务微博的个案分析

回应性是衡量政府善治程度和社会民主发展的重要维度,也是创建服务型政府的必要因素。政务微博作为互联网时代下政府与民众沟通的新型平台,承担着通过加强回应性进而提高政府服务能力和程度的功能。然而就目前所做的个案分析来看,政务微博因管理理念的落后以及方法上的失当,其信息发布过于泛化,互动程度较弱的同时,回应也同样呈现出弱势的特征。因而,通过微博管理观念的更新以及具体运营方法上的变革提高政务微博的互动与回应性,成为政务微博长远发展的可行策略。     

马克思主义的时代回应

在深入领会“三个代表”重要思想的科学内涵,特别是“代表中国先进文化的前进方向”的基础上,正确运用汤因比“挑战——应战”模式,分析世界和中国哲学界存在的各种思潮之间,包括主流和边缘之间的互动关系,可以看出“三个代表”重要思想是对于现代挑战的应战。     

Ngā Mōwaho: an analysis of Māori responses to the Christchurch earthquakes

Since September 2010, a series of earthquakes have caused widespread social, financial and environmental devastation in Christchurch, New Zealand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that local Māori responded effectively to facilitate community recovery and resilience. However, the form, content and extent of that response has not been adequately recognised or documented. This qualitative research project, conducted in partnership with Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, has documented the way in which Māori cultural factors have facilitated disaster risk reduction and management in response to the earthquakes. This paper explores sets of understandings about marginalisation and inclusion within the narratives of 70 Māori community members who contributed to this research. Forms of marginalisation expressed in participants’ narratives include delayed linkages to the formal emergency management infrastructure, difficulties integrating Māori volunteers into the mainstream response as well as enduring barriers to Māori engagement within Civil Defence, illustrated in a lack of Māori representation as well as tikanga Māori within emergency planning. We argue that the knowledge, principles and practices embedded within Māori responses to the Christchurch earthquakes may be contextually relevant for national and regional policy development in the area of disaster risk management, response and recovery.     

国际干散货运输航线间即期与远期市场的关联机制研究

以C3、C5航线FFA交易即期和远期的日数据为研究对象,以向量自回归模型为基础,利用脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析方法,对C3、C5航线的即期与远期市场及其航线间的相关关系进行了实证分析。脉冲响应结果显示,同一航线即期市场的波动会引起远期市场的波动,反之则影响较小;C5航线的波动能迅速传给C3航线,反之则较弱。通过方差分解分析可以发现,即期市场的预测波动大约有50％来源于对应的远期市场但远期市场的预测波动主要取决于远期市场本身;C3航线的预测波动主要取决于本航线,而C5航线的预测波动则有一半来源于C3航线。     

积极应对外商投资对我国环境造成的污染

实践表明,利用外商投资对我国经济发展起到了关键的作用,但由于处在经济发展中的被动地位,发展中国家在国际分工中往往以牺牲环境为代价换取经济发展.这不仅造成了局部环境的恶化,也严重影响了我国经济的可持续发展.在利用外资中,如何保持高速发展,在扩大开放中保持良性循环,已成为当务之急.     

An Exposure‐Response Threshold for Lung Diseases and Lung Cancer Caused by Crystalline Silica

Whether crystalline silica (CS) exposure increases risk of lung cancer in humans without silicosis, and, if so, whether the exposure‐response relation has a threshold, have been much debated. Epidemiological evidence is ambiguous and conflicting. Experimental data show that high levels of CS cause lung cancer in rats, although not in other species, including mice, guinea pigs, or hamsters; but the relevance of such animal data to humans has been uncertain. This article applies recent insights into the toxicology of lung diseases caused by poorly soluble particles (PSPs), and by CS in particular, to model the exposure‐response relation between CS and risk of lung pathologies such as chronic inflammation, silicosis, fibrosis, and lung cancer. An inflammatory mode of action is described, having substantial empirical support, in which exposure increases alveolar macrophages and neutrophils in the alveolar epithelium, leading to increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitrogen species (RNS), pro‐inflammatory mediators such as TNF‐alpha, and eventual damage to lung tissue and epithelial hyperplasia, resulting in fibrosis and increased lung cancer risk among silicotics. This mode of action involves several positive feedback loops. Exposures that increase the gain factors around such loops can create a disease state with elevated levels of ROS, TNF‐alpha, TGF‐beta, alveolar macrophages, and neutrophils. This mechanism implies a “tipping point” threshold for the exposure‐response relation. Applying this new model to epidemiological data, we conclude that current permissible exposure levels, on the order of 0.1 mg/m³, are probably below the threshold for triggering lung diseases in humans.     

Calibration Estimator of a Rare Sensitive Attribute with Poisson Distribution

In this paper we consider the calibration procedure for a rare sensitive attribute with Poisson distribution which suggested by Land et al. (2012) using auxiliary information associated with the variable of interest. In the calibration procedure, we can use auxiliary information such as socio-demographical variables for the respondents of rare sensitive attribute questions from an external source, and then this estimator can be improved with respect to the problems of non coverage or non response. From the efficiency comparison study, we show that the calibrated Poisson RR estimators are more efficient than that of Land et al. (2012), when the known population cell and marginal counts of auxiliary information are used for the calibration procedure.     

Conditions for fourth order rotatability in K dimensions

In this paper, conditions for a set of points to form a rotatable design of order four have been worked out. These condi- tions form the basis for obtaining a set of rotatable designs of order four.