历史与意识形态召唤中的千面诗人(下篇)

近三百年间西方理论家和批评家对诗人（艺术家）各不相同的规定和表述，直接来自言说者艺术观的差异，时各种艺术观的历史化处理将会揭示它们与特定意识形态和历史背景的关联，近三百年间资本主义从自由竞争到垄断资本再到跨国控制的发展历史以及由此决定的意识形态结构地形的变化，在总体上召唤着理论家和批评家作出应答，他们主要围绕着人本主义和科学主义两大主轴设计的各不相同的诗人形象都是对这一召唤应答的结果。     

Optimal designs for contingent response models with application to toxicity–efficacy studies

We describe a general family of contingent response models. These models have ternary outcomes constructed from two Bernoulli outcomes, where one outcome is only observed if the other outcome is positive. This family is represented in a canonical form which yields general results for its Fisher information. A bivariate extreme value distribution illustrates the model and optimal design results. To provide a motivating context, we call the two binary events that compose the contingent responses toxicity and efficacy. Efficacy or lack thereof is assumed only to be observable in the absence of toxicity, resulting in the ternary response (toxicity, efficacy without toxicity, neither efficacy nor toxicity). The rate of toxicity, and the rate of efficacy conditional on no toxicity, are assumed to increase with dose. While optimal designs for contingent response models are numerically found, limiting optimal designs can be expressed in closed forms. In particular, in the family of four parameter bivariate location-scale models we study, as the marginal probability functions of toxicity and no efficacy diverge, limiting D optimal designs are shown to consist of a mixture of the D optimal designs for each failure (toxicity and no efficacy) univariately. Limiting designs are also obtained for the case of equal scale parameters.     

Violation of respondent's privacy in moors* model- its rectification through a random group strategy

The primary objective of the randomized response techniques introduced by Warner (1965) and Greenberg et al. (1969) was to protect the privacy of the respondents while eliciting information on sensitive issues. However, Moors' (1971) model, which is considered to be the best in the sense of optimality and convenience to use, fails to protect the privacy of respondents in certain cases. The present paper aims at pointing out this serious draw back. An alternative model termed as 'random group method ' is proposed. The proposed model is free from the above mentioned drawback and provides more efficient estimator as compared to the usual Greenberg at al. 's (1969) model.     

Estimation of the Likelihood of Fecal–Oral HEV Transmission Among Pigs

Sources for human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections of genotype 3 are largely unknown. Pigs are potential animal reservoirs for HEV. Intervention at pig farms may be desired when pigs are confirmed as a source for human infections, requiring knowledge about transmission routes. These routes are currently understudied. The current study aims to quantify the likelihood of pig feces in causing new HEV infections in pigs due to oral ingestion. We estimated the daily infection risk for pigs by modeling the fate of HEV in the fecal–oral (F–O) pathway. Using parameter values deemed most plausible by the authors based on current knowledge the daily risk of infection was 0.85 (95% interval: 0.03–1). The associated expected number of new infections per day was ～4 (2.5% limit 0.1, the 97% limit tending to infinity) compared to 0.7 observed in a transmission experiment with pigs, and the likelihood of feces causing the transmission approached 1. In alternative scenarios, F–O transmission of HEV was also very likely to cause new infections. By reducing the total value of all explanatory variables by 2 orders of magnitude, the expected numbers of newly infected pigs approached the observed number. The likelihood of F–O transmission decreased by decreasing parameter values, allowing for at most 94% of infections being caused by additional transmission routes. Nevertheless, in all scenarios F–O transmission was estimated to contribute to HEV transmission. Thus, despite the difficulty in infecting pigs with HEV via oral inoculation, the F–O route is likely to cause HEV transmission among pigs.     

Linking Disaster Preparedness and Organizational Response Effectiveness

An analytical model is developed to specify the relationship between organizational disaster preparedness and effective disaster response. Specifying this relationship clarifies the theoretical significance of the concept of preparedeness. The model shows how the concept of disaster preparedness. The model shows how the concept of disaster preparedenss applies to a broad range of social services when circumstances overwhelm the usual means of responding to problems. The relationship between organizational preparedness and effectiveness has been widely and ambiguously assumed but never actually tested. The viability of the model is illustrated with data from a Key Resource Chapter of the American Red Cross. The paradoxical nature of organizational effectiveness suggests the need for many empirical studies to further sharpen the analytical connection between preparedness and effectiveness.     

突发公共安全事件应对立法的价值选择与体系构建

以突发公共安全事件应对立法作为切入点，通过对突发公共安全事件内涵、特征、类型、成因及发达国家应对机制的分析，在概括国内外立法概况的基础上，探讨我国突发公共安全事件应对立法的目的价值选择、平衡及其法制体系构建，目的在于完善我国突发公共安全事件应对立法，使其发挥应有的预防、调控与应对作用。     

Estimation of population mean based on dual use of auxiliary information in non response

Whenever there is auxiliary information available in any form, the researchers want to utilize it in the method of estimation to obtain the most efficient estimator. When there exists enough amount of correlation between the study and the auxiliary variables, and parallel to these associations, the ranks of the auxiliary variables are also correlated with the study variable, which can be used a valuable device for enhancing the precision of an estimator accordingly. This article addresses the problem of estimating the finite population mean that utilizes the complementary information in the presence of (i) the auxiliary variable and (ii) the ranks of the auxiliary variable for non response. We suggest an improved estimator for estimating the finite population mean using the auxiliary information in the presence of non response. Expressions for bias and mean squared error of considered estimators are derived up to the first order of approximation. The performance of estimators is compared theoretically and numerically. A numerical study is carried out to evaluate the performances of estimators. It is observed that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the usual sample mean and the regression estimators, and some other families of ratio and exponential type of estimators.     

Evaluating the Potential for a Helicobacter pylori Drinking Water Guideline

Helicobacter pylori is a microaerophilic, gram‐negative bacterium that is linked to adverse health effects including ulcers and gastrointestinal cancers. The goal of this analysis is to develop the necessary inputs for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) needed to develop a potential guideline for drinking water at the point of ingestion (e.g., a maximum contaminant level, or MCL) that would be protective of human health to an acceptable level of risk while considering sources of uncertainty. Using infection and gastric cancer as two discrete endpoints, and calculating dose‐response relationships from experimental data on humans and monkeys, we perform both a forward and reverse risk assessment to determine the risk from current reported surface water concentrations of H. pylori and an acceptable concentration of H. pylori at the point of ingestion. This approach represents a synthesis of available information on human exposure to H. pylori via drinking water. A lifetime risk of cancer model suggests that a MCL be set at <1 organism/L given a 5‐log removal treatment because we cannot exclude the possibility that current levels of H. pylori in environmental source waters pose a potential public health risk. Research gaps include pathogen occurrence in source and finished water, treatment removal rates, and determination of H. pylori risks from other water sources such as groundwater and recreational water.     

二项抽样下随机化调查的比估计模型

在实际调查中，有一些已知的辅助信息，这些信息可以用来提高调查效率。但所利用的辅助信息是未知的，很少见。本文利用二项抽样的方法获得辅助信息，据此，研究了属性特征随机化调查使用辅助信息的比估计方法，设计了比估计模型，将比估计模型在理论上与Warner模型进行了比较，证明此比估计模型在一定条件下所得到的理论优于Warner模型。     

民国新型知识精英群体救国反应比较研究——以袁世凯时期"二十一条"交涉为中心

1915年,日本对华提出旨在灭亡中国的"二十一条",中国社会各阶层反响强烈.民国新型知识精英群体,此间,围绕"二十一条"交涉,在相关报刊发表时评文章,抨击、抗议日本侵华,倡言其救国理念及目标,他们的救国理念,都有朦胧不清晰之特点,且差异甚大,有些平和理性,有些感性激进,有些颇有前瞻性,而多元启蒙意义不可低估.