中国二战电影与反思“二战”的距离有多远

中国二战题材电影有三种面相:"英雄传奇类抗战电影"、"回归历史的抗战电影"、"反思类二战电影".传奇类过强而反思类不足是中国二战题材电影的特点.欧美国家的二战电影取得了反法西斯的丰硕成果,而我国导演反思"二战"的视角还不到位.只有揭露日本军国主义的法西斯本质,并从根本上揭示其形成法西斯观念的内在原因,才能触及"二战"的本质从而达到反思战争的目的.抗战-反法西斯-反战,是认识这场战争的三个有序过程,既切合人们对"二战"历史的认识规律,又符合一般观众思想运行的内在逻辑.对于中国观众的接受心理来说,"反法西斯"环节尤其重要.     

Indications for,and timing of,planned caesarean section: A systematic analysis of clinical guidelines

BackgroundThere has been a worldwide rise in planned caesarean sections over recent decades, with significant variations in practice between hospitals and countries. Guidelines are known to influence clinical decision-making and, potentially, unwarranted clinical variation. The aim of this study was to review guidelines for recommendations in relation to the timing and indications for planned caesarean section as well as recommendations around the process of decision-making.MethodA systematic search of national and international English-language guidelines published between 2008 and 2018 was undertaken. Guidelines were reviewed, assessed in terms of quality and extracted independently by two reviewers.FindingsIn total, 49 guidelines of varying quality were included. There was consistency between the guidelines in potential indications for caesarean section, although guidelines vary in terms of the level of detail. There was substantial variation in timing of birth, for example recommended timing of caesarean section for women with uncomplicated placenta praevia is between 36 and 39 weeks depending on the guideline. Only 11 guidelines provided detailed guidance on shared decision-making. In general, national-level guidelines from Australia, and overseas, received higher quality ratings than regional guidelines.ConclusionThe majority of guidelines, regardless of their quality, provide very limited information to guide shared decision-making or the timing of planned caesarean section, two of the most vital aspects of guidance. National guidelines were generally of better quality than regional ones, suggesting these should be used as a template where possible and emphasis placed on improving national guidelines and minimising intra-country, regional, variability of guidelines.     

A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

A Comparison of the Performance of Phase II Simple Linear Profile Control Charts when Parameters are Estimated

The standard deviation of the average run length (SDARL) is an important performance metric in studying the performance of control charts with estimated in-control parameters. Only a few studies in the literature, however, have considered this measure when evaluating control chart performance. The current study aims at comparing the in-control performance of three phase II simple linear profile monitoring approaches; namely, those of Kang and Albin (2000), Kim et al. (2003), and Mahmoud et al. (2010). The comparison is performed under the assumption of estimated parameters using the SDARL metric. In general, the simulation results of the current study show that the method of Kim et al. (2003) has better overall statistical performance than the competing methods in terms of SDARL values. Some of the recommended approaches based solely on the usual average run length properties can have poor SDARL performance.     

Stochastic dominance in multicriterion analysis under risk

Traditionally, in the literature on the modelling of decision aids one notes the propensity to treat expected utility models and outranking relation models as rivals. It may be possible, however, to benefit from the use of both approaches in a risky decision context. Stochastic dominance conditions can be used to establish, for each criterion, the preferences of a decision maker and to characterise them by a concave or convex utility function.Two levels of complexity in preference elicitation, designated as clear and unclear, are distinguished. Only in the case of unclear preferences is it potentially interesting to attempt to estimate the value function of the decision maker, thus obtaining his (her) preferences with a reduced number of questions. The number of questions that must be asked of the decision maker depends upon the level of the concordance threshold that he(she) requires in the construction of the outranking relations using the ELECTRE method.     

谁是战胜日本军国主义的决定性力量？

在战胜日本军国主义的过程中,中国战场和太平洋战争究竟孰轻孰重,一直是中外＂二战＂史学界热烈讨论的问题。依照军事史研究的自身规律,理性审视这一易带民族情感色彩的话题,美国对日作战的首要贡献应给予客观的评价。其论据主要有四：美国的参战根本改变了对日作战的力量对比;美军消灭了日本武装力量的主力;美军的海空攻击严重摧毁了日本国力;美国主导了战胜日本的法律和外交进程。     

Heteroscedastic Global Tests that the Regression Parameters for Two or More Independent Groups are Identical

Simulation results are reported on methods that allow both within group and between group heteroscedasticity when testing the hypothesis that independent groups have identical regression parameters. The methods are based on a combination of extant techniques, but their finite-sample properties have not been studied. Included are results on the impact of removing all leverage points or just bad leverage points. The method used to identify leverage points can be important and can improve control over the Type I error probability. Results are illustrated using data from the Well Elderly II study.     

Pitman closeness,monotonicity and consistency of best linear unbiased and invariant estimators for exponential distribution under Type II censoring

Comparisons of best linear unbiased estimators with some other prominent estimators have been carried out over the last 50 years since the ground breaking work of Lloyd [E.H. Lloyd, Least squares estimation of location and scale parameters using order statistics, Biometrika 39 (1952), pp. 88–95]. These comparisons have been made under many different criteria across different parametric families of distributions. A noteworthy one is by Nagaraja [H.N. Nagaraja, Comparison of estimators and predictors from two-parameter exponential distribution, Sankhyā Ser. B 48 (1986), pp. 10–18], who made a comparison of best linear unbiased (BLUE) and best linear invariant (BLIE) estimators in the case of exponential distribution. In this paper, continuing along the same lines by assuming a Type II right censored sample from a scaled-exponential distribution, we first compare BLUE and BLIE of the exponential mean parameter in terms of Pitman closeness (nearness) criterion. We show that the BLUE is always Pitman closer than the BLIE. Next, we introduce the notions of Pitman monotonicity and Pitman consistency, and then establish that both BLUE and BLIE possess these two properties.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.