面向未来的埃及教育改革

埃及实行免费教育体制,长期和持续的国家投入保证了教育在大众中间的普及,使埃及教育长期在阿拉伯国家和非洲地区处于领先地位。但随着全球化的日益深入以及埃及国内经济形势的变化,单纯依靠政府投入越来越不能满足人民群众对高质量教育服务的需求。埃及教育主管部门根据形势发展的迫切要求,一方面大力推进教育体制改革,力行非中央化的政策,在教育投入和管理上,加大社会力量参与的力度,加强了教育基础设施建设,提高了教师待遇;另一方面用先进的信息技术手段改造传统教育模式,并在教学过程中引入问责制度,保证教育质量不断提高,使其更好地服务于社会经济的发展。     

On robustness of the Shiryaev–Roberts change-point detection procedure under parameter misspecification in the post-change distribution

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk.     

Evaluation of the impact of intervention programmes on education organisations: Application to a Quality Management System

This paper analyses the importance of evaluating the various components of the programmes or actions carried out by education organisations. It highlights the need to assess the impact of the intervention on the organisation and consider how changes are consolidated over time in interaction with the context. We propose an impact evaluation model and as an example have chosen the implementation of Quality Management Systems in schools. The paper analyses the results obtained in 40 schools in three regions (Spanish Autonomous Communities) with varying levels of implementation. The results show overall impact on these education centres as the teachers and management teams of the centres perceive it. This impact is more evident in some of the dimensions considered in the study than in others. The results also confirm the differences between regional contexts.     

当代青年择偶的收入观——郎才女貌悖论

采用2002年中国住户调查数据,本文对当前我国婚姻市场的择偶标准进行了实证研究。在传统社会,高收入的男性和专职于家庭事务的女性被认为是完美的结婚组合(郎才女貌),因此当时的择偶标准体现为收入上的异质性。而本文通过实证研究发现,当前收入水平相当的男女更可能结为夫妻。现在与过去择偶标准的不同导致了郎才女貌悖论的出现。最后,本文阐述了婚介机构的重要性。     

技术教育背景下的《大学语文》课程透析

《大学语文》作为一门素质教育课程,其重要性已愈来愈显见,但它的重要性到底表现在哪些方面,这却是要加以细致地分析的。《大学语文》在启迪学生的生存智性、拓展学生的认知时空和提高学生的美学素质等方面都有着重要的作用。     

产品质量内部性问题的政府管制

文章引入了对产品质量的分析,将产品质量和数量作为并列的因素进行考察,着重分析了产品质量的内部性问题,并进一步提出了单纯的较大的交易成本和单纯的不对称信息,都不能解释产品质量内部性问题产生的根源,与信息不对称紧密联系的较大的交易成本才是其根源。如何降低这种交易成本就成为政府对产品质量内部性进行管制,提高消费者福利水平的管制重点。     

Participation of Disabled Children and Young People in Decision Making Within Social Services Departments: A Survey of Current and Recent Activities in England

A survey of all social services departments in England was undertakenin order to identify and investigate current work concerningthe participation of disabled children within decision makingregarding their own care and in service development. Developinga culture of, and good practice in, children’s participationis integral to government policy. Results demonstrate that disabledchildren are being involved in a range of decision-making areas;however, participation is not yet embedded or sustained acrossall social services departments, and the involvement of disabledchildren at a higher strategic level is still rare. The participationof disabled children needs further development including moreevidence on which factors can support and promote disabled children’seffective participation.     

工业结构转型与工业增长质量——以中国浙江省为例

文章基于工业结构演进的一般理论和结构转型分析模型,实证分析了浙江省11区域的工业行业特化度、结构转型方向和工业增长质量的差异情况。分析结果表明:属于特化-普化增长型的杭州、嘉兴等区域的工业比较劳动生产率呈不断上升趋势,而这些区域的工业发展主要是由技术水平高或生产效率高的行业带动的,正是这些行业的增长推动了工业结构优化或升级,从而提高了工业发展层次;而属于特化增长型的宁波、温州等区域的工业比较劳动生产率却呈下降趋势,其原因在于这些区域的工业增长主要是由技术水平低或生产效率较低行业实现的,这些低技术低效率行业的增长导致其工业结构劣化,影响了这些区域的工业发展层次和工业增长质量。     

Long and happy living: Trends and patterns of happy life expectancy in the U.S., 1970–2000

This study assesses the trends and differentials in length of quality life in the U.S. population as measured by happy life expectancy in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The analysis combines age-specific prevalence rates of subjective well-being from a large nationally representative survey and life table estimates of mortality in decennial Census years. Employing the period prevalence-rate life table method—Sullivan method, the analysis finds evidence for improvement in quality of life in the U.S. Happy life expectancy largely increased in both absolute terms (number of years) and relative terms (proportion of life) over time at all adult ages examined. And increases in total life expectancy were mainly contributed by increases in expectancy in happy years rather than unhappy years. Happy life expectancy is longer than active life expectancy. And there has been greater compression of unhappiness than compression of morbidity. There are substantial differentials in happy life expectancy by sex and race because of differential prevalence rates of happiness. Women and whites had longer years of total and happy life expectancies at most ages and dates, while men and blacks had greater proportions of happy life expectancies across the three decades. Although race differentials generally decreased at older ages and with time, relative disadvantages of blacks persisted.     

论怀疑的创新品格

作者通过对怀疑与创新意义的剖析,揭示出怀疑与创新的内在联系。创新是人的最本质的特征,是人性的内在需求;怀疑是创新的必然要求与必由之路,是人类一切否定性及革命性与批判性活动的源泉。通过怀疑在创新过程中所发挥的独特作用,来论证怀疑的创新品格,即怀疑具有解放思想、推陈出新、探索研究以及超越的功能。