我国季度GDP实时数据预测与评价

传统实证研究中使用的当期特定数据存在滞后信息和噪音信息缺陷,导致模型估计结果存在偏误。应用宏观经济实时数据可以有效的剔除造成模型偏误的滞后信息和噪音信息,得到更为准确的估计结果。MIDAS模型可将低频的关键经济数据与高频数据同时估计,较好的解决了应用一般模型存在的高频数据信息损失问题。本文应用M-MIDAS-DL模型与季度GDP实时数据建立我国季度GDP预测模型,实证表明,应用实时数据与组合预测方法,能及时准确预测出2008年以来中国经济增长率的下滑与反弹走势,能起到较好的提前预警作用,是当前较为有效的经济预测手段之一。     

中国居民消费价格指数间的关系与选择

居民消费价格是宏观经济监测的重要内容之一,其指数间的关系与选择具有重要意义。通过与国外发达国家的比较,从我国目前价格指数编制和选择使用的现状及存在的问题出发,研究环比、同比和定基价格指数以及环比“折年率”之间的相互转化情况和它们各自在经济监测中的特征。重点研究了基于X-12-ARIMA模型的环比价格指数的季节调整和同比价格指数相对环比价格指数对物价监测的时滞性。同时验证了研究中同比向定基指数转化的合理性。由此对我国居民价格实时监测的指数选择提供政策建议,也为我国价格指数的编制提出建议。     

Analytic evaluation of the expectation and variance of different performance measures of a schedule on a single machine under processing time variability

In this paper, we present closed-form expressions, wherever possible, or devise algorithms otherwise, to determine the expectation and variance of a given schedule on a single machine. We consider a variety of completion time and due date-based objectives. The randomness in the scheduling process is due to variable processing times with known means and variances of jobs and, in some cases, a known underlying processing time distribution. The results that we present in this paper can enable evaluation of a schedule in terms of both the expectation and variance of a performance measure considered, and thereby, aid in obtaining a stable schedule. Additionally, the expressions and algorithms that are presented, can be incorporated in existing scheduling algorithms in order to determine expectation-variance efficient schedules.     

挤入还是挤出:社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响——关于医疗保障与家庭经济供养行为

社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响一直是学术界关注的热点问题。基于实地调研数据,控制其他变量基础上,重点分析社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响,研究结果显示,社会保障总体上对子女经济供养老人的水平具有挤入效应,老年人获得社会保障总体上将提高子女对其经济供养水平。而解释机制分析则发现,原因在于医疗保障释放了老年人的医疗卫生服务需求,进而增加了相应支出,并最终导致子女增加了经济供养支出。进一步分析发现了该效应的群体差异性,而该效应实质是医疗卫生资源和服务分配的阶层性差异,根源在于现行医疗卫生制度存在的各种弊病。在研究结论基础上,提出了建立公平的健康保障与福利改进体系等思考。     

The polarizing effect of economic inequality on class identification: Evidence from 44 countries

Using cumulative logit mixed models fitted to World Values Survey data from 44 countries, we explore the impact of economic conditions – both at the individual-level and the national-level – on social class identification. Consistent with previous research, we find a positive relationship between household income and class identification in all countries that we explore, though this relationship varies substantially. Also corroborating previous research, we find that ‘low’ class identifications are more likely in poor countries than in rich ones. However, in contrast to previous research that has neglected the role of inequality, our results indicate that the effect of economic development diminishes if income inequality is considered in the same model. We further demonstrate that income inequality has an important polarizing effect on class identification. Specifically, the relationship between household income and class identity tends to be strongest in countries with a high level of income inequality.     

东北亚国家的合作与吉林老工业基地的振兴

加强与东北亚国家的全方位合作对振兴吉林老工业基地具有重要的意义：其一,吉林老工业基地的振兴,在某种意义上说,取决于对外开放的程度;其二,加强与东北亚国家的全方位合作,不仅能为我们带来物质层面的利益,而且能够促进我们在管理制度和思想观念层面的变革。另外,吉林省与东北亚国家在地缘上的相邻关系和相互间经济上的互补性,也给这种合作提供了广阔的发展空间。     

中国经济增长的就业弹性

 本文利用2001-2008年中国深沪两市508家制造业上市公司的微观就业数据和企业动态劳动需求方程来重新估计了中国经济增长的就业弹性。实证结果表明,中国制造业上市公司的总资产规模扩张（即企业投资）具有显著的就业效应。因此,企业微观数据并不支持中国经济增长的就业弹性下降或偏低的观点。     

Economic Design of Cumulative Sum Control Charts for Monitoring a Process with Correlated Samples

The underlying assumption for the design of control charts is the measurements within a sample are independently distributed. However, there are many situations where the uncorrelation assumption may be unacceptable in practice. In this paper, the economic design of cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart for correlated data within a sample is developed. The genetic algorithm is applied to find the optimal design parameters of the CUSUM control chart by minimizing the cost function. An illustrative example is given. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to evaluate the effects of cost parameters, process parameters, and correlation coefficient on the economic design.     

思想政治教育经济价值解析

思想政治教育的经济价值是指思想政治教育劳动所创造的能促进社会经济增长和发展,满足人们物质和精神需要的效应。它以物质与精神的相互转化、物质生产力与精神生产力的相互作用、生产劳动创造价值理论为依据,通过为经济发展提供精神动力、价值导向、营造环境来实现。     

论中国经济改革发展30年的三个空间层面

中国经济改革开放发展30年来,所进行的经济体制改革与经济发展变革从空间路径来讲,主要是从宏观层面的创新社会主义市场经济体制,中观层面的实施区域经济发展战略,微观层面的创建现代企业制度三条路径来进行。这三个层面肾密相联,互相促进,铸就了当代中国改革开放的主战场。当前这三个空间层面的变革仍在深化中。