An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina

This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.     

基于偏好决策的MC模式下供应链调度优化

分析了随机需求与随机资源约束条件下的MC模式下供应链调度过程中蕴含的主要矛盾问题,提出对供应链协作成员动态收益满意偏好的合理决策是有效解决矛盾的关键因素之一。对影响和决定该偏好的主、客观因素进行了界定以及定性与定量分析,建立了基于协作成员满意收益的利益偏好决策模型,最后将其引入MC模式下的供应链调度优化模型,通过算例分析,验证了思路与模型的有效性。     

*广西沿高速路经济发展战略研究

高速路网建设会对区域经济发展产生良好的经济效应，对广西加快区域经济一体化进程，促进产业结构优化和城市间融合具有重要的意义。为更好发挥高速路的作用，广西应制定“一极多中心多轴线”的高速路网总体战略规划，打造交通重要节点城市，形成“多层次、网络化”高速路交通枢纽，构建铁路与公路联动机制和产业联动机制，形成各具特色的新型城镇带，完善交通末梢通道建设，加强横向经济联合等。     

基于系统动力学的产业集群与城镇化互动发展研究

产业集群与城镇化都能促进区域经济发展,提升区域竞争力,因此对产业集群与城镇化互动发展进行研究极其重要。运用系统动力学方法分析产业集群与城镇化之间的因果反馈关系,建立产业集群与城镇化互动发展的系统动力学模型,并以沈阳经济区为例,通过Vensim软件对产业集群与城镇化互动发展进行仿真分析,给出产业集群与城镇化互动发展的动力关系,为促进产业集群与城镇化协调发展以及区域经济水平的提升提供支持。     

当前经济形势分析及相关政策建议

2014年中国经济增速将低于2013年,季度经济增速可能低于7%:经济依然处于下行周期中;全社会固定资产投资将结束年增长20%以上的历史;中国依然不会出现通货膨胀问题;地方政府债务泡沫、某些产能泡沫有可能破灭并引发短暂的阵痛,但这些小泡沫的破灭有利于经济长期发展、有利于大局。我国经济增速放慢是规律使然,是消化产能过剩的过程中必须经历的,是调整结构、转型升级的过程中必须经历的,是消化刺激政策后遗症的过程中必须经历的,也是深化改革的过程中必须经历的。     

Uncertainty as a common ground for a dialogue between economics and sociology

The article focuses on inter-firm relations, primarily seen as protective devises crafted for keeping at an arm's length various kinds of uncertainties involved in boundary transactions. Taking a holistic view, it proposes the notion of relational habitat, which refers to the relatively durable constellation of relations that connect a given firm to its main business partners. Performing a double-edged protective function, this constellation both stabilizes and simplifies the immediate operational domain of the firm and, thereby, diminishes to manageable levels the complexity of the relevant parts of the environment. By expanding the control of the firm beyond its organizational borders, relational habitat reduces the constraining impact of boundary uncertainty and enhances the action capacity of the firm – facilitating the materialization of its chosen line of action and its desired objectives. The article specifies this notion in detail and highlights some of its implications, both for the theoretical development of economic sociology and for its relation to economics.     

以色列高等教育状况与社会经济发展之鉴

以色列的高等教育迅速发展，使它一跃成为世界上教育水平最高的国家之一。逐渐普及的高等教育、配套的技术职业教育、高等教育与企业的竭力合作，成功地推动了国家经济、国防、社会科技的发展，为以色列强国之路提供了不竭的动力，为世界所瞩目，值得我们借鉴。     

Joint supplier selection and scheduling of customer orders under disruption risks: Single vs. dual sourcing

This paper presents a stochastic mixed integer programming approach to integrated supplier selection and customer order scheduling in the presence of supply chain disruption risks, for a single or dual sourcing strategy. The suppliers are assumed to be located in two different geographical regions: in the producer's region (domestic suppliers) and outside the producer's region (foreign suppliers). The supplies are subject to independent random local disruptions that are uniquely associated with a particular supplier and to random semi-global (regional) disruptions that may result in disruption of all suppliers in the same geographical region simultaneously. The domestic suppliers are relatively reliable but more expensive, while the foreign suppliers offer competitive prices, however material flows from these suppliers are more exposed to unexpected disruptions. Given a set of customer orders for products, the decision maker needs to decide which single supplier or which two different suppliers, one from each region, to select for purchasing parts required to complete the customer orders and how to schedule the orders over the planning horizon, to mitigate the impact of disruption risks. The problem objective is either to minimize total cost or to maximize customer service level. The obtained combinatorial stochastic optimization problem will be formulated as a mixed integer program with conditional value-at-risk as a risk measure. The risk-neutral and risk-averse solutions that optimize, respectively average and worst-case performance of a supply chain are compared for a single and dual sourcing strategy and for the two different objective functions. Numerical examples and computational results are presented and some managerial insights on the choice between the two sourcing strategies are reported.     

民主选举方式的伦理价值新探

投票选举，就其自身来说，符合按照德才分配政治职务的原则，因而是善的；但就其结果来说，却使被选举权为精英垄断，赋予官吏和政治权力以极大的重要性，最终难免精英篡夺最高权力，使“选举”成为“选主”，因而罪莫大焉。因此，投票选举“自身善”与“结果恶”的净余额是极大的恶，属于纯粹恶范畴，是不应该的、恶的和具有负价值的民主选举方式。相反，抽签选举，就其自身来说，违背按照德才分配政治职务的原则，因而是恶；但就其结果来说，不但保障了每个人都平等享有选举权和被选举权，而且还具有破除精英垄断政权、扼杀专制者于摇篮和降低官吏的价值，因而善莫大焉。因此，抽签选举“自身恶”与“结果善”的净余额是极大的善，属于必要恶范畴，是应该的、善的和具有正价值的民主选举方式。     

The relation of economic factors to perceived stress in mobile families

The purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between objective and subjective measures of economic well-being, amount of and satisfaction with control, and perceived stress level of subjects, who have relocated with their families within the past year. Both males and females indicate more stress if their financial condition is worse following the move than before, if their employment status is not satisfying, and when they have little control over their lives and are not satisfied with their level of control. Stress is negatively related to satisfaction with the specific aspects of economic situation studied for both males and females with limited exception.Peggy S. Berger received her Ph.D. from Pennsylvania State University. She is an Associate Professor in the Department of Consumer Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. Her research interests include socioeconomic issues related to geographic mobility and to gender, and work and family issues.Judith Powell received her Ph.D. from Oklahoma State University. She is a Professor of Child and Family Studies, and Head of the Department of Home Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071. Her research interests include parent-child relations and effects of relocation on families.Alicia Skinner Cook received her Ph.D. from Arizona State University. She is a Professor in the Department of Human Development and Family Studies at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523. Her research interests include grief and loss issues, family stress, and adjustment to relocation.