Empirical likelihood inference for partial functional linear model with missing responses

In this paper, we consider the empirical likelihood inferences of the partial functional linear model with missing responses. Two empirical log-likelihood ratios of the parameters of interest are constructed, and the corresponding maximum empirical likelihood estimators of parameters are derived. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the proposed two empirical log-likelihood ratios are asymptotic standard Chi-squared. Thus, the asymptotic results can be used to construct the confidence intervals/regions for the parameters of interest. We also establish the asymptotic distribution theory of corresponding maximum empirical likelihood estimators. A simulation study indicates that the proposed methods are comparable in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths of confidence intervals. An example of real data is also used to illustrate our proposed methods.     

出口边际网络特征及国家二元身份匹配适度区间研究

基于1995-2013年BACI数据库HS-6分位5017种产品218国家之间的双边贸易大样本数据,构建出口扩展边际和集约边际网络,从“关联”的角度考察国家在整个出口边际网络中的身份和地位,并探讨国家在二元网络中身份匹配的适度区间。研究结果表明：扩展边际网络存在“轴心-辐条”的格局特征,而集约边际网络的结构分布比较均衡,中国在扩展边际网络中处于“桥梁”和“枢纽”地位,但出口和进口对象还需进一步多元化。一国应实现与其出口广度相匹配、适度的出口强度。尽管中国出口的产品-国家组合已比较广泛,但在纺织服装和鞋类产品、其他低技术产品、加工产品、工程产品、电力设备这些产品出口集中程度仍超出适度的范围。     

相依结构、动态系统性风险测度与后验分析

本文利用Copula相依结构理论扩展和求解了现有的系统性风险测度CoVaR,以得到适用于不同类型常参数和时变参数Copula函数及不同分布假设的动态系统性风险测度。为了验证和评估模型设定的准确性与应用价值,我们构建了适用于该动态系统性风险测度CoVaR的严谨后验分析工具。除“无条件覆盖性”、“独立性”和“条件覆盖性”外,我们首次提出了“混合独立性”检验。基于中国14家上市商业银行的实证分析表明：中国上市商业银行与中国银行业之间的相依结构呈现多样化特征;无论是样本内还是样本外预测区间,我们的动态Copula-CoVaR模型能够有效地捕捉典型系统性风险事件;严谨的后验分析不仅需要检验系统性风险测度CoVaR,也需要检验条件事件的临界值VaR。     

关于高教改革的若干思考

回顾总结高教改革的历史进程,把握高教改革的基本内涵,目的在于明晰高教改革的发展现状,透视在此过程中的问题所在,从中提炼出未来改革进程中的价值目标与取向.     

最低价中标法的分析与应用

最低价中标法取消了标的,避免了人为的“失误、漏标、倾向性”,增加了评标的透明度,有效防止了招标投标领域滋生腐败,是一种真正体现“公平、公正”原则的招标方法。从最低价中标法的产生背景和带来的良好社会效益出发,对该招标方法的理论基础和合理使用的条件进行了全面的分析,最后结合我国目前建筑市场的实际情况,提出了推广使用最低价中标法的对策和建议:工程造价管理体系完全市场化;建立建筑业信息集中管理与发布中心;建立市场准入和市场清出制度;建立工程担保和工程保险制度,完善风险转移体系;建立设计赔偿和设计保险制度,提高设计的深度和精度;健全相关法律制度。     

四只大熊猫部分器官测定与浅析

本文对四只大熊猫的消化管、心、肝、脾、肺和肾经8%～10%的甲醛溶液固定后,分别测定了消化管的长度和内径,以及五种器官的重量,并与肉食兽进行了比较,结果表明大熊猫的消化管和五种主要器官的数值除心和肾相对重量低于肉食兽外,其余器官基本与肉食兽一致。心脏重量减轻可能与大熊猫活动较弱有直接关系;而肾脏重量显著低于肉食兽有待进一步探讨。     

The Demand for Gasoline in China: a Cointegration Analysis

The economic reforms in China since 1979 and consequent increases in disposable income have caused total gasoline consumption to soar nearly 240% between 1980 and 1999. As the growth rate of gasoline consumption is expected to be high due to the increased economic activity resulting from China's re-accession to the WTO, the government must understand the implications for economic growth and balance of payments. Using cointegration techniques, it was found that, between 1980 and 1999, demand for gasoline was relatively inelastic to price changes, both in the short and long terms. The long-run income elasticity was 0.97, implying that the future growth rate of gasoline consumption will be close to the growth rate of the economy, which is predicted to be about 7% per annum from 2001 to 2005, and 5-6% over the decade thereafter.     

《天问》“石林”“虬龙”章句新说

《天问》“石林”“虬龙”章句新说@张燕婴$北京大学中文系!北京100871 @张玉声$新疆师范大学中文系!新疆乌鲁木齐830054~~     

Specific relationships between psychosocial job conditions and job-related stress: A three-level analytic approach

This cross-sectional questionnaire study presents a multi-level analysis on 2565 workers in 188 departments in 36 organizations in the Netherlands. A three-level model is used in which individual workers are nested within departments, which in turn are nested within organizations. Research questions concern (1) the amount and distribution of variance in job-related stress explained for the three levels in the study (individuals, departments, organizations), and (2) the specificity of relationships between psychosocial job demands and job-related stress in the three-level model. Well-being showed slightly more raw variance to be explained at supra-individual levels than strain. The full regression model explained about 35% of the total variance in both work-related strain and well-being. Psychosocial job conditions did not exceed the expected amount of 10 to 15% contribution to this explained variance. These results do not differ from comparable studies that do not use multi-level analysis. The variance distribution in the full model, however, showed unexplained variance to be located at the individual level for both strain and well-being, and at the departmental level only for well-being. This last finding shows a direction for possible improvement of work stress models. Specificity of relationships was also shown: psychological job demands were more strongly related to strain, whereas job content variables (i.e. job variety, job control) were more strongly related to well-being. Results also suggested that social support was more strongly associated with well-being than with strain. Well-being appeared to have a more widely varying range of predictors than strain.     

翻译之“巧笔”赏析

从甄选的翻译"巧"笔中体味赏析翻译之神韵。翻译不但要功于"实",还应功于"虚",要达到"神似"的境界并非一日之功。