美国与欧洲一体化(1942-1957)

二战后期和战后初期 ,欧洲联合运动蓬勃发展。出于对外总体战略的需要 ,美国对早期欧洲一体化的进程极为关注 ,其态度和政策经历了由反对到谨慎支持再到积极介入的转变。作为一种重要的外部动力 ,美国的政策对早期欧洲一体化的顺利进行起到了不可忽视的推动作用 ,具有非常积极的意义     

上海合作组织存在的问题及我国的对策

上海合作组织是当今欧亚大陆最大的一个地区性国际组织,也是第一个由我国倡导创立的区域性国际组织。自创立以来,该组织合作的领域不断扩展、合作的机制日益健全、工作推进日趋务实、国际影响逐渐扩大,但也存在一些问题。对此,我国必须采取相应的对策:加强上海合作组织的合作,以增强组织内部的凝聚力和保持该组织稳步发展的可持续性;应当特别重视中俄两国之间的双边友好合作关系;倡导加强组织内部合作,尽早实现美国从吉尔吉斯斯坦撤出军事基地,等。     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

Remaining childless in affluent economies: a comparison of France, West Germany, Italy and Spain, 1994–2001 Rester sans enfant dans des sociétés d'abondances: une comparaison de la France, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Espagne, 19994–2001

This article explores why women delay childbearing and increase their likelihood to remain childless in Spain, Italy, West Germany and France. We take a macro–micro perspective and show that national institutions influence women’s life transitions, in particular partnership and motherhood. For coupled women, we find two alternative modes out of childlessness. In countries with high direct and indirect child costs, like Spain and Italy, entering a male-breadwinner couple or occupying a stable and high-income position facilitates motherhood, while in the French context motherhood is most likely in a dual-earner partnership.      

Kinship care for children in the UK: messages from research,lessons for policy and practice1

This article presents a comprehensive overview of kinship care, or as it is also known, family and friends care, paying particular attention to the UK child welfare, legal, policy/practice contexts. The aim of the article is to raise awareness, and provide information, about a hitherto largely invisible, yet expanding placement option being widely used in child welfare systems in the UK, in Europe and elsewhere. The article places kinship care within a UK and European child welfare legal context, including the European Convention on Human Rights 1998 [Articles 8 and 14] and European kinship care developments are also highlighted. It contains the main findings of a kinship care research study conducted by the author, based on interviews with children and young people living with kinship carers, as well as with the kinship carers. Following an examination of theoretical and policy issues, the article examines ways forward for developing and supporting kinship care. In the final section, and based on the research findings and literature review, a new paradigm for child welfare is introduced. It is argued that this new paradigm is necessary in order for kinship care practice and policy to develop within a supported and sustainable family support framework.     

Marital disruption and economic well-being: a comparative analysis

Summary.  Though there is a considerable literature concerned with the economic consequences of marital breakdown, there is still substantial disagreement in terms of its magnitude. One of the major problems underlying this debate is how economic well-being is defined. We implement several measures of well-being of monetary and multidimensional nature by using data from the European Community Household Panel. Another issue in this literature concerns selection bias of divorcing couples. We tackle this issue by using a propensity score matching technique combined with a difference-in-differences estimator. Results confirm the importance of the definition of well-being. We find a strong gender bias when using monetary measures but a considerably lower bias, and for some countries non-existent, when using non-monetary indices.     

Small Parts Aspiration, Ingestion, and Choking in Small Children: Findings of the Small Parts Research Project

Obtaining information on current child injury trends and their associated issues is an important factor in developing products that meet or surpass acceptable toy safety boundaries. Understanding these boundaries helps determine safe product design characteristics that reduce the risk of product-related injury. Inchcape Testing Services developed a Small Parts Aspiration, Ingestion, and Choking Hazards Research Project, independent of an ongoing consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) project. The project's purpose was to determine, independent of CPSC, whether a more stringent small parts regulatory standard was necessary and, if so, to ensure that the standard was determined objectively. This article reports on the project's findings relating to critical characteristics (size, shape, and consistency) relative to the victim's age, of objects responsible for child choking injuries and fatalities.     

Probabilistic Risk Analyses: NRC Programs and Perspectives

The historical basis and more recent activities and products of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in the Atomic Energy Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are reviewed. Current NRC program activities and objectives are described. The author's opinions on the best uses of PRA are presented.     

WCD的水坝偏见--印度、加拿大、中国评世界水坝委员会的报告

2001年,由世界自然保护协会和世界银行发起成立的临时组织世界水坝委员会提出<水坝与发展--新的决策框架,世界水坝委员会的报告>,其基本精神是不赞成水坝的修建,因此在国际上曾经引起公众对水坝认识的混乱.印度、加拿大、中国等国家水坝委员会对报告中的某些观点提出了批判.     

美国加强在华势力的筑基的时期

美国在中国的经济扩展，迟于欧洲各国及日本。一次大战后，美国在中国从政治、经济、文化等方面加强活动，以增强在中国的竞争力。中国留美学生和美国“世界主义者”对这些活动也起了促进作用。美国这些努力为３０年代中美关系的发展打下了基础。