美国与欧洲一体化(1942-1957)

二战后期和战后初期 ,欧洲联合运动蓬勃发展。出于对外总体战略的需要 ,美国对早期欧洲一体化的进程极为关注 ,其态度和政策经历了由反对到谨慎支持再到积极介入的转变。作为一种重要的外部动力 ,美国的政策对早期欧洲一体化的顺利进行起到了不可忽视的推动作用 ,具有非常积极的意义     

上海合作组织存在的问题及我国的对策

上海合作组织是当今欧亚大陆最大的一个地区性国际组织,也是第一个由我国倡导创立的区域性国际组织。自创立以来,该组织合作的领域不断扩展、合作的机制日益健全、工作推进日趋务实、国际影响逐渐扩大,但也存在一些问题。对此,我国必须采取相应的对策:加强上海合作组织的合作,以增强组织内部的凝聚力和保持该组织稳步发展的可持续性;应当特别重视中俄两国之间的双边友好合作关系;倡导加强组织内部合作,尽早实现美国从吉尔吉斯斯坦撤出军事基地,等。     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

对苏东剧变教训的再反思

苏联东欧社会主义国家发生剧变的原因是多方面、多层次的,无论是在执政党建设、发展战略和经济建设方面,还是在改革指导思想、改革方向,以及对待马克思主义基本态度等方面,其教训是非常深刻的。事实进一步证明,要建设和发展社会主义,必须坚持和发展马克思主义,必须坚持和改善党的领导,必须结合本国实际,走出一条有特色的社会主义道路。     

解读《潨川文会》

阐述了呈坎《潨川文会》的发展历程,介绍其四个序和会规,并纠正《呈坎的文会》一文对《潨川文会》解读的一些不确之处,说明呈坎乃至整个徽州的文会组织,在继承和弘扬当地重文兴教、重视人才培养和提高民众整体素质优秀传统方面所起的作用非常巨大。其中有许多经验很值得我们借鉴,这就是为什么要重温这段历史的目的和意义之所在。     

Remaining childless in affluent economies: a comparison of France, West Germany, Italy and Spain, 1994–2001 Rester sans enfant dans des sociétés d'abondances: une comparaison de la France, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Espagne, 19994–2001

This article explores why women delay childbearing and increase their likelihood to remain childless in Spain, Italy, West Germany and France. We take a macro–micro perspective and show that national institutions influence women’s life transitions, in particular partnership and motherhood. For coupled women, we find two alternative modes out of childlessness. In countries with high direct and indirect child costs, like Spain and Italy, entering a male-breadwinner couple or occupying a stable and high-income position facilitates motherhood, while in the French context motherhood is most likely in a dual-earner partnership.      

Kinship care for children in the UK: messages from research,lessons for policy and practice1

This article presents a comprehensive overview of kinship care, or as it is also known, family and friends care, paying particular attention to the UK child welfare, legal, policy/practice contexts. The aim of the article is to raise awareness, and provide information, about a hitherto largely invisible, yet expanding placement option being widely used in child welfare systems in the UK, in Europe and elsewhere. The article places kinship care within a UK and European child welfare legal context, including the European Convention on Human Rights 1998 [Articles 8 and 14] and European kinship care developments are also highlighted. It contains the main findings of a kinship care research study conducted by the author, based on interviews with children and young people living with kinship carers, as well as with the kinship carers. Following an examination of theoretical and policy issues, the article examines ways forward for developing and supporting kinship care. In the final section, and based on the research findings and literature review, a new paradigm for child welfare is introduced. It is argued that this new paradigm is necessary in order for kinship care practice and policy to develop within a supported and sustainable family support framework.     

Marital disruption and economic well-being: a comparative analysis

Summary.  Though there is a considerable literature concerned with the economic consequences of marital breakdown, there is still substantial disagreement in terms of its magnitude. One of the major problems underlying this debate is how economic well-being is defined. We implement several measures of well-being of monetary and multidimensional nature by using data from the European Community Household Panel. Another issue in this literature concerns selection bias of divorcing couples. We tackle this issue by using a propensity score matching technique combined with a difference-in-differences estimator. Results confirm the importance of the definition of well-being. We find a strong gender bias when using monetary measures but a considerably lower bias, and for some countries non-existent, when using non-monetary indices.     

浅析俄罗斯与中东欧国家的关系

论述了冷战时期,苏联与中东欧建立的既是一种战略联盟关系,也是一种极不对等的国家关系;苏东剧变后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家都处于政治经济的转型期,双方关系受历史阴影的影响较明显;提出如今面对北约和欧盟东扩的新的历史条件,如何摆脱不利因素的影响,建立正常的新型国家关系是摆在他们面前的共同问题。     

欧美企业克服传统预算管理缺陷的最新实践

由于传统预算管理存在缺乏灵活性、缺乏效率等缺陷,欧美企业采取了一系列的改进措施,如广泛运用信息一体化技术、注重预算与战略的结合、运用一体化的预测模型等方法和手段提高预算的灵活性和效率,取得了良好的效果.