关于苏联模式的反思——中共十一届三中全会前后的邓小平

中共十一届三中全会,是建国以来党的历史上具有深远意义的历史转折的会议。在这次会议前后,邓小平对苏联模式做了多次重要论述,从多视角、多层面对苏联模式进行了反思。这对中共吸取历史的经验教训,实行改革开放政策,探索中国特色社会主义道路有着重要意义。      

欧债危机环境中资产组合ES模型比较研究

本文以中国上证综指、德国法兰克福DAX指数、美国S&P500指数为研究对象,分别运用DCC-GARCH及时变Copula-EVT模型建模,探讨了欧债危机爆发后股市间相依关系的变化状况。在此基础上,将三个股指收益两两组合,分别建立了各类模型假定下的资产组合预期损失ES模型,并通过后验分析方法,探讨了危机爆发后,各类ES风险模型测度精度的变化状况及对比结果。实证研究表明：欧债危机爆发后,时变Copula-EVT-ES的风险测度准确度明显高于DCC-GARCH-ES模型;边缘分布模型的选择对于时变Copula-EVT-ES模型的测度精度具有重要影响。综合对比分析发现,在金融市场极端波动的状况下,能够捕捉杠杆效应且善于刻画厚尾特征的时变t-Copula-AR（1）-GJR（1,1）-EVT-ES模型能够取得相对较好的风险测度效果。     

回顾与反思：中国语境中的艾特玛托夫研究

艾特玛托夫是苏联时代吉尔吉斯地区的一个著名作家。国内关于艾特玛托夫近三十年的学术研究历程,从20世纪80年代单维的政治-人性批评,到当下多维视角的文化批评,可以看做中国文艺批评观念演变的一个缩影,即从80年代的＂新启蒙主义＂到90年代的形式主义批评,再到21世纪的文化批评;同时也体现了中国学者研究俄苏文学的方法论转向,亦即从外部研究到内部研究继而走向内、外部研究的融合互渗。     

European Communication Monitor 2009. An institutionalized view of how public relations and communication management professionals face the economic and media crises in Europe

The European Communication Monitor (ECM) is an extensive longitudinal research project to monitor trends in public relations and communication management and analyze the changing framework for the profession in Europe. The 2009 ECM edition identifies the main characteristics of individual practitioners and the organizations where they work. The aim is to monitor the challenges for communication management in the recession and media crisis; the development of the sub disciplines, instruments and strategic issues; and the influence on management decisions. Additionally ECM 2009 evaluates three specific areas: internal communication, research in communication and interactive communication.     

Systems thinking: fostering collaboration and connections to strengthen the field. A conversation with Umberta Telfener

Umberta Telfener is a highly respected figure known for her diverse contributions to various facets of family and systemic therapy. Her leadership style has earned her a reputation as somewhat of a ‘cultural anthropologist,’ reflecting her aptitude for creating connections, establishing relationships, and developing partnerships. Her unique ‘Umberta style’ is known for boundless energy, active leadership, and fierce commitment to challenging the status quo. Despite being in office for just a year at the European Family Therapy Association (EFTA), Umberta has conceived and developed numerous projects, establishing networks with practitioners, and systemic thinkers across the world. Rooted in classical philosophical training, her pursuit aligns with the systematic study of fundamental questions about existence, reason, knowledge, value, mind, and language. Umberta's role reminds one of a ‘Chasqui,’ a Quechua term for a ‘messenger,’ which aptly describes her agile networking skills. She actively communicates and shares vital messages, supporting the international community of systemic practitioners. This paper is based on an in-person conversation held in July 2023 at Umberta's country home in Tuscany. Our discussion delves into her extensive professional experience, from training at the Philadelphia Child Guidance Clinic, being mentored by Boscolo and Cecchin in Milan, to her leadership role as the current EFTA president. Umberta reflects on early pioneers who influenced her thinking and her impactful work with systems.     

Modeling Ship Transportation Risk

This article presents results from the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) project 'Safety of Shipping in Coastal Waters' (SAFECO). The project was performed by ten European partners during the period 1995-1998. The principal aim of the SAFECO project was to determine the influences that could increase the safety of shipping in coastal waters by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to the marine accident risk level. The work reported here focuses on the Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) that was further developed during the SAFECO project. This paper presents the methods used by MARCS, as well as data and results from a 'demonstration of concept' case study covering the North Sea area. The estimated accident frequencies (number of accidents per year) were compared with historical accident data, to demonstrate the validity of the modeling approach. Reasonable (within a factor of 5) to good (within a factor of 2) agreement between calculated accident frequencies and observed accident statistics was generally obtained. However, significant discrepancies were identified for some ship types and accident categories. The risk model has particular problems with estimating the accident frequency for drift grounding in general and powered grounding for ferries. It was concluded that these discrepancies are related to uncertainties in several areas, specifically in the risk model algorithms, the traffic data, the error and failure probability data, and the historical accident statistics.     

论前苏联解体的民族因素

前苏联解体的重要原因之一 ,是民族问题处理不当。它成为反面教材 ,给我们留下了深刻的启示。     

近代中国著作权法制的实践探索

在著作权法制建设面向国际、面向未来的趋势下,文章从法学和史学的视野,对近代中国著作权的国内外法制实践进行探索和总结,引发人们对中国著作权法制早期实践历程的关注和思考,以期激起人们主动参与到我国著作权保护的实践中来,以更理性、更宏观、更务实的态度不断完善我国的著作权法律制度。     

欧盟法中学生跨国平等受教育权的实现

在受教育者 (学生 )跨国受教育权的实现方面 ,欧洲法院的司法判例创建了两条线索 :职业培训———教育准入———平等对待 ;工作者———社会福利———平等对待。两条线路异曲同工 ,都建设性地扩展了学生在异国享有平等受教育的权利 ,从而实现了欧盟范围内教育资源的共享。而新的欧盟公民平等对待观开辟了一个资源共享的新天地 ,它直接赋予了欧盟公民在欧共体条约中的权利 ,其中包括欧共体条约第 12条平等对待的权利。     

20年代初期苏俄扶持外蒙古独立评析

20世纪20年代初期,苏俄从确保其国家安全需要出发,无视中国对外蒙古拥有主权的事实,一直积极大力扶持外蒙古独立,分裂中国.苏俄的上述做法,完全违背了列宁所阐述的马克思主义的民族政策原则,表现出十足的民族利己主义和大国沙文主义.