The impact of the twin financial crises

We focus on the first 20 years of the Euro, from 1999 to 2019, and we split this period into two approximate decades to examine the performance of three benchmarks: the real GDP quarterly growth, the annualized real per capita GDP changes and unemployment. These illustrate that the underperformance of Europe is more evident during the second decade. Searching for causes we find that the Global Financial Crisis was an exogenous shock to the EU but its impact was large in both the U.S. and the EU. One major reason is that the U.S. responded quickly and aggressively both fiscally and via an unconventional monetary policy. The Euro area was constrained by a European Central Bank that focused on price stability, and fiscal policy was not much of an option. The second shock of the Sovereign Debt Crisis was endogenous to the Euro area and it, more than the Global Financial Crisis, revealed the original weaknesses and fragility of the European monetary union. This financial fragility quickly translated into declines in aggregate demand and economic underperformance.     

Modeling Ship Transportation Risk

This article presents results from the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) project 'Safety of Shipping in Coastal Waters' (SAFECO). The project was performed by ten European partners during the period 1995-1998. The principal aim of the SAFECO project was to determine the influences that could increase the safety of shipping in coastal waters by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to the marine accident risk level. The work reported here focuses on the Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) that was further developed during the SAFECO project. This paper presents the methods used by MARCS, as well as data and results from a 'demonstration of concept' case study covering the North Sea area. The estimated accident frequencies (number of accidents per year) were compared with historical accident data, to demonstrate the validity of the modeling approach. Reasonable (within a factor of 5) to good (within a factor of 2) agreement between calculated accident frequencies and observed accident statistics was generally obtained. However, significant discrepancies were identified for some ship types and accident categories. The risk model has particular problems with estimating the accident frequency for drift grounding in general and powered grounding for ferries. It was concluded that these discrepancies are related to uncertainties in several areas, specifically in the risk model algorithms, the traffic data, the error and failure probability data, and the historical accident statistics.     

欧债危机环境中资产组合ES模型比较研究

本文以中国上证综指、德国法兰克福DAX指数、美国S&P500指数为研究对象,分别运用DCC-GARCH及时变Copula-EVT模型建模,探讨了欧债危机爆发后股市间相依关系的变化状况。在此基础上,将三个股指收益两两组合,分别建立了各类模型假定下的资产组合预期损失ES模型,并通过后验分析方法,探讨了危机爆发后,各类ES风险模型测度精度的变化状况及对比结果。实证研究表明：欧债危机爆发后,时变Copula-EVT-ES的风险测度准确度明显高于DCC-GARCH-ES模型;边缘分布模型的选择对于时变Copula-EVT-ES模型的测度精度具有重要影响。综合对比分析发现,在金融市场极端波动的状况下,能够捕捉杠杆效应且善于刻画厚尾特征的时变t-Copula-AR（1）-GJR（1,1）-EVT-ES模型能够取得相对较好的风险测度效果。     

欧洲高等教育质量评鉴保证体系之进程

在高等教育大众化的发展趋势下，构建一个什么样的高等教育质量体系，如何保证与提高高等教育的质量，是高等教育发展中的首要问题。就欧洲国家而言，于1999年签署《博洛尼亚宣言》并开始欧洲高等教育区建设的进程，其高等教育质量评鉴保证体系的建构和发展一直是博洛尼亚进程中最基本和核心的组成部分．为促进欧洲高等教育一体化做出贡献。因此，本文通过对欧洲高等教育质量评鉴保证体系的发展历程和最新进展的概述，并结合该体系的执行标准和准则，从而形成一个全面精要的介绍，以期对我国高等教育的质量评估和发展带来些许启示。     

The individual in Japanese history: Parallels to and divergences from the European experience

This paper shows that Japan underwent a sequence of historical periods during which the level of technical development and the place of the individual in society paralleled that of similar periods in Europe. Particular attention is paid to 16th-century Japan, a period remarkably similar to the European Renaissance in its individualism and socioeconomic and cultural vitality. In both Japan and Western Europe, this renaissance followed the breakdown of an imperium and its replacement by a feudal system. The historical parallel continues with those parts of Europe in which absolutist governments were successfully imposed, since Japan underwent a similar phenomenon, accompanied by a similar decline in individualism and in technological development. Although no definitive conclusions can be reached, the paper explores the implications of these parallels for our understanding of both Japan and the general historical and psychological processes involved in the growth of individualism and technology.     

Statistical study ofTrichogramma brassicae efficiency in relation with characteristics of the European corn borer egg masses

The efficiency ofTrichogramma brassicae inundative releases in biological control of the European corn borerOstrinia nubilalis was analyzed in seven plots of 504 plants, each situated in a corn field naturally infested by the European corn borer. Different strategies ofTrichogramma releases were defined on the seven plots. These inundative releases were concluded to be highly efficient even on plots where there were either no parasitoid release or only one parasitoid release at the beginning of the egg mass laying period.     

灾难中的转变:黑死病对欧洲文化的影响

黑死病给人类带来了空前的灾难,也对欧洲文化产生了重大的影响。它从思想和政治上动摇了中世纪天主教会的专制地位,为文艺复兴的理念与价值的萌发提供了适宜的环境;它打破了人口僵局,有利于经济的长远发展和技术的改进,为文化的复苏奠定了物质基础。当欧洲从瘟疫的阴影里步出时,相伴而来的是人文主义、个人主义、世俗主义的诞生,以及文学新潮流的涌现,等等。黑死病未必是导致这些现象发生的直接原因,但它无疑对文化的转型起到了催化剂的作用。     

Introduction: Open Markets versus Welfare Citizenship: Conflicting Approaches to Policy Convergence in Europe

Few would have predicted the rapid progress of the EU in developing common economic institutions 20 or 30 years ago, although many commentators might have foreseen the relatively slow development of convergent social policies. This paper sets the European debate in the context of the path‐breaking work of Polanyi and Schumpeter at the end of the Second World War. It argues that the economic institutions of the EU are at least as important as the social policy institutions in understanding current developments, and suggests that a commitment to a broadly liberal market agenda at the economic level constrains and moulds social policies.     

论"三个代表"与苏东剧变的经验教训

苏东剧变的根本原因是,执政党在推动先进生产力发展方面多有失误、少有作为,致使人民群众得不到切实的经济政治文化利益;执政党背离了人民的根本利益,同时又推行了思想多元化,放弃了马克思主义的指导地位.我们党取得社会主义建设巨大成就的根本原因是推动了先进生产力的发展,使人民群众获得了切实的经济政治文化利益,并始终坚持了马列主义、毛泽东思想和邓小平理论的指导.鲜明的对比表明推动先进生产力发展是党保持先进性的物质基础;代表中国先进文化的前进方向是党保持先进性的思想基础;代表人民的根本利益是党的本质要求.     

90年代前欧洲一体化两大理论的历史演变

至20世纪90年代初,西方国家形成了关于欧洲一体化的两大理论流派——超国家主义和政府间主义。前者提出,推动欧洲国家走向一体化的决定因素来自于各种超国家力量,其归宿将是欧洲联邦。相反,后者认为一体化是各国政府安排的,欧洲联合不会超出邦联的范畴。欧洲一体化早期,超国家主义盛行,进入60-70年代,政府间主义获得了广阔的发展空间。二者看似矛盾,实际上相辅相成;只有结合起来,才能对欧洲一体化动因和归宿做出较为圆满的解释。