"天书降神"新议--北宋与契丹的文化竞争

宋真宗"天书降神"一事,不但为当时"不语怪力乱神"的儒者反对,亦为今世秉后见之明,崇尚"理性"、"科学"的学人严厉批判.但元儒修撰<宋史>,于此曾表"同情之理解".本文即以此为起点,以考据为基础,试图揭示"天书降神"背后的文化意蕴和实际效果,并提出与亨廷顿"文明冲突"(the clash of civilizations)不同的观念--"文化竞争"(the cultural struggle).     

On evaluating how well a biomarker can predict treatment response with survival data

One of the objectives of personalized medicine is to take treatment decisions based on a biomarker measurement. Therefore, it is often interesting to evaluate how well a biomarker can predict the response to a treatment. To do so, a popular methodology consists of using a regression model and testing for an interaction between treatment assignment and biomarker. However, the existence of an interaction is not sufficient for a biomarker to be predictive. It is only necessary. Hence, the use of the marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve has been recommended. In addition to evaluate how well a single continuous biomarker predicts treatment response, it can further help to define an optimal threshold. This curve displays the risk of a binary outcome as a function of the quantiles of the biomarker, for each treatment group. Methods that assume a binary outcome or rely on a proportional hazard model for a time‐to‐event outcome have been proposed to estimate this curve. In this work, we propose some extensions for censored data. They rely on a time‐dependent logistic model, and we propose to estimate this model via inverse probability of censoring weighting. We present simulations results and three applications to prostate cancer, liver cirrhosis, and lung cancer data. They suggest that a large number of events need to be observed to define a threshold with sufficient accuracy for clinical usefulness. They also illustrate that when the treatment effect varies with the time horizon which defines the outcome, then the optimal threshold also depends on this time horizon.     

农村邻避型环境群体性事件引入行政诉讼禁令判决的分析

行政诉讼禁令判决,是指根据行政相对人的申请,人民法院作出的,要求行政机关不得实施某项行政行为的判决,是法院为制止违法行政行为可能造成的潜在性风险的一种预防性的判决方式。我国农村邻避型环境群体性事件中,现有权利救济机制存在环境司法治理模式边缘化、政府环境风险监管责任乏力以及事后救济难以恢复生态环境等缺陷,因此,亟有必要在农村邻避型环境群体性事件中引入行政诉讼禁令判决并进行相应的制度构建,从而达到防范环境风险、树立司法权威和保障农民环境权益的目的。     

话语伦理学的一次文学实践——以胡风事件为例

胡风事件的发生距今已有半个世纪,但回想起来仍令人震惊不已。与过去相比,今日的文学环境显然有很大的改善,但前些日子的韩（寒）白（烨）之争仍让笔者心存不安,中国人的非理性由来已久,由此可见一斑。改革开放以来,世界先进文化的理念不断涌入,哈贝马斯提出的交往理性和话语伦理学的理论便为我们解决这一问题提供了一个很好的参考工具。     

理性极限及其突破断想

思维具有历史的特征.而理性思维只是人类思维的一个阶段.因此,理性思维及与之相对应的理性哲学都无法超越自身的历史局限.理性哲学缺失与当下生活的对应的根本原因就在于理性极限.而理性的偏见与虚妄的悲剧价值预设正是这种极限的表现.打破理性极限的前提是将理性还原于历史中并具体列出突破理性哲学的叙述方案.     

我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应

使用事件研究法,分析了我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应。研究表明,我国公司发行可转换债券后市场没有出现显著负的反应,与股权再融资的市场反应明显不同,与国外可转换债券发行的市场反应有差异。政府的奖优政策是可转换债券市场反应特殊性的重要原因。     

The Solidary Relationship’s Consequences for the Ebb and Flow of Activism: Collaborative Evidence from Life-History Interviews and Social Media Event Analysis,

Acting in solidarity with deprived others has become a central topic in social movement research. The explanations of solidarity activism or political altruism are few. However, social movement researchers have claimed that solidarity with out-of-group others is a by-product of in-group interaction. In contrast, we argue that out-group interaction with the deprived other and the formation of a solidary relationship is central to the ebb and flow of solidarity activism. We investigate the Danish refugee solidarity movement and show that the meeting with the deprived other 1) brings about an interaction order which makes an ethical demand on the activists to care for the other both within the bounds of the situations and in the future; 2) enacts and amplifies activists’ values and beliefs because the deprived other becomes an exemplar of the injustice and the need to help the broader group of people in the same fragile situation. We develop and test this theory drawing on 42 life-history interviews and a social media dataset containing a panel of 87,455 activists participating in refugee solidarity groups.     

中小企业税务筹划探析

税收作为国家宏观经济调控的手段,调控作用愈来愈明显,为企业税务筹划提供了施展的空间,尽管中小企业税务筹划的主观愿望是为减轻税负,客观上却促进了中小企业在国家税收杠杆引导下,走优化产业的道路,反过来,对完善税法又起到了促进作用。使中小企业正视税务筹划、区分偷税、漏税以正确选择合法的税务筹划方法。     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

社会资本与群体性事件的有效治理

社会资本与群体性事件的产生之间存在一定的内在逻辑关联,社会资本的存量是有效预防和治理群体性事件的重要资源.然而,当前我国社会资本发育不成熟,在预防和治理群体性事件的过程中,必须壮大社会资本,加强对各基层党政干部和普通民众的法治理念和公共精神的培育,转变政府治理模式,完善防治群体性事件的工作机制并大力培育民间组织,实现民众合法权益的有效维护和保障.