Who are the active and central actors in the ‘rising civil society’ in Mexico?

The debate about the rise of civil society in Mexico suggests that the processes of political and economic liberalization are multiple and uneven and, thus, have different and contradictory effects on different social groups. This study takes such arguments into account and examines the nature of collective identities and social networks that are more likely to be mobilized in the rising civil society. Who, with what types of social networks and identities, are the active actors in this rising civil society in Mexico? This study also attempts to identify the central actors who take an active part in multi-sector coalitions. As such a broad coalition often leaves profound effects on politics and society, it is vital to ask which actors are likely to take an important step toward multi-sector coalition making. Using a catalog of 1797 protest campaigns collected from three Mexican newspapers between 1964 and 2000, event frequency analysis is employed to find active actors and social network analysis – blockmodel method and degree centrality measure – is applied to uncover central actors. The analyses reveal that while workers, peasants, or students continue to be very active, the centrality of these actors in contentious networks and coalitions has not increased. New central actors in the rising civil society turn out to be civic associations and NGOs formed around single issues, such as environment, retirement, and human rights. When a multi-sector coalition occurs in contemporary Mexico, NGOs and civic associations are likely to play a crucial role in it.     

基于城市营销的中国城市大型体育赛事选择研究

随着经济全球化飞速发展,大型体育赛事逐渐成为主办城市营销自己的重要载体和工具,但并非每个城市都适宜举办大型体育赛事,主办城市必须选择与自身发展相适宜的大型体育赛事。本文首先从城市选择大型体育赛事进行经济分析,剖析影响城市举办大型体育赛事的赛事因素和城市因素,最后系统研究中国城市选择大型体育赛事的非均衡发展战略,以及从城市群和各类城市两个角度详细分析我国城市大型体育赛事选择思路。     

Control‐based imputation for sensitivity analyses in informative censoring for recurrent event data

In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control‐based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution. We impute the number of events after dropped out and correct the variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure. We apply the method to an application of sitagliptin study.     

A new estimation method for Weibull-type tails based on the mean excess function

Studying the right tail of a distribution, one can classify the distributions into three classes based on the extreme value index γ$\gamma$. The class γ>0$\gamma >0$ corresponds to Pareto-type or heavy tailed distributions, while γ<0$\gamma <0$ indicates that the underlying distribution has a finite endpoint. The Weibull-type distributions form an important subgroup within the Gumbel class with γ=0$\gamma =0$. The tail behaviour can then be specified using the Weibull tail index. Classical estimators of this index show severe bias. In this paper we present a new estimation approach based on the mean excess function, which exhibits improved bias and mean squared error. The asserted properties are supported by simulation experiments and asymptotic results. Illustrations with real life data sets are provided.     

Asymptotic distributions for the intervals estimators of the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities

Under appropriate long range dependence conditions, the point process of exceedances of a stationary sequence weakly converges to a homogeneous compound Poisson point process. This limiting point process can be characterized by the extremal index and the cluster-size probabilities. In this paper we address the problem of estimating these quantities and we consider the intervals estimators introduced in Ferro and Segers [2003. Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 545–556] and in Ferro [2004. Statistical methods for clusters of extreme values. Ph.D. Thesis, Lancaster University]. We establish asymptotic weak convergence to Gaussian random variables and we give their asymptotic variance.     

Interval estimation: An information theoretic approach

ABSTRACT

We develop here an alternative information theoretic method of inference of problems in which all of the observed information is in terms of intervals. We focus on the unconditional case in which the observed information is in terms the minimal and maximal values at each period. Given interval data, we infer the joint and marginal distributions of the interval variable and its range. Our inferential procedure is based on entropy maximization subject to multidimensional moment conditions and normalization in which the entropy is defined over discretized intervals. The discretization is based on theory or empirically observed quantities. The number of estimated parameters is independent of the discretization so the level of discretization does not change the fundamental level of complexity of our model. As an example, we apply our method to study the weather pattern for Los Angeles and New York City across the last century.     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

网络商业谣言的成因探析——以湖南隆回金银花事件为例

从湖南隆回金银花事件可以看出网络商业谣言的传播实质上是一个复杂的社会信息传播过程。这一过程包括若干不可或缺的要素,而要素间的制约/影响关系又是与特定具体的社会历史条件联系在一起的。网络商业谣言从生成到传播扩散至一定规模,与社会环境、媒介环境、受众基础有着很大的关系。市场竞争激烈而商业道德缺失的社会环境是网络商业谣言产生的温床。金银花产品自身的鉴定问题增加了事件的模糊性,导致自身易发谣言。受众恐惧心理和科学常识缺乏等特点也在一定程度上助长了谣言的传播。而媒介既是网络商业谣言的传播渠道,也是治理网络商业谣言的有力工具。     

Marriage and separation risks among German cohabiters: Differences between types of cohabiter

We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters’ intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971–73 and 1981–83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent.     

Which Spouse Initiates Marital Separation When There Are Children Involved?

This report examines whether the presence of children in marriage differentially influences the risk of wives or husbands initiating separation. The analytic sample consists of 9,118 first marriages from the Households, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey (2001). Using event history and competing risks analysis, I find weak evidence that wives are less likely than husbands to initiate when they have infants, and husbands are less likely than wives to initiate when children are school age or older. Overall, the results show that children deter marital separation for both wives and husbands, indicating that gender differences in the decision to separate are likely attributable to other factors such as a willingness to remain in an unhappy marriage.