A hierarchical model for extreme wind speeds

Summary.  A typical extreme value analysis is often carried out on the basis of simplistic inferential procedures, though the data being analysed may be structurally complex. Here we develop a hierarchical model for hourly gust maximum wind speed data, which attempts to identify site and seasonal effects for the marginal densities of hourly maxima, as well as for the serial dependence at each location. A Gaussian model for the random effects exploits the meteorological structure in the data, enabling increased precision for inferences at individual sites and in individual seasons. The Bayesian framework that is adopted is also exploited to obtain predictive return level estimates at each site, which incorporate uncertainty due to model estimation, as well as the randomness that is inherent in the processes that are involved.     

A robust prediction error criterion for pareto modelling of upper tails

Estimation of the Pareto tail index from extreme order statistics is an important problem in many settings. The upper tail of the distribution, where data are sparse, is typically fitted with a model, such as the Pareto model, from which quantities such as probabilities associated with extreme events are deduced. The success of this procedure relies heavily not only on the choice of the estimator for the Pareto tail index but also on the procedure used to determine the number k of extreme order statistics that are used for the estimation. The authors develop a robust prediction error criterion for choosing k and estimating the Pareto index. A Monte Carlo study shows the good performance of the new estimator and the analysis of real data sets illustrates that a robust procedure for selection, and not just for estimation, is needed.     

公司信用危机的事后救济模式--PEF制度研究

PEF制度盛行于日美与欧盟,是对公司信用危机进行事后救济的一种典型模式.意在掌握具有一定经营基础但负有过多债务的企业,通过PEF的经营方式使负债企业同关联企业分离从而再生,对解除不良债权,策动负债企业进入合理化的轨道有一定的借鉴意义.     

论法律事实事件

[要]法律事件应称作法律事实事件。作为法律事实的法律事实事件与作为免责事由的不可抗力或意外事件并无实质区别。不可抗力与意外事件的区别，仅在于主体的范围不同：法律事实事件是当事人无法预见，不可克服、不可避免的法律事实。     

浅析全概率公式的应用

归蚋总结全概率公式的理解方法、求解问题的分析方法、解题步骤以及应用此公式时应注意的事项等几点教学体会，旨在使学生能够真正理解和掌握全概率公式，从而更好地解决这类实际问题。     

Binary Event String Analysis: A Compact Numerical Representation of the Event Tree

While the event tree is a useful diagrammatic aid to an appreciation of various event sequence possibilities, it is of a nature that suggests no obvious manner in which the associated probability data may be compiled as computer input. Here, we propose a complementary numerical representation of scenario possibilities which incorporates probability data in a succinct fashion. While its mnemonic properties facilitate the logical development of a system's characteristics, its compactness and unambiguity permit its utilization directly as computer input.     

Giving Memory a Hand: Instructing Children to Gesture Enhances their Event Recall

To investigate the influence of different kinds of gesture on children’s memory, 60 6- to 7-year-old children participated in an event conducted by the experimenters (“visiting the pirate”) and were interviewed to assess memory for the event approximately 2 weeks later. Children were assigned to 1 of 4 conditions; in 3 conditions, gesture was possible (gesture-instructed, gesture-modelled, gesture-allowed) whereas in the fourth condition (gesture-not allowed), children’s hands were constrained. The amount of gesture engaged in was limited but was greatest in the gesture-instructed condition. Children in the gesture-instructed condition, who were asked to gesture during the interview, recalled more than did those in the other conditions. Further, relative to children in the gesture-modelled and gesture-allowed conditions, children in the gesture-instructed condition conveyed significantly more information in gesture that had not also been reported verbally. Although further research is necessary to understand the underlying mechanism, the findings suggest that instructing children to gesture as well as verbally recall an experience has cognitive and communicative benefits. Elizabeth Stevanoni and Karen Salmon are affiliated with the School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. We thank the children, parents, teachers and principals at the participating schools, St Michaels and Villa Maria Primary Schools, and acknowledge Kay Pegg for help with data collection.     

宣科诉吴学源及《艺术评论》案的事件营销分析

在注意力经济时代,事件营销可以迅速吸引媒体与社会公众的注意力,以一种轻松、自然的方式提升品牌知名度。吴学源和《艺术评论》的名誉侵权事件,为"营销大师"宣科借势与造势,两年时间共计催生了21篇云南省内报纸报道,形成社会热点讨论话题,极大地扩展了宣科本人与《纳西古乐》的知名度。本文对2004年~2005年的报纸内容进行分析,逐步还原了这次事件营销案例,重现其话题构造、议程设置及传播扩散历程,并揭示了事件营销所具有的新闻、广告与公共关系效应。     

什么样的民族政策可以保证国家长治久安(上)

“第二代民族政策”没有新意;“第二代民族政策”观点举证严重失实;本文从理论到实际例证,对“第二代民族政策”提出了质疑.     

Generalized Jackknife-Based Estimators for Univariate Extreme-Value Modeling

In this article, we revisit the importance of the generalized jackknife in the construction of reliable semi-parametric estimates of some parameters of extreme or even rare events. The generalized jackknife statistic is applied to a minimum-variance reduced-bias estimator of a positive extreme value index—a primary parameter in statistics of extremes. A couple of refinements are proposed and a simulation study shows that these are able to achieve a lower mean square error. A real data illustration is also provided.