关于命运问题的理论思考

探讨命运问题的理论发展渊源,给出一个科学的唯物的命运观,不仅具有理论意义,更有重 大的实践意义。     

替罗非班联合多巴酚丁胺治疗急性心肌梗死伴心衰患者的临床疗效观察

目的：探讨替罗非班联合多巴酚丁胺对急性心肌梗死（ AMI）患者并发心力衰竭的临床疗效。方法选择于我院就诊的未接受溶栓或急诊PCI治疗的急性心肌梗死并发心力衰竭的患者117例,随机分为对照组（ A组）、多巴酚丁胺组（ B组）、替罗非班组（ C组）和替罗非班联合多巴酚丁胺组（ D组）。检测治疗前后血中B型钠尿肽（ brain natriuretic peptide , BNP）水平和记录超声心动图左室射血分数（ left ventricular ejection fraction ,LVEF）的变化并记录住院一周患者存活率。结果四组患者治疗前BNP、LVEF比较无统计学差异（P＞0.05）,治疗后差异有统计学意义,D组患者治疗后血BNP水平低于B组、C组和A组（P＜0.05）,LVEF及存活率高于B组、C组和A组（P＜0.05）,B、C组治疗后血BNP水平及LVEF、存活率分别低于和高于A组（ P＜0.05）。结论替罗非班联合多巴酚丁胺对未行溶栓或急诊PCI治疗的AMI并发心衰的患者有较大的应用价值。     

保险精算中的一个破产模型的改进

将古典的破产模型中的保险费收到的次数看作是复合泊松过程 ,将每次的保险费看作是服从指数分布的随机变量 ,从而对古典的破产模型进行了推广 ,并给出了相应的破产概率的上限。     

结构可靠性分析中蒙特卡洛模拟的应用

本文讨论了蒙特卡洛模拟在结构可靠性分析中的应用 ,并给出了直接抽样法中失效概率的计算公式和置信区间     

公司信用风险研究的贝叶斯方法

作为一种充分利用各种信息的贝叶斯方法,在金融领域已经得到越来越重要的应用,包括了样本和非样本信息的统计方法。本文在结构模型框架下,应用贝叶斯方法考虑违约风险的先验信息和专家信息,估计Morton信用风险结构模型的参数,求出违约概率的后验估计,最后本文给出一个经验应用。     

论民事诉讼的证明标准

证据法是诉讼法的核心。在正当程序呼声日益高涨的今天,我国证据法典的制定已刻不容缓。证明标准的确立,是制定证据法典所不可回避的首要问题。本文对中国和西方现行的民事诉讼的证明标准进行了对比分析,提出了判断证明标准良莠的科学依据。     

测量数据处理中的Bayes理论与最大熵方法

以Bayes理论和Jaynes的最大熵方法为基础,分析了测量数据概率空间的特点,提出了将Bayes理论与最大熵方法结合,利用最大熵方法求取Bayes理论中的先验分布和似然函数的测量数据PDF反演方法。实验结果证明此方法的反演结果优于单独运用Bayes或最大熵方法计算的反演结果。     

A RANDOMIZED LONGITUDINAL PLAY-THE-WINNER DESIGN FOR REPEATED BINARY DATA

In some clinical trials with two treatment arms, the patients enter the study at different times and are then allocated to one of two treatment groups. It is important for ethical reasons that there is greater probability of allocating a patient to the group that has displayed more favourable responses up to the patient's entry time. There are many adaptive designs in the literature to meet this ethical constraint, but most have a single binary response. Often the binary response is longitudinal in nature, being observed repeatedly over different monitoring times. This paper develops a randomized longitudinal play‐the‐winner design for such binary responses which meets the ethical constraint. Some performance characteristics of this design have been studied. It has been implemented in a trial of pulsed electro‐magnetic field therapy with rheumatoid arthritis patients.     

A flexible procedure for formulating probability distributions on the unit interval with applications

Abstract

In this paper, we present a flexible mechanism for constructing probability distributions on a bounded intervals which is based on the composition of the baseline cumulative probability function and the quantile transformation from another cumulative probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in the (0, 1) intervals. The composite quantile family of probability distributions contains many models that have been proposed in the recent literature and new probability distributions are introduced on the unit interval. The proposed methodology is illustrated with two examples to analyze a poverty dataset in Peru from the Bayesian paradigm and Likelihood points of view.     

Step-up and step-down methods for testing multiple hypotheses in sequential experiments

Sequential methods are developed for testing multiple hypotheses, resulting in a statistical decision for each individual test and controlling the familywise error rate and the familywise power in the strong sense. Extending the ideas of step-up and step-down methods for multiple comparisons to sequential designs, the new techniques improve over the Bonferroni and closed testing methods proposed earlier by a substantial reduction of the expected sample size.