Consumer bankruptcy and default: The role of individual social capital

In this paper, we empirically assess the role of individual social capital on personal bankruptcy and default outcomes in the consumer credit market. After controlling for a borrower’s risk score, debt, income, wealth, and legal and economic environments, we find that default/bankruptcy risk rises and then falls over the lifecycle, while a borrower who owns a home or is married has a lower risk of default/bankruptcy. Moreover, a borrower who migrates 190 miles from his “state of birth” is 17% more likely to default and 15% more likely to file for bankruptcy, while a borrower who continues to live in his state of birth is 14% and 10% less likely to default and file for bankruptcy, respectively. A borrower who moves to a rural area is 9% and 7% less likely to default and declare bankruptcy, respectively. We also find that measures of social networks, norms, and cooperation and trust (i.e., aggregate social capital) are inversely related to consumer bankruptcy.     

Parameter estimation of state space models for univariate observations

This paper contributes to the problem of estimation of state space model parameters by proposing estimators for the mean, the autoregressive parameters and the noise variances which, contrarily to maximum likelihood, may be calculated without assuming any specific distribution for the errors. The estimators suggested widen the scope of the application of the generalized method of moments to some heteroscedastic models, as in the case of state-space models with varying coefficients, and give sufficient conditions for their consistency. The paper includes a simulation study comparing the proposed estimators with maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, these methods are applied to the calibration of the meteorological radar and estimation of area rainfall.     

Serials Clutter in Online Catalogs

Abstract

Finding and deciphering serials records in online catalogs is a challenge to many library users. To understand and analyze these challenges, the author conducted searches for scientific journal titles in the online catalogs of Committee on Institutional Cooperation (CIC) libraries. The first part of the study measures the difficulty of retrieving serial records from online catalogs comparing one-word versus multiple-word titles. The second part analyzes displays for complexity by measuring the length of the complete record and the length of the holdings statements. These data show the complexity of displays and indicate the potential confusion that these displays may induce in library users.     

Global imbalances and household savings: The role of wealth

Many claim that fluctuations in U.S. private savings help to create and to sustain global imbalances because of their influence on the current account deficit. To test this claim, this paper investigates the determinants of aggregate household savings using a panel of 18 developed countries for the period 1980–2005. We weave two strands of literature: the first strand from consumer theory, considering specifically the ‘wealth effect’, the second strand from aggregate private savings theory. The original contribution of this paper derives from the main explanatory variables of the household savings function: two measures of household wealth, the first a financial variable and the second a variable for tangible/housing stock. The salience of these variables has not been tested before. The model is then enriched with variables taken from the private savings literature. To find the best technique to estimate the long run savings function, unit root and cointegration tests are carried out, from which evidence of a cointegrating relationship is found. The group means FMOLS is used to estimate the model. The empirical evidence suggests effects consistent with theory: an increase in wealth negatively affects household savings. Furthermore, when important explanatory variables, such as government savings and population dependency ratios, are included in the model, tangible wealth becomes the only kind of wealth to (weakly and negatively) influence household savings in developed countries. In the U.S. however, wealth does not seem to affect household savings negatively, it seems instead that government savings and population changes better explain the decline of savings during the past two decades. This finding provides additional evidence on the issue of global imbalances, and suggests that the recent booms of the stock and the real estate markets should not be blamed for the decline in U.S. household and private savings.     

Nonparametric regression with cross‐classified responses

In this article, we develop regression models with cross‐classified responses. Conditional independence structures can be explored/exploited through the selective inclusion/exclusion of terms in a certain functional ANOVA decomposition, and the estimation is done nonparametrically via the penalized likelihood method. A cohort of computational and data analytical tools are presented, which include cross‐validation for smoothing parameter selection, Kullback–Leibler projection for model selection, and Bayesian confidence intervals for odds ratios. Random effects are introduced to model possible correlations such as those found in longitudinal and clustered data. Empirical performances of the methods are explored in simulation studies of limited scales, and a real data example is presented using some eyetracking data from linguistic studies. The techniques are implemented in a suite of R functions, whose usage is briefly described in the appendix. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 591–609; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

新世纪新成果--评《赛珍珠纪念文集》

<赛珍珠纪念文集>收录了2002年中国镇江赛珍珠学术研讨会的论文及文章,它的出版,标志着新世纪中国的赛珍珠研究正向纵深推进.该文集主要具有三方面的价值,即资料性、学术性和方法论意义.     

论21世纪大陆新武侠

"21世纪大陆新武侠"简称"大陆新武侠",这-概念于2004年正式提出.大陆新武侠具有鲜明的不同于港台新武侠的特点:一是大陆新武侠的"江湖"表现了后现代语境下的现代追求;二是女性武侠小说作为一个突出的现象改变了武侠小说性别政治的固有格局;三是强调学养与智慧的武侠智性写作,丰富和提升了武侠小说的类型界域与文体品位;四是大陆新武侠的广域叙事,从知识立场上拓展了武侠小说的文体类型.上述特点,共同形成了短短几年来大陆新武侠创作的繁荣,表现着大陆新武侠巨大的类型发展潜力.     

Optimal estimation of a finite population mean under generalized random permutation models

Employing certain generalized random permutation models and a general class of linear estimators of a finite population mean, it is shown that many of the conventional estimators are “optimal” in the sense of minimum average mean square error. Simple proofs are provided by using a well-known theorem on UMV estimation. The results also cover certain simple response error situations.     

一部精心整理的民国史专题资料集——《“中日七十一条”交涉史料全编（1915一1923）》评介

揭示黄纪莲<中日"二十一条"交涉史料全编( 1915- 1923)>的特色及价值在于:内容全面,充分反映中日"二十一条"交涉过程的全貌;取材广泛,利用价值高;编辑得当,使用方便.指出该书为近年来民国史专题资料集中不可多得的精品.