广东产业集群发展：现状评价与升级对策

以产业集群支撑和引领经济发展已经成为广东省经济发展的特色。本文简述了广东产业集群的发展过程,从产业集群支撑着广东经济的发展、形成了比较完整的产业链、培育了一批企业和区域品牌、以一批发展比较成熟的工业园区为载体和产业集群以中小民营企业为主等方面对广东产业集群发展现状进行了评价;分析了广东产业集群升级的思路和重点;从企业和政府两个层面提出了加快广东产业集群升级的对策。     

Modelling impact heterogeneity

Summary.  The treatments embodied in social interventions are characterized by their heterogeneity, delivered as they often are by different individuals operating in different social and geographical contexts. One implication of this heterogeneity is that average treatment effects will often be less useful than estimates of differential impacts across contexts. The paper shows how multilevel models can be used to estimate variability of impact and to account for systematic effects. These models are specified for multisite interventions, for studies using cluster allocation and for designs that incorporate matching. The paper indicates how qualitative and quantitative approaches to evaluation could be linked.     

DGM（1，1）模型的改进与高校毕业生的供求预测

一、序言高等教育人才总需求是指各部门、单位和厂商等对高等学校应届毕业生的总体需求。近年来我国大学毕业生就业问题凸现,引起了社会各方面的广泛关注,2005年大学毕业生的就业问题更为突出。事实上,社会对大学毕业生的需求所反映出的主要问题是高等教育办学规模和专业结构的     

Analyzing multivariate longitudinal binary data: A generalized estimating equations approach

The authors consider regression analysis for binary data collected repeatedly over time on members of numerous small clusters of individuals sharing a common random effect that induces dependence among them. They propose a mixed model that can accommodate both these structural and longitudinal dependencies. They estimate the parameters of the model consistently and efficiently using generalized estimating equations. They show through simulations that their approach yields significant gains in mean squared error when estimating the random effects variance and the longitudinal correlations, while providing estimates of the fixed effects that are just as precise as under a generalized penalized quasi‐likelihood approach. Their method is illustrated using smoking prevention data.     

储层含油气性定量评价中指标权重的确定方法

在综合评价事物特性过程中，权重的确定-直是-个重要难题，长期没有得到良好地解决。本文以川南碳酸盐岩储气层的选井选层研究为例．使用灰色关联分析法，在模糊综合评判中成功地确定了权重。这-成果使油气综合评价更加符合客观实际，也为模糊综合评判法广泛应用提供了良好途径。     

The Importance of Social Embeddedness: Churn Models at Mobile Providers

This article argues the importance of social embeddedness at mobile providers by examining the effects of customers’ network topological properties on churn probability—the probability of a customer switching from one telecommunication provider to another. This article uses data from regional snowball sampling—the only practically feasible network sampling method—to identify groups with significantly different churn ratios for customers with different network topological properties. Clear evidence indicates that individual network characteristics (node‐level metrics) have considerable impact on churn probabilities. The inclusion of network‐related measures in the churn model allows a longer‐term projection of churners and improves the predictive power of the model. With no possibility to carry out repeated sampling, sample stability was checked through simulation results. On the one hand, this article highlights the importance and effectiveness of the provider's tailored marketing campaigns by showing that customers targeted by direct marketing campaigns are less threatened by churn than nontargeted customers. On the other, this article shows that social embeddedness blocks the impact of the very same marketing efforts. This article forwards the idea that social embeddedness, also prevalent in vendor switching, can be extended to understanding the development of professional societies threatened by membership churn.     

中国人口转变地区差异的聚类分析

运用聚类分析方法 ,从总和生育率、平均预期寿命和自然增长率三方面综合了我国 1990年各地区的人口状况 ,将各地区按人口转变完成程度的异同进行了归类 ,并与按生育率转变完成程度的地区划分进行对比。结果显示 ,两种地区类型划分有较大的一致性     

On constructing ageing rural populations: ‘Capturing’ the grey nomad

The world’s population is ageing, with forecasts predicting this ageing is likely to be particularly severe in the rural areas of more developed countries. These forecasts are developed from nationally aggregated census and survey data and assume spatial homogeneity in ageing. They also draw on narrow understandings of older people and construct the potential impact of ageing (such as increased dependence on the health care system) as negative. The construction and reinforcement of such stereotypes have obscured public policy debate about ageing and also the rural. This paper considered how, through using a mixed method approach, narrow understandings of rural ageing could be extended and refined. Using a case study of grey nomads in rural Australia, the strengths and weaknesses of various research approaches were reviewed. The investigation concluded that both quantitative and qualitative data could be used to extend contemporary understandings of rural population ageing and move constructions of this phenomenon beyond an impending rural crisis.     

区域经济发展过程中产业的承接、聚集与扩散--基于对福建制鞋业发展的实证分析

发展中国家通过吸引外来投资,发展外向型经济,在推动当地经济发展的同时,却由于外资企业两头在外的经营体系,提高了国内企业进入产业的门槛,加大了产业扩散的难度.福建沿海制鞋业发展表明,承接产业转移,实现产业的扩散和本地化,需要面向国内市场,具有自主开拓市场能力的民营企业的广泛参与.