城市流动人口预测模型探讨

根据对流动人口变动系统的考察和分析,认为它是一个灰色系统。鉴于我国进行流动人口数据统计的年限较短,采用修正了的“等维灰数递补动态预测”模型,并依据成都市2000—2004年的流动人口数据,对这一预测模型进行验证和残差检验,结果显示其精度较高,说明灰色系统中的等维灰数递补动态模型是一种适用于我国城市流动人口变动预测的模型。     

Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods

Policy makers recognize the importance of identifying early young people who are likely to end up jobless on entry to the adult labour market. This paper uses sequence techniques to characterize 712 young peoples' transitions from school to work into `types', with jobless types interpreted as unsuccessful transitions. A logit model is estimated for transition type using a collection of static individual, family and school characteristics. This allows us to identify which young people are most likely to experience unsuccessful transitions into the adult labour market. Policy makers might use such information to target social and educational policy more effectively to promote social inclusion.     

北京文化创意产业集群发展问题研究

文章探讨了创意产业集群发展的理论基础和北京市创意产业集群发展问题,首先讨论了传统产业集群的机制问题,在此基础上对比分析了创意产业集群的特殊性,并对国际上发展创意产业集群的政策和理论进行分析,最后提出北京市发展创意产业集群需要解决的七个问题。     

中国人口老龄化的地区聚类及影响因素分析

本文用离差平方和法对我国31个省、市、自治区2011年、2010年和2000年的人口老龄化相关变量（如老少比、年均人口净增长率等五个变量）进行Q型系统聚类分析,并用2011年的各类经济、社会变量对老少比进行主成分回归。研究发现：各地区依老龄化特点可以分为四类;影响老龄化程度的主要因素有社会发达程度、居民生活水平和性别比;近年来部分发达地区人口快速增长且持续老龄化,而人口流出严重的欠发达地区老龄化程度加剧。     

Factors affecting stakeholder’s levels of satisfaction with community partnership association in Rayong Province,Thailand

ABSTRACT

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) studies have investigated the differences among five parameters: gender, age, education, income, and occupation; however, the findings are generally dissimilar. For instance, no comprehensive concordance has been reached on the performance and importance of the differences among those five parameters regarding stakeholder expectations and perceptions of CSR activities. Some voluminous investigations have revealed that the literature does not discuss the essential importance of the differences among the five parameters, and as a consequence, the magnitude of such differences is unexplained. This research analyses the quantitative and qualitative significances of the differences among the five parameters in stakeholder satisfaction level and perceptions of CSR activities conducted by the Community Partnership Association in Rayong Province, Thailand. Overall satisfaction levels positively correlated with education and age, indicating that intellectual background and personal experiences considerably influence the perceptions of CSR activities. This study assists policymakers and industrial sectors to launch the most practical strategies for plotting, scheming, implementing, and evaluating sustainability initiatives.     

Exploiting the Fifty Shades of Grey craze for the disability and sexual rights agenda

This paper does not present a literary critique of Fifty Shades of Grey, nor does it aim to take sides in the fierce disputes about the ‘rights’ and ‘wrongs’ of the storyline. Instead, it examines these debates with curiosity. It becomes apparent that the popular trilogy by E.L. James has encouraged more open discussions about sex and sexuality amongst groups who, until recently, have taken a backseat. The significance and usefulness of drawing on these debates is highlighted. For instance, a revived openness towards sexual issues could be an advantage for disabled people seeking support with creating spaces and opportunities for intimacy. At the same time, there is a risk that ‘kinkphobia’ could inform some adult protection interventions. This paper reflects on the opportunities that would arise if disabled people would seek to make the most of the possibilities arising from the Fifty Shades of Grey craze.     

软件产业虚拟集群企业间信任进化博弈研究

针对软件产业虚拟集群内软件企业合作过程中存在的合作态度不积极、机会主义行为严重、资源共享程度低等不信任问题,从软件企业的有限理性出发,运用进化博弈理论,引入合作收益、收益分配系数、风险成本以及背信成本等影响因素,构建软件产业虚拟集群企业间信任进化博弈模型,对进化路径及结果进行分析,运用Matlab进行数值模拟。研究表明,通过提高软件企业间合作收益,确定最优的收益分配系数及合理的背信成本,降低风险成本,能够提升软件产业虚拟集群企业间信任。     

基于空间距离法的区域人类发展指数

越来越多的学者和政策机构将人类发展指数（HDI）作为监控和分析国家区域政策的实施力度和效果。鉴于区域差距的相对性以及HDI本身存在的缺陷,将其用于区域内部人类发展差距的分析时必然有着不可避免的局限性。本文借鉴空间距离法的核心思想,对HDI进行方法上的改进,提出了区域人类发展指数（RHDI）。RHDI能够计算出一个区域与全国水平最小值之间和与目标值之间的客观差距,不但提高了HDI的技术质量,而且可以准确透视中国人类发展的区域不平衡和不协调问题。通过对HDI与RHDI的全面对比分析,对中国各个地区的人类发展状况及差距给出了一个更准确地刻画。     

Confidence Intervals for the Median of a Finite Population Based on the Sign Test

This article presents methods for constructing confidence intervals for the median of a finite population under simple random sampling without replacement, stratified random sampling, and cluster sampling. The confidence intervals, as well as point estimates and test statistics, are derived from sign estimating functions which are based on the well-known sign test. Therefore, a unified approach for inference about the median of a finite population is given.     

Multiple Spatio-Temporal Cluster Detection for Case Event Data: An Ordering-Based Approach

This article introduces a spatio-temporal distance which allows the extension of the spatial cluster detection methods of Demattei et al. (2007 Demattei , C. , Molinari , N. , Daures , J. P. ( 2007 ). Arbitrarily shaped multiple spatial cluster detection for case event data . Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 51 ( 8 ): 3931 – 3945 . [Google Scholar]) and Cucala (2009 Cucala , L. ( 2009 ). A flexible spatial scan test for case event data . Computat. Statist. Data Anal. 53 ( 8 ): 2843 – 2850 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A review of these methods is given before we define a spatio-temporal distance. Then this distance is used for detecting spatio-temporal clusters. These ordering-based methods are compared to the scan statistic by a simulation study. The scan procedure is more powerful but it detects fewer true positives due to its lack of flexibility. Those techniques are applied to a seismic data set. This article highlights two advantages of the ordering-based methods: their flexibility and their low computational demand.