Will the ASA's Efforts to Improve Statistical Practice be Successful? Some Evidence to the Contrary

ABSTRACT

Recent efforts by the American Statistical Association to improve statistical practice, especially in countering the misuse and abuse of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and p-values, are to be welcomed. But will they be successful? The present study offers compelling evidence that this will be an extraordinarily difficult task. Dramatic citation-count data on 25 articles and books severely critical of NHST's negative impact on good science, underlining that this issue was/is well known, did nothing to stem its usage over the period 1960–2007. On the contrary, employment of NHST increased during this time. To be successful in this endeavor, as well as restoring the relevance of the statistics profession to the scientific community in the 21st century, the ASA must be prepared to dispense detailed advice. This includes specifying those situations, if they can be identified, in which the p-value plays a clearly valuable role in data analysis and interpretation. The ASA might also consider a statement that recommends abandoning the use of p-values.     

Stress-strength reliability of exponentiated Fréchet distributions based on Type-II censored data

In this paper, we consider inference of the stress-strength parameter, R, based on two independent Type-II censored samples from exponentiated Fréchet populations with different index parameters. The maximum likelihood and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators, exact and asymptotic confidence intervals and hypotheses testing for R are obtained. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the performance of these estimators and confidence intervals. Finally, two real data sets are analysed for illustrative purposes.     

A new aging concept derived from the increasing convex ordering

In this paper, a comparison between the life distribution of a new unit with that of a used unit in the increasing convex order is made leading to a new class of life distributions which we call “new better than used in convex ordering of second order”. This class includes as subclasses the NBU and the NBUC and is a subclass of the NBUCA class. Preservation properties under convolution, random maxima, mixing and formation of coherent structures are established. Stochastic comparisons of the excess lifetime when the inter-arrival times belong to the NBUC(2) class are developed. Some applications of Poisson shock models and a test of exponentiality against NBUC(2) alternative are presented.     

A Factor-Adjusted Multiple Testing Procedure With Application to Mutual Fund Selection

In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in empirical finance. The factor-adjusted p-values were obtained after extracting the latent common factors by the principal component method. Under some mild conditions, the false discovery proportion can be consistently estimated even if the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be weakly correlated across units. Furthermore, by appropriately setting a sequence of threshold values approaching zero, the proposed FAT procedure enjoys model selection consistency. Extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis for selecting skilled funds in the U.S. financial market are presented to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

脉冲加热红外热成像无损检测技术回顾

脉冲红外热成像无损检测技术是上世纪末发展起来的一门新兴无损检测技术,该文从脉冲红外热成像无损检测的提出、理论模型的研究以及技术特点对该技术进行了回顾,并展望了其未来发展趋势.     

犯罪记忆心理的可测性与局限性

中国的心理测试技术,是运用现代心理学、犯罪心理学和实验心理学原理以及神经心理学、生物电子学等研究成果,通过专用测试仪器软硬件和智能化计算机系统,同时同步记录人的多项心理生物反映指标,进而评判心理痕迹对应相关程度的实验心理技术。心理测试中心近20年犯罪心理测试的研究成果、以及经过直接参与办理全国各地600多起重特大疑难案件的实践、和经过对近万人实案测试图谱的评判分析研究,得出的结论是:违法犯罪人在经历过违法犯罪事件之后的记忆违法犯罪心理痕迹是可测的。这项技术在辅助刑侦工作方面有着很大的作用,但同样,我们也要看到它的局限性。     

加强课程建设 推进素质教育——《电磁检测》课程教学的探索与实践

本文介绍了<电磁检测>教学课程组在加强课程建设、深化教学改革中所作的部分工作.在教学工作中大力探索理论与实践的教学方法,注重学员分析、解决工程问题的能力培养,鼓励创新思维,推进素质教育.     

西方政党政治中的利益集团、政党腐败及其治理

政党政治是西方民主政治的重要组成部分,是政治民主化的发展成果。政党的社会整合能力削弱,导致了西方政治过程中利益集团作为一支强大的力量强势崛起,并通过政治献金、游说向执政党施加压力,以期将集团的利益诉求通过执政党和政府的公共政策制定合法化。政党与利益集团的媾和促成了权力与利益的互换,政党腐败滋生,腐蚀和瓦解着当前政治体制,耗竭政党的社会基础与执政资源,威胁政党政治的生命。为此,只有完善政党与利益集团自身的组织规范,实现对政党权力的约束;改变单一的政党经费筹集方式,增强竞选经费使用的透明度;建立开放与多元竞争的公共政策制定机制,实现公共政策的利益均衡,构筑明确的权力与利益边界,才能重构政党与利益集团的关系,消减政党与利益集团的不正当交易,遏制腐败的发生。     

美国竞选财政制度初探

美国竞选财政制度是美国政治制度中争议最多的问题之一。由于利益集团政策参与的需求和竞选人竞选的需要 ,美国的竞选捐赠日益加剧 ,捐赠规模日趋膨胀 ,并在一定程度上导致了决策过程中利益代表性的偏差。由此 ,美国早期的法律就对利益集团的竞选捐赠进行限制 ,2 0世纪 4 0年代以来 ,美国关于竞选财政制度改革的立法不断。但改革遇到利益需求和关于合宪性问题等种种障碍 ,步履维艰。美国政治中的这一两难状况是其政治体制所使然 ,有关竞选财政制度改革的争论仍将继续下去。     

重庆土家族婚俗现状研究

重庆土家族婚俗文化,是巴渝文化的活化石。文章通过田野调查与相关文献研究,探讨土家族婚俗特色及其文化价值,试图为土家族婚俗(这一非物质文化遗产的保护工作)提供一些理性的思考。