低生育率水平下人口发展的经济后果分析

本文分析了低生育率水平下人口发展对未来我国经济发展的积极影响 ,同时指出它是一把双刃剑 ,同样也有不利于经济发展的后果。为了既充分发挥低生育水平的积极作用 ,又逐步消除或缓解其不良后果 ,一方面要适时地调整现行生育政策 ,选择适当的总和生育率水平 ,另一方面要构建相应的政策支持体系予以支撑。     

Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography: a Case Study

Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability afforded these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because, among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conflict that exists when resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these fugitive methods serve to keep the potential for conflict high because of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they are adopted.     

内生性人口负增长经济影响的国际比较北大核心CSSCI

由长期低生育率和老龄化导致的内生性人口负增长是未来人口发展的新趋势。这种崭新的人口现象改变了人口研究的宏观环境,也引发了人们对未来经济能否实现持续发展的普遍担忧。本文使用联合国2019年世界人口展望数据和世界银行数据,筛选出德国、俄罗斯、匈牙利、波黑、立陶宛、日本作为典型的人口负增长国家,以人口缩减比例作为人口负增长风险的度量指标,以各国持续时间最久的一次负增长时域作为考察范围,从国别队列视角和生命周期思想出发,利用同原点比较模型系统考察典型国家在人口负增长之后的经济增长、劳动参与率变化、固定资产变化和技术进步情况,探索人口负增长风险积累程度对社会经济的影响。结果发现:各典型国家的人口负增长无论持续时间长短、速度快慢,其经济在最长负增长时域内均尚未出现明显的衰退;人口负增长对劳动参与率的影响并不明显,各国劳动参与率整体上在稳定范围内波动;人口负增长对固定资本形成占GDP比重和技术进步的影响方向各异,尚未显示出统一规律。人口负增长对宏观经济指标的影响是多种效应的合力,不是单向度的,充满了不确定性和异质性。尽管国际经验如此,未来中国将在“未富先负”的背景下迎来“快负快老”,仍需要未雨绸缪,谨慎应对。     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models

Summary This paper solves some D-optimal design problems for certain Generalized Linear Models where the mean depends on two parameters and two explanatory variables. In all of the cases considered the support point of the optimal designs are found to be independent of the unknown parameters. While in some cases the optimal design measures are given by two points with equal weights, in others the support is given by three point with weights depending on the unknown parameters, hence the designs are locally optimal in general. Empirical results on the efficiency of the locally optimal designs are also given. Some of the designs found can also be used for planning D-optimal experiments for the normal linear model, where the mean must be positive. This research was carried out in part at University College, London as an M.Sc. project. Thanks are due to Prof. I. Ford (University of Glasgow) and Prof. A. Giovagnoli (University of Perugia) for their valuable suggestions and critical observations.     

Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

中国经济增长模式转型：供给结构视角分析

本文从供给结构角度分析了自1978年以来中国经济增长模式转型的特征,并针对存在的问题提出了相应的解决对策,旨在寻求经济增长模式转型的有效路径。     

The coefficient of determination and its adjusted version in linear regression models

This article presents a comparative study of the efficiency properties of the coefficient of determination and its adjusted version in linear regression models when disturbances are not necessarily normal.     

Some subjective bayesian considerations in the selection of models

Some considerations relating to the post-data selection of models are discussed. These include some difficulties with orthodox theory, implementation of the likelihood principle, and Bayesian tests of hypotheses.     

A monte carlo comparison of tests based on the durbin-watson statistic with other autocorrelation tests in dynamic models

This paper examines the sampling properties of a number of serial correlation tests in dynamic linear models which include one or two lags of the dependent variable. Among the tests considered are the Durbin-Watson (DW) bounds test, modified versions of the DW proposed recently by King and Wu and Inder, Durbin's m test, Inder's point optimal test and a Hausman type test. Sampling designs include models with one or two lags of the dependent variable. The m, Hausman, and Inder's tests have the best performance, while Inder's modified DW test appears to be better than the other DW based tests. Results also suggest that tests are less powerful and more sensitive to design parameters in models with higher dynamics, with the DW-based tests being the most sensitive.