DISTRIBUTIONAL INCENTIVES IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF DOMESTIC SOVEREIGN DEFAULT

Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk‐averse debt and nondebtholders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as the concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset.     

THE DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE AGREEMENTS

This paper analyzes a framework in which countries over time pollute and invest in green technologies. Without a climate treaty, the countries pollute too much and invest too little, particularly if intellectual property rights are weak. Nevertheless, short‐term agreements on emission levels then reduce every country's payoff, since countries invest less when they anticipate future negotiations. If intellectual property rights are weak, the agreement should be tougher and more long‐term. Conversely, if the climate agreement happens to be short‐term or absent, intellectual property rights should be strengthened or technological licensing subsidized.     

托尼的中国研究及对费孝通乡村研究的影响

托尼的社会学研究在国内学术界被低估甚至被忽视了,他对中国的研究是经得起时间的考验的,也影响了当时中国学者的研究,典型的是费孝通的乡村研究,很大程度上是受到托尼的直接或间接影响。而托尼与费孝通共同的研究传统就是历史视角、整体视角,在此基础上研究中国农村,无论是从一般学术意义上,还是具体的中国当前农村问题的研究上,都具有很大的指导意义和参考价值,继承和发扬这一研究传统,是文化自觉和理论自觉的重要途径。     

从“精卫填海”与“黄帝擒蚩尤”看上古部落的冲突与融合

"精卫填海"神话反映了炎帝神农氏与东夷蚩尤氏冲突的历史,炎帝携女娃东巡蚩尤族领地导致了女娃被害的惨剧,炎帝借用鸟图腾和人死化生的观念,虚构了精卫鸟衔西山之木石以复仇东海的故事。女娃被害促进了炎黄部落的联合,引发"黄帝擒蚩尤"的战争,而决定炎黄部落与蚩尤部落战争的胜败,乃在于南方苗蛮集团中的一支——处于良渚文化圈的女魃部落加入战斗,但战争并没有给女魃部落带来利益,导致了其不能回故土又被迫北迁的结局,这也解释了良渚文化突然由盛转衰的原因。     

Rethinking industrial citizenship: the role and meaning of work in an age of austerity

T. H. Marshall in his famous tract Citizenship and Social Class wrote briefly about what he called ‘industrial citizenship’, a type of belonging rooted in the workplace. Here Marshall's ideas are developed alongside a consideration of Durkheim's Professional Ethics and Civic Morals together with research material from the Guinness Company. It shows the way the Company actively sought to create ‘Guinness citizenship’ within its London brewery. The article draws out the ways in which the significance and potential of work based citizenship for ameliorating the ills of industrial society are clearly articulated in mid‐twentieth century Britain and echo earlier neglected Durkheimian sociological ideas on work. These ideas have real potential to inform contemporary academic and policy debates about the nature of capitalism and the form and content of work now and in the future.     

Does Formal Education for Older Workers Increase Earnings? — Evidence Based on Rich Data and Long‐term Follow‐up

Governments in Europe, Canada and the USA have expressed an ambition to stimulate education of older. In this paper, we analyse if there are effects on annual earnings of formal education for participants aged 42–55 at the time of enrolment in 1994–95. The analysis explores longitudinal population register data stretching from 1982 to 2007. The method used is difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching based on a rich set of covariates, including indicators of health and labor market marginalization. Our findings underline the importance of long follow up periods and imply positive effects for women, especially so for women with children, and no significant average earnings effects for men. These results differ from earlier studies but are stable to several alternative assumptions regarding unobservable characteristics. Data further indicate that the gender gap in our estimates may stem from differences in underlying reasons for enrolment.     

一类半线性椭圆型方程的整体解

本文研究一类二阶半线性椭圆型方程正的整体解，所得的结果优于文[1]、[2]。     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

Policy responses to external shocks in sub-Saharan African countries

The author analyzes the experience of sub-Saharan African countries with external shocks in the form of the deterioration of the terms of trade and the world recession between 1973 and 1978, with distinction made between low-income and middle-income countries. Adjustment to external shocks in low-income sub-Saharan African countries took largely the form of reductions in imports through lower rates of economic growth and lower income elasticity of import demand while these countries lost export market shares. Losses in export market shares were smaller in the middle-income countries and in the entire group, export performance was positively correlated with the rate of economic growth.     

生命力的赞歌——论劳伦斯变异的人文主义在《查泰莱夫人的情人》中的表现

D.H.劳伦斯希望通过恢复男女两性关系的自然性来拯救危机四伏的西方社会,在他的作品里充满了对生命力的赞美。他这一思想与西方传统的“人文主义”思想很相似,却并非完全相同,这一思想可称为变异的“人文主义”思想,他的这种思想集中表现在《查泰莱夫人的情人》中。