Do Forbearance Plans Help Mitigate Credit Card Losses?

In this paper, we examine how reinstated (i.e., re-aged) credit card accounts are likely to default again. Our sample data reveal that about 22% of the re-aged accounts default again, mostly in the first 24 months after reinstatement. We also find that a FICO score (public information) is a better predictor of a second default, while a payment behavioral score (private information) is a better predictor of a first default. Furthermore, the average FICO score of the 78% of the re-aged borrowers who did not default again rises about 20 points, an improvement in their relative risk profile overall. These findings suggest that the re-aging program provides a second chance for liquidity-constrained borrowers who would have otherwise defaulted on their debt.

加权折扣单机排序干扰管理模型和算法研究

为解决机器排序中由于干扰事件的发生使初始最优加工时间表无法按计划执行的问题,构建同时考虑原目标和扰动目标的双目标干扰管理模型,对初始最优加工时间表进行调整并对未完工工件进行重排序;在双目标干扰管理模型中,原目标由所有工件的加权折扣完工时间和来度量,扰动目标由重排序后工件完工时间的变化来度量;结合量子比特在表示解的多样性方面的优点和非支配排序遗传算法在处理多目标排序问题上的优点,设计一种量子遗传算法和非支配排序遗传算法相结合的启发式进化算法对构建的模型进行求解。在数值算例中,通过比较若干项针对有效解集的性能指标发现,该混合算法求得的有效解集在多样性和与最优有效前沿的邻近性等方面优于目前得到广泛应用的非支配排序遗传算法,验证了构建的模型和算法对于求解机器排序干扰管理问题的有效性。     

Ordering Properties of Convolutions from Heterogeneous Populations: A Review on Some Recent Developments

In this article, we review some recent results on the stochastic comparison of convolutions from independent and heterogeneous random variables. We highlight the close connections that exist between some classical stochastic orders and majorization-type orders.     

An Empirical Investigation of the “Dynamic McFadden” Model of Purchase Timing and Brand Choice: Implications for Market Structure

Purchase timing and brand-choice decisions of households are jointly investigated using the “dynamic McFadden” model of Heckman and Singer. The hazard of brand purchase is decomposed into the category purchase hazard and the probability of brand choice conditional on category purchase. The former is modeled using the hazard-function approach and the latter using a logit model. Unobserved heterogeneity in brand preferences, marketing effects, and baseline hazard parameters is accounted for in the empirical analysis. The distribution of preference heterogeneity identifies the locations of brands in multiattribute perceptual space and the distribution of attribute importance weights across households.     

A new class of probability distributions via cosine and sine functions with applications

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we introduce a new class of (probability) distributions, based on a cosine-sine transformation, obtained by compounding a baseline distribution with cosine and sine functions. Some of its properties are explored. A special focus is given to a particular cosine-sine transformation using the exponential distribution as baseline. Estimations of parameters of a particular cosine-sine exponential distribution are performed via the maximum likelihood estimation method. A simulation study investigates the performances of these estimates. Applications are given for four real data sets, showing a better fit in comparison to some existing distributions based on some goodness-of-fit tests.     

Stochastic Orderings of Order Statistics of Independent Random Variables with Different Scale Parameters

This is an article on recent results on stochastic comparisons of order statistics of n independent random variables differing in their scale parameters. Most of the results obtained so far are for the Weibull and the Gamma distributions.     

A Mixture Model of Proportional Reversed Hazard Rate

This article investigates properties of mixture model of proportional reversed hazard rate. Firstly, the mixing random variable and the overall population variable are proved to be positively likelihood dependent. Secondly, lower bounds for the distribution function as well as the conditional distribution are established in the case that the mixing variable belongs to certain nonparametric classes. Finally, some stochastic orders on the mixing (baseline) variables are proved to be translated to the corresponding overall population variables.     

On a Selection Weibull Distribution

In this article, a selection Weibull distribution is investigated. First, some properties and representations of the model with some plots of the density and hazard rate functions are illustrated. Second, some simple relations of this model with some distributions discussed. In addition, maximum likelihood estimators obtained with numerical methods, and compared by three sub-models with a data set that shows the performance of our model. Finally, a simulation study presented for all parameters.     

On the Mixture Proportional Mean Residual Life Model

In this article, we propose a new mixture model induced by the model of proportional mean residual life. Under some appropriate assumptions, it is shown that the mixing and overall variables in the model admit the positive likelihood ratio dependence structure. To see how the overall variable is affected by the stochastic variation of the mixing variable, we study some stochastic comparisons using these variables. Finally, some useful bounds for tail probability of the overall variable for large values of the mixing variable are derived.