基于2007年投入产出表的我国投资乘数测算和变动分析

 本文对固定资产投资乘数、凯恩斯投资乘数和投入产出投资乘数等三种投资乘数进行了测算分析,结果表明近年来我国投资乘数并没有发生大幅度下降,对经济增长的拉动贡献较大。通过对4万亿投资计划的具体测算,表明投资对拉动内需和抵御外部冲击发挥了巨大作用。作为发展中国家,保持较高的投资增速是经济可持续发展的必要条件,未来投资仍将是拉动我国经济增长的主要动力。但应当积极调整投资结构,避免产能过剩、抑制房地产价格上涨,提高投资效率。     

A two phases queueing system with Bernoulli vacation schedule under multiple vacation policy

This paper deals with a single server Poisson arrival queue with two phases of heterogeneous service along with a Bernoulli schedule vacation model, where after two successive phases service the server either goes for a vacation with probability p (0≤p≤1) or may continue to serve the next unit, if any, with probability q(=1−p). Further the concept of multiple vacation policy is also introduced here. We obtained the queue size distributions at a departure epoch and at a random epoch, Laplace Stieltjes Transform of the waiting time distribution and busy period distribution along with some mean performance measures. Finally we discuss some statistical inference related issues.     

对RC4算法的错误引入攻击研究

错误引入攻击假设攻击者可以向密码设备(智能卡)引入错误,使其出现错误的加密结果。攻击者同时利用正确的和错误的加密结果来发现隐藏在密码设备中的秘密信息(密钥)。该文给出了一种对RC4算法的错误引入攻击方法。模拟实验表明,一轮攻击有可能找出RC4初始状态中3个位置的值,连续使用该算法能以较高(大于1/2)的概率恢复RC4的整个初始状态。恢复整个初始状态所需的密钥字个数约为O(216),引入的错误数量约为O(216)。     

交际性语言测试理论与新CET-4写作测试

交际性语言测试以测试交际能力为宗旨。具体到写作命题，它侧重命题本身的交际性。大学英语四级（CET-4）对促进大学英语教学功不可没，但其写作部分在命题、任务类型、评分标准等方面受到众多质疑。新CET-4交际性写作命题必将对写作教学产生积极的反拨作用。     

青年毛泽东与五四时期湖南女子解放

五四时期,青年毛泽东为湖南女子解放鼓与呼.同时,他对这一问题的认识也是较全面而深刻的.     

五四:世界化及其理由

五四新文化运动选择了世界化的文化建设路径。在现代化这一目标制约下,世界化就是西化,西化就是现代化。虽然"全盘西化"作为一个汉语词汇是后来才出现的,但五四时期已经存在这种倾向。《新青年》集团批判"特殊国情论",反对"调和折衷论",目的都在于推进中国的充分世界化。他们之所以主张充分世界化,主要理由是西方文明比中国文明进步,而进步的标准则是更有利于人的生存和发展,更能够保障人的自由、尊严和权利。     

Droit du travail,chômage et part salariale: l'expérience de six pays de l'OCDE, 1970–2010

Utilisant des données sur le droit du travail dans six pays (Allemagne, Etats‐Unis, France, Japon, Royaume‐Uni et Suède) entre 1970 et 2010, les auteurs évaluent les effets de la réglementation du travail sur le chômage et la part du travail dans le revenu national. Leur méthode montre la différence entre les effets à court et à long terme des changements de réglementation: la législation protectrice des travailleurs n'est pas associée de façon systématique avec le chômage, mais est corrélée positivement avec la part du travail dans le revenu national. Les dispositions relatives au temps de travail et la représentation des salariés ont des effets bénéfiques tant sur l'efficacité que sur la répartition.     

Using a Box–Cox transformation in the analysis of longitudinal data with incomplete responses

We analyse longitudinal data on CD4 cell counts from patients who participated in clinical trials that compared two therapeutic treatments: zidovudine and didanosine. The investigators were interested in modelling the CD4 cell count as a function of treatment, age at base-line and disease stage at base-line. Serious concerns can be raised about the normality assumption of CD4 cell counts that is implicit in many methods and therefore an analysis may have to start with a transformation. Instead of assuming that we know the transformation (e.g. logarithmic) that makes the outcome normal and linearly related to the covariates, we estimate the transformation, by using maximum likelihood, within the Box–Cox family. There has been considerable work on the Box–Cox transformation for univariate regression models. Here, we discuss the Box–Cox transformation for longitudinal regression models when the outcome can be missing over time, and we also implement a maximization method for the likelihood, assumming that the missing data are missing at random.     

HOW DO ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AFFECT FISCAL POLICY? EVIDENCE FROM CANTONAL PARLIAMENTS, 1890–2000

Using a new data set on Swiss cantons since 1890, we analyze how the adoption of proportional representation affects fiscal policy. In line with economic theory, we show that proportional systems shift spending toward broad goods (like education and welfare benefits) but decrease spending on geographically targetable goods (like roads). We find little evidence that proportional representation increases the overall size of government. An analysis of the underlying theoretical mechanisms reveals that proportional representation increases electoral turnout, left‐wing representation, and political fragmentation. These changes in political representation explain a substantial share of the rise in education spending, but a small share of the rise in welfare spending or the decline in road expenditures.     

The empirical analysis of the -bilateral optimized combinatorial auction model

This study proposes a new and highly efficient dynamic combinatorial auction mechanism—the N-bilateral optimized combinatorial auction (N-BOCA). N-BOCA is a flexible iterative combinatorial auction model that offers more optimized trading for multiple suppliers and purchasers in the supply chain than one-sided combinatorial auction. We design the N-BOCA model from the perspectives of market architecture, trading rules, and decision strategy for winner determination, the decision strategy for winner determination needs flexible optimization modeling capability. Thus rule-based reasoning was applied for reflecting the flexible decision strategies. We also show the viability of N-BOCA through Paired Samples T-test experimentation. It shows that N-BOCA yields higher purchase efficiency and effectiveness than the one-auctioneer to multi-bidders (1-to-N) combinatorial auction mechanism.