有关区域经济政策的一些思考

如何引导地方政府的经济增长冲动 ,对一些地区经济发展而言是至关重要的问题。分析发展中国家或欠发达地区经济问题时 ,因人口增长速度、区域经济发展水平、区域空间状况、区域经济环境、区域政策目标等方面的差异 ,不能把发达国家或发达地区所采取过的某些政策作为发展中国家或地区的区域经济政策。根据比较流行的区域经济分析理论 ,可以从基础设施、工业化政策、人力资本投资、城镇体系与增长极、农业发展措施、激励措施、分权化与地方财政等方面 ,分析欠发达地区区域经济政策的主要内容以及调控手段。区域经济政策目标就是要改进当地福利水平 ,消除要素流动障碍 ,塑造区域发展的长期动力。     

云南劳动力产业结构的变化分析

按照配第—克拉克定理 ,产业结构和劳动力产业结构从第一产业向第二产业、第三产业顺序变动 ,本文认为 ,云南劳动力产业结构是一种非常规变化 ,并对此进行了分析     

基于投入产出分析的产业结构高级化

投入产出分析是研究经济系统各要素相互联系的数量经济分析方法。产业结构高级化是指国民经济各部门重心转移的过程。无论是投入产出分析,还是产业结构高级化问题,迄今均有大量的研究和成果。但对两者之间关系特别是空间的关联性,似尚缺乏足够的关注。结合目前投入产出的发展和中国产业结构高级化的现状,从投入产出角度来分析中国的产业结构高级化的进程,以及中国三次产业的变化情况,并为国家规划产业结构的发展和国家制定产业政策提供新的启示和借鉴。     

Forecasting composite indicators with anticipated information: an application to the industrial production index

Summary. Many economic and social phenomena are measured by composite indicators computed as weighted averages of a set of elementary time series. Often data are collected by means of large sample surveys, and processing takes a long time, whereas the values of some elementary component series may be available a considerable time before the others and may be used for forecasting the composite index. This problem is addressed within the framework of prediction theory for stochastic processes. A method is proposed for exploiting anticipated information to minimize the mean-square forecast error, and for selecting the most useful elementary series. An application to the Italian general industrial production index is illustrated, which demonstrates that knowledge of anticipated values of some, or even just one, component series may reduce the forecast error considerably.     

Finite time ruin probability and structural density properties in the presence of dependence in insurance risk model

In the present paper, we consider the classical compound Poisson risk model with dependence between claim sizes and claim inter-arrival time. We attempt to analyze the approximation of finite time ruin probability. The finite time ruin probabilities are plotted for fixed threshold value associated to the claim inter-arrival time and also for fixed dependence parameter in Nelsen (2006) copula separately. Additionally, a general form for joint density of the interclaim times and claim sizes is considered. With respect to the classical Gerber-Shiu's (1998) function, first some structural density properties of dependent collective risk model is obtained. Then the ladder height probability density function of claim sizes is computed and the dependency structure investigated for Erlang interclaim time. As the application, some dependent models of the interclaim times and claim sizes are studied.     

小额诉讼程序中裁判文书的简化

简化裁判文书体例和说理是提升诉讼效率、适应小额诉讼程序改革的基本要求。当前,通用的裁判文书格式固化、式样单一、内容繁杂冗长,已无法适应广大人民群众对高效司法的需要,难以与小额诉讼程序完全匹配,束缚了小额诉讼程序改革。简化裁判文书、提高诉讼效率,需要从增强法官的专业能力出发,以信息化建设为依托,在加强说理和法治宣传的同时,对裁判文书的体例结构进行适当简化,创新裁判文书的式样,拓展无裁判文书适用的案件范围,完善当事人司法监督和权利救济渠道,做到程序规范、格式简化、说理透彻、处理得当,从而更好地服务于小额诉讼程序改革,体现法治精神和社会价值。     

What can we learn from the history of technology?

This article focuses on exploring what technology scholars and students of management of technology stand to benefit most by foraging through the history of technology. In order to show how historical sensitivity could sharpen scholarship, three strategies for complicating the simple are drawn from the historian's toolkit. Implications for research in technology and innovation management are discussed.     

产业结构、空间结构与城镇化效率

我国城镇化发展已由以城镇化率增长为主的传统城镇化迈入以质量提升为主的新型城镇化,而城镇化效率是反映城镇化质量的综合指标。本文从产业和空间两个维度构建了我国城镇化效率提升的理论分析框架,并利用动态空间面板模型实证检验了产业结构和空间结构对城镇化效率的作用机制与影响效应。研究发现,与产业间结构的服务化调整相比,产业内各行业生产率增长才是城镇化效率提升的主要来源,并在考虑了一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立;在省域空间范围内,多中心的城市空间结构更有利于城镇化效率改善,但这一影响效应伴随着城镇化率提高和城市规模扩大而变弱。本文蕴含的重要政策启示是,当前我国应将城镇化效率纳入新型城镇化建设的考量目标,并以生产率增长作为产业结构调整的主导方向,尤其是在城镇化程度和城市规模均不高的情况下,慎重采用服务业对工业的“腾龙换鸟”或“退二进三”的城镇化发展战略。     

西部产业集群的若干问题研究

国内外理论研究与发展实践表明,产业集群已成为区域竞争优势的源泉。目前,我国西部地区尚未形成真正意义上的、有竞争力的产业集群。加快市场化改革步伐、推进国有大型企业组织结构调整、着力培植特色产业群、发挥政府在产业集群形成中的引导作用等,是推进西部产业集群形成与发展的主要对策措施。     

Workers' compensation in stress-related claims: Some thoughts for employers in the UK

Abstract

This article looks at the extent to which the Workmen's Compensation Laws in the USA and Canada accommodate stress-related claims. It questions the extent to which a similar pattern may follow in the UK and the potential implications for employers.