大学英语视听说教学改革与实践研究——“输入假设”和“情感过滤假设”理论在教学中的应用

目前我国大学英语视听说教学整体不容乐观,学生的听说能力偏低.大学生中存在着"会考不会用,会认不会写,会读不会说"的问题,"聋子英语"、"哑巴英语"已经成为大学生中存在的普遍现象,听说成为许多学生学习英语的一大难题.将克拉申的"输入假设"和"情感过滤假设"理论应用于大学英语视听说教学中,培养学生自主学习的能力,采取各种有效措施,加大语言输入量,降低情感过滤作用,可以提高大学生的听说水平.     

Type I error rate control in adaptive designs for confirmatory clinical trials with treatment selection at interim

Interest in confirmatory adaptive combined phase II/III studies with treatment selection has increased in the past few years. These studies start comparing several treatments with a control. One (or more) treatment(s) is then selected after the first stage based on the available information at an interim analysis, including interim data from the ongoing trial, external information and expert knowledge. Recruitment continues, but now only for the selected treatment(s) and the control, possibly in combination with a sample size reassessment. The final analysis of the selected treatment(s) includes the patients from both stages and is performed such that the overall Type I error rate is strictly controlled, thus providing confirmatory evidence of efficacy at the final analysis. In this paper we describe two approaches to control the Type I error rate in adaptive designs with sample size reassessment and/or treatment selection. The first method adjusts the critical value using a simulation-based approach, which incorporates the number of patients at an interim analysis, the true response rates, the treatment selection rule, etc. We discuss the underlying assumptions of simulation-based procedures and give several examples where the Type I error rate is not controlled if some of the assumptions are violated. The second method is an adaptive Bonferroni-Holm test procedure based on conditional error rates of the individual treatment-control comparisons. We show that this procedure controls the Type I error rate, even if a deviation from a pre-planned adaptation rule or the time point of such a decision is necessary.     

中国省区间人口投入产出表编制方法创新及实证研究

基于区域间投入产出表的空间静态特征和人口投入产出表的跨期动态特征,本文研究了省区间人口投入产出表的编制,研究的主要内容从编制思路创新、数据估计方法创新及实证检验分析等方面展开。研究结论认为：人口流动跨期特征和空间静态分布特征的结合合理解决了省区间人口投入产出表的编制思路;分类估计省区间人口投入产出表中间流量和非中间流量数据,有效解决了省区间人口投入产出表数据的估计;实证检验及经验数据检验结果验证了本文所编制中国省区间人口投入产出表是可行的,GM-RAS方法估计的省区间人口投入产出表数据是可靠的;实证应用分析发现中国人口迁移特征符合“胡焕庸线”理论,且表现出“胡焕庸线”向东南移动的特征。     

Impact of microcredit on rural household welfare and economic growth in Vietnam

Since its birth in 1970s, microcredit has been growing rapidly with the aim to reduce poverty and to promote economic growth. Using the large panel data of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Surveys, the objectives are twofold: (i) to evaluate the micro-impact of microcredit on rural household economy, particularly on output value and net income of rural households, using Matched Difference-in-Difference method; and (ii) to evaluate its macro-impact on economic growth, especially the aggregate effect of production increase and income growth, using Input–Output analysis. The results at micro level find that microcredit benefits self-employment rather than other economic activities of households. The salient results from the macro-economic analysis reveal that, not as expected, the effect of microcredit on output increase is not so large. The findings suggest that microcredit is an effective development strategy at both micro and macro levels, thus the Vietnamese government should enact the relevant policies to enhance the effectiveness and outreach of microcredit.     

基于OECD数据的农业服务投入比较研究

运用OECD的农业生产投入数据,从绝对量、比重、结构方面比较了农业生产水平不同的国家农业服务投入的分布趋势和变动规律,建立多元回归模型分析农业生产水平、服务业发展水平、政府农业投入水平对农业服务投入的影响,并简要分析了中国农业服务发展滞后的原因。     

第二语言学习策略的应用性探析——以语言的输入、互动和输出为例

本文拟从理论的角度,围绕Chomskey,Krushan,Gass,和Swain等学者的观点,结合笔者的学习体会,对这三个方面逐一作了分析和讨论。     

克拉申的输入假设与斯温纳的输出假设的比较研究

Krashen语言输入假说和Swain的语言输出假说分别提出于1980s初、后期。Krashen认为,语言输入是语言习得的首要条件。Swain认为语言输出在语言习得中有显著作用。语言输入假设是建立在儿童第一语言习得研究之上。语言输出假设是建立在“沉浸式教学”践和认知理论之上。语言输入和语言输出是语言学习的两个终端行为,在语言习得中都起重要的作用。     

网络语料库驱动下英语写作实证研究

英语写作是教学的薄弱环节,而网络语料库的兴起影响着教学方法和手段。以输入输出假设理论为基础,在WWB和SPSS软件的辅助下结合英语写作的实际,对网络语料库驱动下英语写作进行实证研究。结果表明合理使用网络语料库能够提高写作用词的准确性,增强文章的连贯性,丰富文章内容和修辞,从而提高英语写作水平和能力。     

无地农民与土地调整、土地流转及土地继承的关系——基于广东、湖南两省9个村的调查

基于广东、湖南两省9个村的入户调查,研究农村土地承包权长期化背景下的无地农民与土地调整、土地流转之间的关系。通过回归分析,发现在落实了土地承包权长期化的村中,离土地进行最后调整时间越远,无地农民数量和有无地人口的农户数量越多,农民的土地调整意愿下降,农民越不愿意动地。无地农民的存在不是农户转入和转出土地的主要影响因素,在无地情况下,无地农民并非通过土地流转市场租入土地获得土地使用权,而是外出打工。另外,无地农民通过家庭内部继承获得承包权已经成为农村社会普遍现象。论证了无地农民群体的存在对当下农村社会而言,未构成严峻的问题;也说明土地之所以不再重新调整,是因为土地调整预期收益低而组织成本高,从而30年不变的政策从一种外部强制性制度安排成为一种内生制度安排并延续下来。     

全面小康阶段的再分配规模——基于中美日三国相近发展阶段比较基础上的思考

首先根据人均GDP购买力平价标准,对美日两国与我国全面小康相近的历史发展阶段进行界定。然后在此基础上,采用SNA统一口径,对美日两国相近阶段政府再分配规模数据进行了调整计算,并将其演变趋势和阶段特征同我国进行了比较。比较结果显示,当前我国再分配规模与我国经济发展水平基本相适应。