Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

中美房贷险风险保障机制的比较研究

针对当前房贷险颓势引致运行不畅现象,应用比较分析方法,借鉴美国房贷险风险保障机制的先进经验,并结合我国的国情,找出并剖析影响房贷险正常运行的诸多因素,提出建立有效房贷险风险保障机制的解决方案与政策建议。     

现行生育保险制度亟待解决的问题及改进对策

目前我国的生育保险制度存在发展不平衡,覆盖面不广,基金筹集渠道窄,待遇标准不统一,管理手段落后等问题,对此,建议采取加大宣传力度,强化生育保险意识,实行社会统筹制度,加快法制建设等有效措施,完善我国的生育保险制度。     

《社会保险基金管理》理论实训一体化教学改革研究

社会保险基金管理已成为劳动与社会保障专业的核心课程之一,也是一门理论性和实践性很强的课程.文章主要针对社会保险基金管理教学方面存在的重理论、轻实践,忽视专业能力培养的问题,进行了社会保险基金管理理论实训一体化的教学改革探索.     

From Hospital to Home with NDIS Funded Support: Examining Participant Pathway Timeframes Against Discharge Expectations

ABSTRACT

For patients with disability who require funded supports to leave hospital, the introduction of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) represents opportunity and challenges. At a time of major reform, timely and supported discharge is reliant on overcoming interface complexities. The purpose of this study was to examine the NDIS participant pathway timeframes against discharge expectations for hospitalised adults with spinal cord injury (SCI) or acquired brain injury (ABI) and interrogate delays for the two groups. Administrative data on 54 participants (ABI?=?18 and SCI?=?36) were analysed. Both groups experienced delays to discharge and significant variability in timeframes between NDIS pathway processes and extent of delays. Group differences were identified regarding inefficiencies across the continuum, with type of support a factor to investigate further. This study has uncovered critical points in the NDIS pathway that could impact discharge of participants and where collaboration and adaptive strategies could be targeted to improve processes.

IMPLICATIONS

• Ensuring the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) pathway operates effectively in the hospital setting is critical to the timely discharge of people with complex needs who require funded supports.

• Monitoring implementation of the NDIS in the health setting is important to avert interface problems that impede timely discharge and access.

     

长期外出流动人口的养老境遇:基于停留预期与社保参与状况的分析

流动人口的社会保障问题一直以来备受社会各界的广泛关注。本文运用国家人口计生委2010年实施的106个城市流动人口监测调查数据,对停留在流入城市达10年及以上的流动人口这一最先迈入老龄阶段的群体,就其人口社会特征和停留预期与养老境遇进行重点分析。总体而言,长期外出流动人口显示有长期停留之预期,但社会保险的参与状况却令人堪忧。此外,不同人口社会特征的长期外出流动人口,其长期停留预期和社保参与状况存在一定差别。     

Home birth and the National Australian Maternity Services Review: too hot to handle?

Background

In February 2009 the Improving Maternity Services in Australia – The Report of the Maternity Services Review (MSR) was released, with the personal stories of women making up 407 of the more than 900 submissions received. A significant proportion (53%) of the women were said to have had personal experience with homebirth. Little information is provided on what was said about homebirth in these submissions and the decision by the MSR not to include homebirth in the funding and insurance reforms being proposed is at odds with the apparent demand for this option of care.

Method

Data for this study comprised 832 submissions to the MSR that are publicly available on the Commonwealth of Australia Department of Health and Aging website. All 832 submissions were downloaded, coded and then entered into NVivo. Content analysis was used to analyse the data that related to homebirth.

Findings

450 of the submissions were from consumers of maternity services (54%). Four hundred and seventy (60%) of the submissions mentioned homebirth. Overall there were 715 references to home birth in the submissions. The submissions mentioning homebirth most commonly discussed the ‘Benefits’ and ‘Barriers’ in accessing this option of care. Benefits to the baby, mother and family were described, along with the benefits obtained from having a midwife at the birth, receiving continuity of care and having a good birth experience. Barriers were described as not having access to a midwife, no funding, no insurance and lack of clinical privileging for midwives.

Conclusion

Many positive recommendations have come from the MSR, however the decision to exclude homebirth from these reforms is perplexing considering the large number of submissions describing the benefits of and barriers to homebirth in Australia. A concerning number of submissions discuss having had or having considered an unattended birth at home due to these barriers. Overall there is the belief that not enabling access to funded, insured homebirth in Australia is a violation of human rights. It appears that homebirth was considered by the MSR as ‘too hot to handle’ and by dismissing it as a minority issue the government sought to avoided dealing with homebirth as a ‘sensitive and controversial issue.’     

论我国保险人订约说明义务制度的完善

保险合同因保险人和投保人的意思表示一致而成立,并以双方的相互诚信为基础。投保人对保险条款的理解主要依赖保险人提供的说明。目前保险人说明义务履行过程中仍存在许多问题,并且引发了多种保险合同纠纷。其问题主要存在于保险人订约说明时间和说明内容方面。应确立“投保人冷静观察期”制度,区分“法定免责”与“自定免责”条款以及有限制地适用“疑义利益解释规则”,以完善我国保险人订约说明义务制度。     

Relocating investments by Tunisian insurance and pension funds towards alternative assets opportunities

This article explores the different barriers preventing Tunisian insurance and pension funds relocating their investments to alternative assets as a source of diversification and the different policy-led measures that could be put in place to support them during their initial years of existence. Data analysis techniques, namely multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical classification, are employed to hold the analysis in alignment with the research aim. The study investigates four groups of Tunisian insurance and pension funds, each characterized by its own investment challenges regarding alternative assets. Subsequently, the study examines certain improvement areas, for instance, reforming the legislative framework to facilitate a supportive tax environment, ensure information symmetry and transparency, etc. The approach of this study is novel for being the first of its kind to explore Tunisian insurance and pension ‘funds’ investments in alternative assets through data analysis techniques. In view of the fact that the history of research on this topic has been brief and fragmented, limited mostly to mature markets, the outcomes of this research can offer useful insights for policymakers in the emerging economies, particularly those undergoing reforms in young democracies like Tunisia in Africa, Eastern and Central Europe, and Latin America.     

流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位:三群体研究

关于流动人口在城市劳动力市场中的地位问题,过去已有大量文献,但研究重点是农民工。这里把外来市民纳入观察视野,利用2008年"迁移和流动劳动力与中国大城市发展"调查数据,分析工资收入和社会保险参与的影响因素。主要研究发现:在工资收入上,不同户籍身份劳动者之间没有净差异;在养老保险和工伤保险参与上,本市居民、外来市民和农民工参与的可能性依次递减。这意味着,工资收入已经基本上由劳动力市场决定,而社会保险参与依然与户籍身份有关。不过,这种关联方式已经从过去的城乡户籍身份歧视转向本地/非本地权益差异。