A multiple model discrimination procedure

The case of selecting between a set of fixed models is considered. The true model is assumed to be contained in the set of proposed models and errors are taken to be normally distributed. A sequential procedure which yeilds probabilities of incorrect selections is proposed. The procedure is shown to have optimal properties and is extended to the estimated model case by a bootstrap procedure.     

On vendor part delivery dates in a stochastic assembly system

This paper describes the development of a model for the determination of optimal mean part delivery dates in a stochastic assembly system for the objective of minimizing the expected cost of subassembly and part inventory. Parts are assembled at each station to a subassembly. The part delivery and processing times at assembly stations follow known probability distributions. An approximate solution technique based on the optimization of individual stations in isolation is developed. The approximation applies a correction factor, as a function of the variability in part delivery and processing time, cost parameters and number of stations, to the decisions from the single station solutions to compensate for interdependence between stations. Results indicate that this is an effective approach and yields good near-optimal solutions with very little computational effort. Insights regarding the effect of the type of distribution used, random processing times, variance of the distribution used and cost parameter values on part delivery dates are also reported.     

汉语语篇中间接回指的认知研究

本文主要从认知语用的角度来研究汉语短篇小说中间接回指的释义问题。通过结合认知语法的概念参照点模型和关联理论,提出了一套可以综合处理各种间接回指的释义原则。     

大学综合排名竞争策略研究——基于网大（www．netbig．com）大学排行榜的实证分析

关于提升大学综舍排名的竞争策略，可以运用累积Logit模型来研究各评价指标排名对大学综合排名的影响效应，通过提高那些对综合排名影响效应较大的指标排名，能更有效地促进综合排名的提高，从而确定有效的排名竞争策略。利用网大（www．netbig．com）“中国大学排行榜”的排名数据进行实证分析，得出排名越靠前的大学通过提升“声誉”和“学术成果”名次能最有效提升综合排名。而排名越靠后的大学则通过提升“学术资源”和“物资资源”名次能最有效提升综合排名等结论。     

A cross-validation of a structural equation model of accidents: organizational and psychological variables as predictors of work safety

A study to establish a structural equation model of accidents is presented. The eight variables included in the model were those associated with accidents in previous research. The reliability of questionnaires to measure those variables and a structural equation model relating them are provided. The model explaining the occurrence of accidents was cross-validated through three Spanish samples (n=123; 182; 124).The model presented a good fit to data in two samples, while a third had unclear fit indices. Therefore, most relationships among variables did not vary among these three samples. The role of the safety variables in the model is discussed. The discussion is also focused on risk measurement difficulties commonly reported in the literature. Finally, some suggestions for future safety research with structural equation modelling techniques are provided.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for censored data

We propose a Bayesian computation and inference method for the Pearson-type chi-squared goodness-of-fit test with right-censored survival data. Our test statistic is derived from the classical Pearson chi-squared test using the differences between the observed and expected counts in the partitioned bins. In the Bayesian paradigm, we generate posterior samples of the model parameter using the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. By replacing the maximum likelihood estimator in the quadratic form with a random observation from the posterior distribution of the model parameter, we can easily construct a chi-squared test statistic. The degrees of freedom of the test equal the number of bins and thus is independent of the dimensionality of the underlying parameter vector. The test statistic recovers the conventional Pearson-type chi-squared structure. Moreover, the proposed algorithm circumvents the burden of evaluating the Fisher information matrix, its inverse and the rank of the variance–covariance matrix. We examine the proposed model diagnostic method using simulation studies and illustrate it with a real data set from a prostate cancer study.     

基于全供需网协同的制造企业供应商绩效评价体系研究

目前中外学者围绕供应商绩效评价体系的研究很多，但如何选择合理的评价指标以构建适应于企业发展需求的供应商评价体系仍然是诸多制造企业困惑的难题。越来越多的企业开始意识到单靠企业自身实力已很难在日趋激烈的市场竞争中取胜，只有依靠全供需网组织的协同发展才可能取得成功。本文在对大量国内外供应商评价体系相关文献回顾和对多家自主及合资品牌制造企业实态调研的基础上，首先搭建了适应全供需网发展需求的制造企业协同模型，并建立了一套客观公平、易于操作的基于全供需网协同的制造业供应商绩效评价体系，为加强企业合作的共赢效果和全供需网的可持续发展具有较强的指导与借鉴意义。     

A bio-psycho-social model of successful aging as shown through the variable “physical activity”

In this article, we present and explain a bio-psycho-social model of successful aging with subjective well-being as a criterion of a successful aging process. We focus on physical activity because it is a crucial behavior. Physical activity can support successful aging in two different ways: first, due to its physiological and cognitive effects, and Second, an older person can enhance subjective well-being (SWB) while being physically active. The model points out that an older person can regulate SWB. To do this, an older person should set and pursue personally and culturally valued goals. The strength of the association between setting a goal and goal pursuance, respectively, and SWB depends on the extent a person is able to satisfy psychological needs (autonomy, competence, relatedness). But, the decision as to which goal will be set and pursued does not belong to the older person exclusively. The bio-psycho-social model explains that the chance to enhance SWB is restricted by personal dispositions (e.g., physiological constitution, psychological factors) and social–structural constraints (e.g., predominant stereotype of aging, facilities especially for target groups). Funding credit: Landesstiftung Baden Württemberg gGmbH [Landesstiftung Foundation]     

Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models by S. An and F. Schorfheide

The paper that An and Schorfheide have written is an excellent piece of work and will become a useful reference for teaching and consultation purposes. The paper discusses in an articulate and convincing manner almost everything that one could think of covering in such a review. This makes the task of the commentator difficult. Nevertheless, I will attempt to add few insights on three issues which, in my opinion, play an important role in applied work and in the interpretation of the estimation result. In particular, I will discuss a) the sensitivity of posterior distributions to prior spreads; b) the effects of model misspecification and an approach to model respecification; c) parameter identification and its consequences for posterior inference.