多媒体教育应用的发展趋势

从三个方面详细介绍多媒体技术与网络通信技术、仿真技术以及人工智能技术的结合及其发展前景     

Intelligent Aggressiveness: Using Forecast Multipliers,Hybrid Forecasting,Fare Adjustment,and Unconstraining Methods to Increase Revenue*

Many studies have begun the exploration of airlines using intelligent aggressiveness (IA) in unidimensional directions (e.g., forecast multipliers alone). This article uses the sophisticated passenger origin–destination simulator (PODS) to examine the revenue impact of four different IA levers—forecast multipliers, unconstraining, hybrid forecasting (HF) and fare adjustment (FA). We also explore the impacts in two different origin–destination networks. Due to the competitive nature of PODS (two or four airlines competing) and its allowance for customer choice, we are able to assess all the implications, including the impact of spill, upgrades and recapture. We find that with a single IA lever, independent of the network and demand level, in a more‐restricted fare environment, the optimal lever is almost always HF with moderate‐to‐aggressive estimates of willingness‐to‐pay, with revenue gains of 0.4–4.3% in a large global network, and gains of 1.7–4.2% in a domestic network, depending on demand level and optimization method used. We also test two additional, less‐restricted fare environments and find that revenue improvements have a wider range (0.8–6.3%) with a single lever in the larger network. Finally, we explore the impacts of allowing the competitors to use basic IA and the airline of interest to use multiple IA levers.     

富勒科学哲学思想演化探析

史蒂夫·富勒是当代世界著名的社会学家和哲学家,在科学哲学界和STS研究领域享有盛誉。他从社会认识论思想出发,开辟了科学哲学研究的新方向和新领域;通过科学修辞学的引入,试图解决各学科间乃至科学共同体内外进行"人类的对话"的难题;通过对智慧设计论的支持,试图克服库恩的范式理论的缺陷,为大众广泛参与科学知识生产过程争取必要的空间。文章对富勒的科学哲学思想演化、内涵及其特征进行了简要分析与评判。     

A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management

In counterterrorism risk management decisions, the analyst can choose to represent terrorist decisions as defender uncertainties or as attacker decisions. We perform a comparative analysis of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods including event trees, influence diagrams, Bayesian networks, decision trees, game theory, and combined methods on the same illustrative examples (container screening for radiological materials) to get insights into the significant differences in assumptions and results. A key tenent of PRA and decision analysis is the use of subjective probability to assess the likelihood of possible outcomes. For each technique, we compare the assumptions, probability assessment requirements, risk levels, and potential insights for risk managers. We find that assessing the distribution of potential attacker decisions is a complex judgment task, particularly considering the adaptation of the attacker to defender decisions. Intelligent adversary risk analysis and adversarial risk analysis are extensions of decision analysis and sequential game theory that help to decompose such judgments. These techniques explicitly show the adaptation of the attacker and the resulting shift in risk based on defender decisions.     

Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model

The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender–attacker–defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.     

Adaptive,Agile Approaches to Organizational Architecture Utilizing Agent Technology*

Intelligent agent-based approaches to software support systems are believed to provide an unparalleled technology for integrating people, materials, and capital equipment. Software agents can be used to automate mechanization strategies for reducing the information content of work. As such, software agents diminish the need for utilizing humans to do repetitive, programmable tasks. The purpose of studies of communities of intelligent agents is to ascertain their ability to accommodate flexible, agile organizational structures that can respond rapidly to changes in the marketplace, increase throughput, reduce costs, and improve quality. This paper presents a conceptual prototype for agent-based structural selfdesign and describes experiments conducted regarding such studies together with the results obtained.     

Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling

Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems.     

Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models

Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis.     

智能制造背景下数控技术专业人才培养模式改革的思考

智能制造是我国制造业转型升级的发展方向,但是,目前我国高职院校培养的数控技术技能人才还不能适应智能制造岗位的需求,企业迫切需要高职院校加快数控技术专业人才培养模式改革。高职院校中的学生技能单一、师资力量薄弱、实训设备落后等问题亟待解决。高职院校需要准确定位数控技术专业人才培养目标,重新构建数控技术专业课程体系,完善数控技术专业实训条件,建设数控技术专业“双师型”教学团队,加强校企合作,推动“1+X”试点工作等。     

人性化考量下的台湾地区司法改革

司法改革不仅是中国大陆近几年来的聚焦所在,也是中国台湾地区推进法治进程的重要举措,特别是其人性化的、多维度的司法改革加强了其社会的和谐程度。这体现为:法院是民主的最后城堡,公正是其的生命,法院之于大众系维权之场所;法官之于大众是超然的独立性的确定;刑事诉讼制度的改革之重体现为改良式当事人进行主义;民事诉讼之人性化改革体现在落实合意选定法官制度;行政诉讼制度之人性化改革体现在原告就被告原则的例外。司法改革的各种举措旨在倡导以尊重人、尊重人的权利、尊重人的自由、尊重人的安全为首任。