Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

Maternal employment in Scandinavia: a comparison of the after-birth employment activity of Norwegian and Swedish women

A striking characteristic of recent Western labour market trends is the rise in employment among mothers of very young children. So far, few studies have analysed the impact of public policies on employment rates of young mothers. In this study we address this issue by comparing two similar countries, Norway and Sweden, which have the same set of policies with slight variations, using data sets with similar designs. We analyse rates of re-entry into paid work after first birth for mothers in 1968–88 by means of hazard regression. One important finding is that the right to paid maternity leave with jobsecurity greatly speeds up the return to work.We want to thank Jan Kowalski for programming assistence and the Swedish Research Council for the Social Sciences and the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences for financial support for the Swedish study. We are grateful to John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, to two anonymous referees and to colleagues at the Demography Unit for valuable comments. Responsible editors. Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Bequests as a heir "disciple device."

This paper develops a model ofinter vivos gifts and bequests in a setting of moral hazard and adverse selection. Altruistic parents do not perfectly know how much effort their children make to earn their living, nor do they know their true level of ability.Inter vivos gifts take place prior to the realization of the children's earnings whereas at the moment of bequests, parents do observe them. We show that an optimal transfer policy generally uses a mix ofinter vivos gifts — deemed as more efficient — and bequests — deemed as more redistributive.We are thankful to Allessandro Cigno, Jacques Cremer, Claude d Aspremont and anonymous referees for their comments.Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997     

The utilization of prevailing evaluation policy in the selection of performance measures

This study considers the problem of inferring a functional evaluation criterion from existing performance measure policies. The objective is to develop a rational basis by which to adaptively evaluate a current best set of performance measures from alternative sets. The analysis is based on a matrix approach for relating system characteristics to performance measures across a set of activities. A procedure for ranking measure combinations which are candidate implementation alternatives is devised using this matrix representation and cost information. An example illustrating the procedure is presented.     

SO42-/TiO2催化合成乙酸乙酯的实验设计

SO4^2-／TiO2固体超强酸薄膜化催化剂能完全代替浓硫酸作催化剂,用乙酸、乙醇来合成乙酸乙酯。在膜催化器上,考察了薄膜化催化剂对乙醇和乙酸合成乙酸乙酯的催化性能。结果表明,薄膜化催化剂显著提高了催化活性;当n（乙醇）：n（乙酸）=1．5：1,原料流量3．0mL／h,在反应温度为110℃时,乙酸乙酯产率可达94．8％,且薄膜催化剂的处理很方便,催化剂再生后可重复使用,不污染环境。     

The cost of children: May the collective approach to household behavior help?

The collective approach to household consumption behavior tries to infer from variables supposed to affect the general bargaining position of household members information on the allocation of consumptions goods and tasks among them. This paper investigates the extension of previous work to the case where children may be considered as a public consumption good by the two adult members of a household. The main question being asked is whether it is possible to retrieve from the aggregate consumption behaviour of the household and the relative earnings of the parents information on the allocation of goods between them and children. This alternative approach to the estimation of the ‘cost of children’ is contrasted with the conventional approach based on a ‘unitary’ representation of and demographic separability assumptions on household consumption behaviour. Received: 29 August 1997/Accepted: 26 November 1998     

Global Climate Emergency: after COP24, climate science,urgency, and the threat to humanity

ABSTRACT

This Special Editorial on the Climate Emergency makes the case that although we are living in the time of Global Climate Emergency we are not yet acting as if we are in an imminent crisis. The authors review key aspects of the institutional response and climate science over the past several decades and the role of the economic system in perpetuating inertia on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Humanity is now the primary influence on the planet, and events in and around COP24 are the latest reminder that we live in a pathological system. A political economy has rendered the UNFCCC process as yet a successful failure. Fundamental change is urgently required. The conclusions contain recommendations and a call to action now.