EDF tests of goodness of fit for transform-both-sides models

Very often in regression analysis, a particular functional form connecting known covariates and unknown parameters is either suggested by previous work or demanded by theoretical considerations so that the deterministic part of the responses has a known form. However, the underlying error structure is often less well understood. In this case, the transform-both-sides (TBS) models are appropriate. In this paper we generalize the usual TBS models and develop tests to assess goodness of fit when fitting TBS or GTBS models. Parameter estimation is discussed, and tests based on the Cramér-von Mises statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic are presented with a table suitable for finite-sample applications.     

On a test for structural stability of euler conditions parameters estimated via the generalized method of moments estimator: small sample properties

This paper presents Monte Carlo experiments on the small sample performance of the predictive test for structural change proposed by Ghysels and Hall. The predictive test was found to be more powerful than the overidentifying restrictions test in terms of size-corrected power when a shift in parameter has occurred. Also, it was found that the power of the predictive test decreases drastically as the number of the out-sample data decreases.     

Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar. While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases. The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century. Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Geography, demography, and early development

This paper explores the role of geography in early development. It presents a model where the odds of survival are higher in geographically favorable regions. In such regions, higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enables them to invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth, helps geographically-favorable economies to attain high levels of a more educated population that is necessary for sustained economic growth. The empirical evidence is generally supportive of the view that geographic attributes influenced regional population levels in Europe and its colonial offshoots around 1500 A.D. and that they affected population levels and educational attainment in low-income countries of the 1990s. For useful comments and suggestions I thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Ann Carlos, Phil Graves, Naci Mocan, Oded Stark, seminar participants at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and the 2002 Royal Economic Society Annual Conference. I owe a special debt of gratitude to my advisor Herschel Grossman who passed away in October 2004 after leaving his mark on many of us in the profession. The standard disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

艺术的魅力在于创新——巴赫六首无伴奏大提琴组曲剖析

巴赫六首无伴奏大提琴组曲是大提琴演奏曲目中的经典之作,它具有完善的理论依据和广阔的表现空间,从被发现到现在,一百多年来产生了许多不同的理解和演绎模式,并且随着岁月的流逝,它的魅力、影响力还在与日俱增,新的诠释、新的理解还在源源不断地问世.     

Earnings assimilation of immigrants in Norway – A reappraisal

The relative earnings growth for immigrants in Norway is computed. Unlike Hayfron (1998, this journal) we define immigrants by country of origin rather than citizenship and perform separate studies of immigrants from inside and outside the OECD region. Replicating Hayfron op.cit. we find that the earnings assimilation is considerably weaker. Further, we find that the earnings of OECD immigrants are comparable to those of natives, while Non-OECD immigrants earn considerably less than natives at the time of entry, but that their relative earnings improve gradually over time. Earnings of different immigrant cohorts converged from 1980 to 1990, indicating a non-linear rate of assimilation. Received: 7 April 2000/Accepted: 4 January 2001     

Microdata Access and Labor Market Research: The U. S. Experience

Summary: The paper illustrates the value of broad researcher access to survey and administrative microdata using examples drawn from the U. S. experience, outlining how analyses of trends in earnings inequality, poverty and employment dynamics using such data have benefited policy makers and contributed to improvements in statistical agency data products. Methods of facilitating researcher access, including the release of public use files, the use of licensing agreements, and the establishment of research data centers, are discussed. * The author thanks Anne Polivka, Marilyn Seastrom and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

《金枝》源起探疑

弗雷泽的《金枝》以内米湖畔的一个古老习俗展开,以世界各地的民间习俗为证,阐述了巫术与早期人类文化生活、宗教的关系。这个习俗是《金枝》赖以构建整个体系的基础,但它在祭司更替的问题上却出现了致命的漏洞,使弗雷泽据此得出的结论并不令人信服。     

Political assessment by international firms: Models or methodologies?

Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance.     

Rank-order tests for the parallelism of several regression surfaces

For testing the hypothesis that several (s?2) linear regression surfaces X_ki=α_k+β_kc_ki+Z_ki (k=1,…,s) are parallel to one another, i.e., β₁=?=β_s, a class of rank-order tests are considered. The tests are shown to be asymptotically distribution-free, and their asymptotic efficiency relative to the general likelihood ratio test is derived. Asymptotic optimality in the sense of Wald is also discussed.