合作与破裂:山东地方官与大刀会关系研究

山东地方官对大刀会、拳会的宽容的政策与态度由来已久，早在甲午中日战争期间，官军就与大刀会形成默契，在共同缉捕盗匪方面取得显著成效，直至义和团在中外联合势力的绞杀下失败，在此期间，大刀会、拳会等名目的民间团体组织与官府的关系就处在一种半合作半破裂的游离状态，即这种宽容政策具有一定的延续性。就义和团运动而言，大刀会等民间会社势力仅仅是为义和团运动构筑的可能性力量而已，程度很高，却极不稳定，它们有待于官方的开掘、引导与锤炼及外力催逼，即官方对刀会、拳会的宽容态度与政策，以及西方列强、教会势力的威逼现实这两种因素，而前者更为重要。     

Estimation of system reliability for exponential distributions based on L ranked set sampling

Abstract

In the case where strength and stress both follow exponential distributions, this paper considers the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the system reliability based on L ranked set sampling (LRSS). The proposed MLE is shown to have existence, uniqueness and asymptotic normality, and its asymptotic variance is obtained by the Fisher information matrix of LRSS. The values of asymptotic relative efficiencies show that the proposed MLE is always more efficient than the MLE using simple random sampling (SRS). However, the MLE using LRSS cannot be written in closed form. Therefore, the modified MLE is proposed using the technique replaced some terms in the maximum likelihood equations by their expectations. The newly modified MLE using LRSS is shown to be superior to the MLE using SRS. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real data set on metastatic renal carcinoma study.     

Childhood exposure to the Second World War and financial risk taking in adult life

Adverse childhood experiences might have long-lasting effects on decisions under uncertainty in adult life. Merging the European Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement with data on conflict events during the Second World War, and relying on region-by-cohort variation in war exposure, we show that warfare exposure during childhood is associated with lower financial risk taking in later life. Individuals who experienced war episodes as children hold less – and are less likely to hold – stocks, but are more likely to hold life insurance, compared to non-exposed individuals. Effects are robust to the inclusion of potential mediating factors, and are tested for nonlinearity and heterogeneity. Moreover, we provide evidence of hedonic adaptation to war, as high and low intensity of war exposure have comparable long-term effects. We also document that war exposure in childhood increases sensitivity to financial uncertainty since exposed-to-war individuals are less likely to hold stocks after periods of high volatility. Finally, we shed light on the most likely mechanism in the relationship between war exposure and financial risk taking – i.e., enhanced sensitivity to uncertainty – and we show that preferences, and not beliefs, channel this relationship.     

Separating psychological momentum from strategic momentum: Evidence from men’s professional tennis

In dynamic contests, strategic momentum and psychological momentum potentially coexist, which makes it difficult to distinguish between the two. We employ the setting of professional tennis, which allows us to separate psychological from strategic momentum. In tennis, converting a break point potentially triggers both strategic momentum—due to a change in the relative position of the players—and psychological momentum—due to a change in the perception of the players. To distinguish between these two momentum types, we employ exogenously given interruptions. Interruptions are predicted to affect psychological momentum negatively, while leaving strategic momentum unaffected. Using 4930 game-by-game observations from 141 Grand Slam men’s single matches, we show that the breaking players’ probability of winning a game increases after converting a break point, which provides evidence for momentum. Moreover, we show that this momentum effect is negatively affected by an interruption. Thus, psychological momentum seems to be the main trigger leading to a performance increase after a converted break point.     

Dynamic capabilities and high-tech entrepreneurial ventures’ performance in the aftermath of an environmental jolt

This paper contributes to studies on dynamic capabilities (DCs) by showing that a neglected environmental contingency – i.e. the occurrence of a jolt – shapes the DCs–performance relationship. We focus on high-tech entrepreneurial ventures because these are the firms that jolts affect most; in so doing, we also advance the understanding of DCs in the entrepreneurship field. We argue that, in the aftermath of an environmental jolt, the high-tech entrepreneurial ventures that use internationalization and new product development capabilities to modify their resource configuration and regain environmental fit enjoy better performance. Econometric estimates on a sample of 340 Italian high-tech entrepreneurial ventures confronting the consequences of the global economic crisis that began in 2008 confirm that separately using these two DCs has a positive performance effect. This effect is stronger for relatively smaller ventures. Interestingly, despite synergies should arise from the combined use of the two DCs, we do not detect any superadditive effects.     

探析我国出口信用证结算地位弱化的成因及影响

鉴于信用证具有比较强的收汇保障的性能和贸易融资功能，因此也一直是我国出口企业贸易结算的首选，使用率高居90％。但是近年来，其结算的“霸主”地位不断弱化，并由此对我国外贸出口产生了较大的不利影响。本文探讨了其中具体的原因及影响，并辅以对策。     

Probability weighting in different domains: The role of affect,fungibility, and stakes

This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment in which probability weighting functions for risky gains were elicited non-parametrically in over 500 incentivized subjects. I compared probability weights for monetary rewards to two less fungible domains involving vouchers for different types of consumption, inducing stronger or weaker (positive) emotions. The level of stakes was also manipulated. I found that the probability to win monetary rewards was weighted almost linearly in the high stakes condition, the probability to win vouchers associated with stronger positive affect was underweighted and the probability to win affect-poor vouchers was strongly underweighted. Substantial underweighting also prevailed in all three domains in the low stakes condition.     

夹注式单词释义对二语阅读中词汇附带习得的影响

用一语夹注、二语夹注及无注释三种方式对同一篇英语文章中的生词加以处理,探究夹注式单词释义对二语阅读中词汇附带习得的影响。研究对象为我国某外国语大学英语专业二年级的3个平行班。实验时,控制班使用的阅读材料不含生词注释,两个实验班使用的阅读材料分别含有一语夹注和二语夹注。统计结果显示,实验班和控制班在词形辨认和形义联系两项即时测试中均无显著性差异。研究表明,不同于旁注及尾注等注释形式,夹注对二语阅读过程中的词汇附带习得并无显著的帮助作用。     

住房抵押贷款对启动住房消费的作用

国际经验表明 ,当一国的人均 GDP达到 30 0 - 10 0 0美元时 ,正是启动住房市场的关键时期 ;而住房抵押贷款在扩大内需、实现住房有效需求的转化中起着重要的作用。本文通过分析当前住房抵押贷款业务中存在的主要问题 ,探究影响我国住房抵押贷款发挥作用的一些主要因素 ,并客观评价现阶段我国住房抵押贷款所能起的作用