中国通胀水平及其不确定性双长记忆统计特征研究——基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-t模型

基于ARFIMA-HYGARCH-t模型对1985年1月至2015年12月间中国月度通货膨胀的均值过程和波动过程进行统计检验,发现通货膨胀水平及其不确定性表现出"双长记忆"行为。在此行为下,利用VAR模型、ARFIMA-HYGARCH-M-t模型及ARFIMA-GJR-t模型检验通货膨胀水平与其不确定性之间的影响关系、影响方向与影响程度,结论支持Friedman-Ball假说;通货膨胀水平正向冲击引发的不确定性程度强于负向冲击引发的不确定性程度。经济政策操作时既要考虑维持通货膨胀的稳定性,也要考虑政策期限结构的长期性。     

Stand By Your Man: Wives' Emotion Work During Men's Unemployment

Recent research on unemployment has not sufficiently acknowledged how unemployment reverberates within families, particularly emotionally. This article uses data from more than 50 in‐depth interviews to illuminate the emotional demands that men's unemployment makes beyond the unemployed individual. It shows that wives of unemployed men do two types of emotion work—self‐focused and other‐focused—and both are aimed toward facilitating husbands' success in the emotionally arduous white‐collar job‐search process. This article extends research on emotion work by suggesting that participants perceive wives' emotion work as a resource with potential economic benefits in the form of unemployed men's reemployment. The findings furthermore suggest that as a resource, wives' emotion work is shaped by the demands of the labor market that their husbands encounter.     

Joint influence of measurement error and non response on estimation of population mean

In this paper, we propose a method to jointly incorporate measurement error and non response in the estimators of population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. We have not only studied some available estimators but also suggested three new estimators in the presence of two types of non sampling errors occurring jointly: the measurement error and the non response. The expressions for the bias and mean square errors of proposed estimator have been derived. A comparative study is made among the proposed estimators, the Hansen and Hurwitz (1946 Hansen, M.H., Hurwitz, W.N. (1946). The problem of non-response in sample surveys. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 41:517–529.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator, the Cochran's (1977 Cochran, W.G. (1977). Sampling Techniques, 3rd Edn. New York: John Wiley &; Sons, Inc. [Google Scholar]) estimator, and the Singh and Kumar (2008 Singh, H.P., Karpe, N. (2008). Estimation of population variance using auxiliary information in the presence of measurement errors. Stat. Trans. New Ser. 9(3):443–470. [Google Scholar]) estimator.     

城乡社会“断裂”与“人口逆淘汰”再思

"人口逆淘汰"问题在人口学研究中已有明确的结论,但从社会学的角度出发,仍有进一步思考的余地。在梳理人口学研究成果的基础之上,从城乡社会"断裂"的社会学角度,对"人口逆淘汰"问题进行再分析、再思考。城乡人口素质差异等"社会统计事实"背后,是城乡社会"断裂"的现实。制度因素如户籍制度和教育健康资源占有与配置等结构因素深刻影响了我国人口素质的提高。     

破除城乡二元结构 着力化解“三农”难题

我国经济体制改革是从农村率先启动并由此带动整个国民经济的体制改革。但是值得人们深思的是,改革开放30年来城乡差别不仅没有缩小,而且还呈扩大的趋势。究其深层原因,就在于城乡二元结构体制还没有根本上改变,城乡差别的制度与体制基础依然存在。十七届三中全会因此把破除城乡二元结构、统筹城乡发展、实现城乡经济社会一体化上升到化解“三农”难题的首要地位。     

城市农民工与转型期中国社会的三元结构

二元社会结构理论不能完全解释中国城市化过程中所出现的大量城市农民工现象 ,因受户籍管理制度的限制 ,他们不可能在较短时间内转化为城市居民。城市农民工是转型期中国社会的特殊群体 ,他们既不同于农村居民 ,也不同于城市居民。城市农民工群体人数众多 ,存在时间较长 ,对社会影响较大 ,足以构成转型期中国社会的第三元。新三元的出现 ,将给城乡二元社会发展带来一系列的问题与挑战 ,不可不研究     

How to avoid concerns with the interpretation of two primary endpoints if significant superiority in one is sufficient for formal proof of efficacy

Formal proof of efficacy of a drug requires that in a prospective experiment, superiority over placebo, or either superiority or at least non-inferiority to an established standard, is demonstrated. Traditionally one primary endpoint is specified, but various diseases exist where treatment success needs to be based on the assessment of two primary endpoints. With co-primary endpoints, both need to be “significant” as a prerequisite to claim study success. Here, no adjustment of the study-wise type-1-error is needed, but sample size is often increased to maintain the pre-defined power. Studies that use an at-least-one concept have been proposed where study success is claimed if superiority for at least one of the endpoints is demonstrated. This is sometimes also called the dual primary endpoint concept, and an appropriate adjustment of the study-wise type-1-error is required. This concept is not covered in the European Guideline on multiplicity because study success can be claimed if one endpoint shows significant superiority, despite a possible deterioration in the other. In line with Röhmel's strategy, we discuss an alternative approach including non-inferiority hypotheses testing that avoids obvious contradictions to proper decision-making. This approach leads back to the co-primary endpoint assessment, and has the advantage that minimum requirements for endpoints can be modeled flexibly for several practical needs. Our simulations show that, if planning assumptions are correct, the proposed additional requirements improve interpretation with only a limited impact on power, that is, on sample size.     

Optimal Reserve Prices in Name‐Your‐Own‐Price Auctions with Bidding and Channel Options

Few papers have explored the optimal reserve prices in the name‐your‐own‐price (NYOP) channel with bidding options in a multiple channel environment. In this paper, we investigate a double‐bid business model in which the consumers can bid twice in the NYOP channel, and compare it with the single‐bid case. We also study the impact of adding a retailer‐own list‐price channel on the optimal reserve prices. This paper focuses on achieving some basic understanding on the potential gain of adding a second bid option to a single‐bid system and on the potential benefits of adding a list‐price channel by the NYOP retailer. We show that a double‐bid scenario can outperform a single‐bid scenario in both single‐channel and dual‐channel situations. The optimal reserve price in the double‐bid scenario is no less than that in the single‐bid case. Furthermore, the addition of a retailer‐own list‐price channel could push up the reserve prices in both single‐bid and double‐bid scenarios.     

固定效应模型基于个体LM的新可混合性检验

对固定效应模型,本文基于拉格朗日乘数（LM）原理提出了一种新的可混合性检验。不同于已有的LM型可混合性检验,这里使用每个截面个体的LM统计量构建可混合性检验统计量。数理分析表明,本文所提的方法有着渐进正态性,对于扰动项的异方差和非正态均稳健,且与PY检验（Pesaran&Yamagata,2008）渐近等价。Monte Carlo模拟实验表明,相对于PY检验及另外两种LM型的可混合性检验,对于不同大小的 ,本文提出的方法有着良好的水平表现和更优越的检验势。     

新生代农民工社会保障问题及其出路

新生代农民工是伴随改革开放而出现的一个新群体,其社会保障权利诉求比父辈们更为强烈,但现实情况是：他们的社会保障权益并没有得到多大改善。第一代农民工社会保障问题亟需政府承认并负担起补偿责任,而新生代农民工的社会保障问题需要国家通过相关法律法规为其搭建起社会保障的政策起点,厘清政府、用人单位和劳动者的社会保障权利、义务和责任,赋予新生代农民工平等的社会权利,同时要未雨绸缪地解决好与之相关的社会问题。