Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

Predictors of Antisocial and Prosocial Behavior in an Adolescent Sports Context

This study examined antisocial and prosocial behavior of N = 439 adolescent athletes between 14 and 17 years of age (67 teams). Multi‐level analyses showed that team membership explained 20 and 13 percent of the variance in antisocial and prosocial behavior in the sports context, respectively. The team effects suggest that aggregating antisocial or prosocial adolescents within teams may partially explain differences in antisocial and prosocial behavior among athletes in the sports context. A trend was found toward a relation between higher levels of moral reasoning within teams, and less antisocial behavior in the sports context. Favorable moral atmosphere was positively associated with more prosocial behavior in the sports context. Finally, supportive coach–athlete relationships were associated with both less antisocial and more prosocial behavior in the sports context.     

关于留数定理的一个推广

研究了留数定理的有关问题,通过举例论证和归纳推理等证明方法,得到了单个留数定理的一个推广结论,最后将此结论应用于一些积分问题中.     

论马克思理论的逻辑起点与出发点

马克思理论的逻辑起点是“本质的人”,出发点是“现实的人”。马克思理论的出发点和逻辑起点的区分,标志了马克思思维方式的彻底变革,为马克思理论的产生和形成奠定了科学的基础。同时,它对我们深化理解马克思理论和构建社会主义和谐社会来说有着极其重要的理论和实践意义。     

if条件句与充分条件性——if构块式理据的研究

多种不同的语义关系都可以进入if条件句,Sweetser提出三域进行分析;这一分析细致深入,但略嫌共性概括不足.充分条件性是if构块式大家族的背后同一理据的假设;据此,if条件句大家族分为两大构块式群,下分四小类.这个大家族是一个典型范畴,第一小类典型条件句作为充分条件假言判断的语言表达形式是最典型的成员,以下各小类向着边缘成员演变,构成了一个连续统.对if条件句的理解,要通过常规推理,将从句一主句的关系补足为充分条件同其结果的关系.if条件句的多种意义最后都可回归到充分条件性,这就是各类if条件句最后都可归入if构块式大家族的同一理据.这一研究再一次表明了含意本体论的常规关系和常规推理理论在研究构块式的理据方面可能起的作用.     

Developing critical and empathic capabilities in intercultural education through the VaKE approach

One of the core goals of intercultural education is to develop critical and empathic reflection on social justice, particularly as related to humanistic choices and how individuals can counteract exclusion. The present article analyses the Values and Knowledge Education (VaKE) approach, which is aimed at raising awareness about implicit value-oriented priorities in decision-making. Through the Human Development and Capability Approach, the applicability of VaKE’s didactic principles is analysed in relation to young people’s perspectives on resettlement in Europe. The VaKE method was used at a 2013 summer camp in Austria with a culturally diverse group of young Europeans who were presented with a dilemma story that highlighted the complex issue of providing assistance to asylum seekers. The participants engaged in various knowledge and moral viability checks that enabled them to engage with opposing arguments. The participants evidenced critical reflection and self-scrutiny, as well as affiliation and empathic imagination, regarding problems that are encountered by asylum seekers.     

Logical abilities and behavior in strategic-form games

This paper investigates the impact of cognitive abilities and preferences on behavior in games. We first measure subjects’ logical abilities and social preferences and then evaluate their influence on behavior in strategic-form games. For this purpose, we estimate how logical abilities and preferences relate to the probability of a subject being of a specific behavioral type. We find that better logical abilities increase the likelihood of sophisticated behavior. This shift is stronger for subjects who are classified as “selfish”. However, not even the most logically able, selfish subjects are identified as Nash types.     

Automating argument construction

Over the past five years the Artificial Intelligence Center at SRI has been developing a new technology to address the problem of automated information management within real- world contexts. The result of this work is a body of techniques for automated reasoning from evidence that we call evidential reasoning. The techniques are based upon the mathematics of belief functions developed by Dempster and Shafer and have been successfully applied to a variety of problems including computer vision, multisensor integration, and intelligence analysis.

We have developed both a formal basis and a framework for implementating automated reasoning systems based upon these techniques. Both the formal and practical approach can be divided into four parts: (1) specifying a set of distinct propositional spaces, (2) specifying the interrelationships among these spaces, (3) representing bodies of evidence as belief distributions, and (4) establishing paths of the bodies for evidence to move through these spaces by means of evidential operations, eventually converging on spaces where the target questions can be answered. These steps specify a means for arguing from multiple bodies of evidence toward a particular (probabilistic) conclusion. Argument construction is the process by which such evidential analyses are constructed and is the analogue of constructing proof trees in a logical context.

This technology features the ability to reason from uncertain, incomplete, and occasionally inaccurate information based upon seven evidential operations: fusion, discounting, translation, projection, summarization, interpretation, and gisting. These operation are theoretically sound but have intuitive appeal as well.

In implementing this formal approach, we have found that evidential arguments can be represented as graphs. To support the construction, modification, and interrogation of evidential arguments, we have developed Gister. Gister provides an interactive, menu-driven, graphical interface that allows these graphical structures to be easily manipulated.

Our goal is to provide effective automated aids to domain experts for argument construction. Gister represents our first attempt at such an aid.     

大学英语四级短文听力的信息解码策略

文章通过对信息解码的理论和实践研究分析,深刻探讨解码策略,帮助解决学生在短文听力过程中存在的难以突破的障碍,从而提高学生英语听力理解能力的技巧。     

博弈逻辑中归纳合理性问题探讨

归纳合理性问题最初是由休谟提出的.对这一问题,哲学家和逻辑学家提出了各种解决途径.在互动的人群的博弈中,由于总是存在某些公共知识,通过若干次博弈,总是有可能达到纳什均衡,因此归纳推理总是合理的.