First Exits from the Swedish Labor Market Due to Disability

Nowadays, with an increasingly aging population, an increasing proportion of the population on disability benefits, and an implicitly lower level of economic output and foregone tax revenue, disability has become a major public policy issue in many countries. Estimating both single risk and competing risks models on a Swedish longitudinal database, this study analyzes the risk of exit from the labor market due to disability at a certain age, conditional on having remained in the labor force until that age. The explanatory variables did not have identical coefficients across destination types. For example, the estimated single risk model shows that a higher level of education decreased the hazard of exiting the labor market with a disability pension, while the estimated competing risks model suggests that a higher level of education increased the hazard of exiting with a partial disability pension, but it decreased the hazard of exiting with a full disability pension.

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

Validation of a Stochastic Discrete Event Model Predicting Virus Concentration on Nurse Hands

Understanding healthcare viral disease transmission and the effect of infection control interventions will inform current and future infection control protocols. In this study, a model was developed to predict virus concentration on nurses’ hands using data from a bacteriophage tracer study conducted in Tucson, Arizona, in an urgent care facility. Surfaces were swabbed 2 hours, 3.5 hours, and 6 hours postseeding to measure virus spread over time. To estimate the full viral load that would have been present on hands without sampling, virus concentrations were summed across time points for 3.5‐ and 6‐hour measurements. A stochastic discrete event model was developed to predict virus concentrations on nurses’ hands, given a distribution of virus concentrations on surfaces and expected frequencies of hand‐to‐surface and orifice contacts and handwashing. Box plots and statistical hypothesis testing were used to compare the model‐predicted and experimentally measured virus concentrations on nurses’ hands. The model was validated with the experimental bacteriophage tracer data because the distribution for model‐predicted virus concentrations on hands captured all observed value ranges, and interquartile ranges for model and experimental values overlapped for all comparison time points. Wilcoxon rank sum tests showed no significant differences in distributions of model‐predicted and experimentally measured virus concentrations on hands. However, limitations in the tracer study indicate that more data are needed to instill more confidence in this validation. Next model development steps include addressing viral concentrations that would be found naturally in healthcare environments and measuring the risk reductions predicted for various infection control interventions.     

Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model

This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries/regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country/regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO₂ emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the “tragedy of the horizon” and the “tragedy of the commons”, which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.     

Optimal Choice for Appointment Scheduling Window under Patient No‐Show Behavior

Observing that patients with longer appointment delays tend to have higher no‐show rates, many providers place a limit on how far into the future that an appointment can be scheduled. This article studies how the choice of appointment scheduling window affects a provider's operational efficiency. We use a single server queue to model the registered appointments in a provider's work schedule, and the capacity of the queue serves as a proxy of the size of the appointment window. The provider chooses a common appointment window for all patients to maximize her long‐run average net reward, which depends on the rewards collected from patients served and the “penalty” paid for those who cannot be scheduled. Using a stylized M/M/1/K queueing model, we provide an analytical characterization for the optimal appointment queue capacity K, and study how it should be adjusted in response to changes in other model parameters. In particular, we find that simply increasing appointment window could be counterproductive when patients become more likely to show up. Patient sensitivity to incremental delays, rather than the magnitudes of no‐show probabilities, plays a more important role in determining the optimal appointment window. Via extensive numerical experiments, we confirm that our analytical results obtained under the M/M/1/K model continue to hold in more realistic settings. Our numerical study also reveals substantial efficiency gains resulted from adopting an optimal appointment scheduling window when the provider has no other operational levers available to deal with patient no‐shows. However, when the provider can adjust panel size and overbooking level, limiting the appointment window serves more as a substitute strategy, rather than a complement.     

“The loss was traumatic… some healthcare providers added to that”: Women’s experiences of miscarriage

Background

Miscarriage is a common event in Australia and is estimated to occur in up to one in four confirmed pregnancies. Prior research has demonstrated that miscarriage is associated with significant distress, grief and loss, and in some cases clinically significant levels of depression, anxiety, and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. Despite these consequences for women’s emotional and mental health, studies have commonly found that women feel that healthcare providers often lack empathy, support, and acknowledgement of their loss.

Scenario Development for 2050 for the Israeli/Palestinian Water Sector

Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza will grow from its current 10 million to between 14 and 28 million. The scenarios developed are compared to available water resources and assessed for their viability. With all scenarios, except very high population growth in the context of inadequate co-operation between Israel and Palestine, the water resource needs of the entire population can be met. The analysis suggests that water need not be an obstacle to peace or economic development in the region.     

Determining person–organization fit for healthcare CEOs: How executive equity sensitivity relates to nonprofit and for‐profit sector selection

This article empirically examines the relationship between the trait of equity sensitivity and employment sector (for‐profit, public, and nonprofit) for senior executives. By controlling for industry (healthcare), we show a relationship between this trait and employment sector in both a single‐state survey and a multistate survey. Findings indicate that benevolents have a propensity to pursue nonprofit positions whereas entitleds are likely to gravitate toward for‐profit positions. Implications for job seekers, employers, and academics are provided.     

建立财政政策支持的农民增收长效机制

20多年来,影响农民收入的主要因素是CPI、政府对农支出以及农林牧渔从业人数。而理应构成农民收入来源的农产品价格以及与此相关的农业生产资料价格却不作为增收的解释变量。这就需要建立财政政策支持的农民增收长效机制。     

Social Care in Old Age: More Than a Funding Problem

There is currently a debate about the future funding of long-term care for old people. Welcome as it is, there is a risk that the focus on finance will obscure equally important questions about who should provide the care and what models of care should be chosen. Many years of research and innovation in the care of the elderly have shown that the effective and efficient provision of simple care services is very difficult to achieve. Social care is at once everyday and peculiarly complex. Some essential characteristics of social care are described which make it unlikely that a solution to the funding problem will improve either the allocation or the outcomes of long-term care.