Uncertainty Reduction Approaches,Uncertainty Coping Approaches,and Process Performance in Financial Services

Developing a better understanding of the impact of uncertainty on process performance has been recognized as an important research opportunity in service design ( Hill, et al., 2002 ). Within this general research stream, our study focuses on the question of what managers can do to most effectively address operational uncertainty and mitigate its negative effects. To begin to address this question, we report on an exploratory study using a sample of professionals in the financial‐services industry who acted as informants on 108 financial‐services processes. These professionals were sampled from a population of graduates of a university in the northeastern region of the United States who were employed in the financial‐services industry. Based on these processes, we empirically examine the relationship between responses to operational uncertainty and process performance after controlling for customer mix, other uncertainty sources, and process type characteristics. Our findings suggest that process improvement—an uncertainty reduction approach related to the internal functioning of the process—as well as several uncertainty coping approaches are associated with better performing processes. However, uncertainty reduction approaches related to customer involvement with, and demands on, the process are not associated with better performing processes. We discuss the implications of our findings for determining what actions managers can take to reduce the negative performance effects of operational uncertainty and how managers can decide which of these actions to take. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations of our study.     

高管人员激励机制与商业银行经营绩效

商业银行经营层是银行治理结构的重要组成部分,高管人员激励机制对商业银行的经营绩效有重要影响。利用山东、河南两省调查样本进行的实证研究表明,商业银行行长的薪酬激励对银行绩效有负面影响,而"工资加奖金"的薪酬形式对银行绩效产生正面影响,行长生成机制和精神激励对银行绩效的影响不显著,而行长从业时间和银行规模与银行绩效正相关。     

Risk management and managerial efficiency in Chinese banks: A network DEA framework

Risk management in Chinese banks has traditionally been the Cinderella of its internal functions. Political stricture and developmental imperative have often overridden standard practice of risk management resulting in large non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. The training and practice of risk managers remain second class compared with foreign banks operating in China. This paper surveys Chinese bank risk managers and constructs metrics of risk management practice and risk management organisation. The metrics are used as intermediate inputs in a Network DEA framework to produce a measure of income efficiency. A statistical test is carried out to assess the importance of the risk metrics in evaluating bank income efficiency.     

管理者过度自信与真实活动盈余管理——基于女性高管的研究视角

选用沪深A股上市公司2009-2014年的数据,依据产权性质,从现有研究较少涉猎的女性高管心理特征与财务决策行为视角,剖析了管理者过度自信是否诱发其实施真实活动盈余管理的行为策略与内在动机。研究表明：过度自信的管理者相比其他管理者更易使用真实活动盈余管理;同时,高管性别会影响真实活动盈余管理的实施,其中,国有企业女性高管的实施动机将被显著削弱,而女性高管中过度自信者的实施动机却发生逆转,变得显著增强。反观非国有企业,女性高管过度自信者的决策却变得更为谨慎,一定程度抑制了真实活动盈余管理的实施。     

Examining DSM-IV Criteria for Pathological Gambling: Psychometric Properties and Evidence from Cognitive Biases

We examined the DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling as assessed with the DSM-IV-based Diagnostic Interview for Gambling Severity (DIGS; Winters, Specker, & Stinchfield, 2002). We first analyzed the psychometric properties of the DIGS, and then assessed the extent to which performance on two judgment and decision-making tasks, the Georgia Gambling Task (Goodie, 2003) and the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994), related to higher reports of gambling pathology. In a sample of frequent gamblers, we found strong psychometric support for the DSM-IV conception of pathological gambling as measured by the DIGS, predictive relationships between DIGS scores and all cognitive performance measures, and significant differences in performance measures between individuals with and without pathological gambling. Analyses using suggested revisions to the pathological gambling threshold (Stinchfield, 2003) revealed that individuals meeting four of the DSM-IV criteria aligned significantly more with pathological gamblers than with non-pathological gamblers, supporting the suggested change in the cutoff score from five to four symptoms. Discussion focuses on the validity of the DSM-IV criteria as assessed by the DIGS and the role of cognitive biases in pathological gambling.     

A Cognitive Neuroscience Approach to Studying the Role of Overconfidence in Problem Gambling

Research on the neural correlates of decision making in gambling tasks may be informative for understanding problem gambling. The present study explored confidence and overconfidence using magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure brain activity during a judgment task. Nineteen undergraduates who self-identified as frequent gamblers (average age 19.7 years; 5 females, 14 males) participated in this study. Participants first completed the DIGS (Winters, Specker & Stinchfield, 2002), a measure of gambling pathology. They then engaged in a behavioral task of confidence assessment, wherein they answered two-alternative trivia questions and estimated the probability that each answer was correct. In a subsequent MEG task, they viewed the questions and a target answer, and indicated with a button press whether the target matched the correct answer. Confidence was directly related to activity in the right prefrontal cortex. Matching and mismatching targets were associated with activity in the medial occipital cortex and left supramarginal gyrus, respectively. An interaction of pathology and match/mismatch was observed in the right inferior occipital-temporal junction region, showing more activity following a mismatch in non-problem gamblers, but not in problem gamblers. Implications of the results for understanding of top–down modulation and attentional systems are discussed in relation to gambling behavior.     

公开信息和私人信息的识别与中国股市的过度自信研究

 本文是对中国股票市场过度自信问题所作的实证研究。本文在投资者对公开信息和私人信息有不同反应的假设基础上,建立一个两变量向量自回归模型,着重考察了A股市场价值加权和平均加权的股票收益率和交易量对私人信息和公开信息冲击的不同反应。实证结果表明：与美国股市的情况类似,中国A股市场上投资者对公开信息反应不足,而对私人信息反应过度,并且私人信息短期内可以造成剧烈冲击,而公开信息冲击较小且不持久,投资者确实存在过度自信现象。     

Exponential random graph models for management research: A case study of executive recruitment

We introduce a recent development in the statistical analysis of relational data that offers rigorous discrimination of a variety of structural and behavioural effects of interest to management research. Exponential random graph models account for the highly interdependent nature of network data that are problematic for the predominant inferential statistical analysis used in management research. We illustrate the value of the approach with an application focused on executive recruitment by large UK firms, modelling migrations of managers among firms as a network of relationships. We find rigorous statistical support for the influences of industry origin in executive recruitment, particularly in relation to legal and accounting activities. The flexibility and sophisticated relational variables available in the models offer considerable analytical power of value to a wide range of management applications.     

Correction Constants for Present Values of Sub-Annual Cash Flows*

When future cash flows are expected to occur at sub-annual intervals, it is widely recognized that present value estimates are biased by the common assumption that each year's flows occur at year-end. Although a “brute force” remedy for the end-of-year (EOY) bias is well known, the method does not appear to be generally used for financial decisions. The author suggests the possible reasons for continued tolerance of EOY bias are that the present method for eliminating the bias is too cumbersome or that the amount of bias is thought to be negligible. The paper also (a) examines the current remedy, indicating several features that hamper its use, (b) presents a correction constant approach that simplifies calculation of unbiased present values for streams of sub-annual cash flows, (c) derives expressions for correction constants under two alternative assumptions about sub-annual discounting, and (d) demonstrates use of the constants and the possible decision-relevance of EOY bias by a simple capital budgeting example.     

An Effectual–Causal View of Managerial Decisions in the Internationalization of Indian MNEs

We use effectuation theory to understand the internationalization of emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs), specifically answering the questions of: (a) how managerial decision logic differs across EMNEs that face disadvantages vs. those that do not, and (b) what managerial decision logic helps EMNEs to mitigate disadvantages. We employ a case research approach to analyze decision events across eight firms that internationalized from India between 1990 and 2015. We find that EMNEs are attuned to welcoming and leveraging surprises in order to transform challenging markets into opportunities; form cautious partnerships with self-selecting stakeholders, and; balance all-or-nothing opportunities with losses they can afford. Furthermore, while EMNEs adopt relatively balanced effectual-causal actions to mitigate the liability of multinationality (LoM), they are more effectual than causal in mitigating the liabilities of foreignness (LoF) and liabilities of origin (LoR).