Decision Making with Uncertain Judgments: A Stochastic Formulation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process*

In the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), priorities are derived via a deterministic method, the eigenvalue decomposition. However, judgments may be subject to error. A stochastic characterization of the pairwise comparison judgment task is provided and statistical models are introduced for deriving the underlying priorities. Specifically, a weighted hierarchical multinomial logit model is used to obtain the priorities. Inference is then conducted from the Bayesian viewpoint using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The stochastic methods are found to give results that are congruent with those of the eigenvector method in matrices of different sizes and different levels of inconsistency. Moreover, inferential statements can be made about the priorities when the stochastic approach is adopted, and these statements may be of considerable value to a decision maker. The methods described are fully compatible with judgments from the standard version of AHP and can be used to construct a stochastic formulation of it.     

Information-Processing Alternatives for Coping with Manufacturing Environment Complexity

Investment in information systems and technology is often justified as a necessary strategy for coping with the increased complexity and information needs of today/s manufacturing environments. However, the world class manufacturing paradigm suggests that increased complexity is not always necessary to meet the needs of markets and customers. Galbraith/s (1973, 1977) seminal information-processing model is applied to a manufacturing environment, supported by the world class manufacturing paradigm, to test the role of various information-processing alternatives for coping with increased environmental complexity. Moderated regression and multiple discriminant analysis are used to test hypotheses in a sample of 164 manufacturing plants. Environmental complexity was found to be related to manufacturing performance for each of the five dependent variables. This relationship was moderated by at least one information-processing alternative for each dependent variable, including self-contained tasks, lateral relations, and environmental management strategies for reducing manufacturing, supplier, and goal diversity. Investments in information systems and reduction of labor and customer diversity did not moderate this relationship. Practices that were found to be particularly effective in moderating this relationship included the use of multifunctional employees, communication of manufacturing strategy, coordination of decision making, product design simplicity, reduction of parts counts, supervisory interaction facilitation, recruiting and selection for flexible employees, JIT practices, blanket purchase orders, and strong customer relationships.     

融入全球价值链对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响

本文基于附加值贸易框架,测度了中国制造业各行业的国际分工地位,并探讨了融入全球价值链分工对中国制造业国际分工地位的影响。结果表明,我国制造业的国际分工地位经历了先下降后上升的“V”型发展轨迹。融入全球价值链的模式不同,导致参与全球价值链分工对我国不同技术层次行业国际分工地位的影响存在差异。中国低技术制造业在融入全球价值链的同时实现了国际分工地位的提升;而对于中高技术行业,参与全球价值链分工的 “锁定”效应十分明显。     

基于CDM模型的信息服务业和制造业创新过程比较

海淀科技园是全国高技术产业和技术创新的中心,是中央政府追求建设的技术创新资源转化成产业创新能力的全国示范区,其中信息服务业是其龙头产业。本文在CDM的分析框架下,基于海淀科技园企业年报的微观数据,对信息服务业创新过程与制造业进行比较研究, 挖掘促进两个产业创新的关键要素,总结制造业和信息服务业内在的创新机理,并为两个产业的创新政策制定提供有效参考。研究发现：在信息服务业中新产品产出倾向与企业规模呈倒U型关系,而制造业中创新规模效益显著;信息服务业的知识密集特征显著,而制造业并不显著;信息服务业中国有企业从创新投入到创新产出的转化效率低下,而制造业中国有企业在创新投入阶段就表现出创新动力不足的问题。     

On the Evolution and Asymptotic Analysis of Open Markov Populations: Application to Consumption Credit

In this paper, we study, by means of randomized sampling, the long-run stability of some open Markov population fed with time-dependent Poisson inputs. We show that state probabilities within transient states converge—even when the overall expected population dimension increases without bound—under general conditions on the transition matrix and input intensities.

Following the convergence results, we obtain ML estimators for a particular sequence of input intensities, where the sequence of new arrivals is modeled by a sigmoidal function. These estimators allow for the forecast, by confidence intervals, of the evolution of the relative population structure in the transient states.

Applying these results to the study of a consumption credit portfolio, we estimate the implicit default rate.     

Manufacturing network configuration in supply chains with product recovery

Efficient implementation of product recovery requires appropriate network structures. In this paper, we study the network design problem of a firm that manufactures new products and remanufactures returned products in its facilities. We examine the capacity decisions and expected performance of two alternative manufacturing network configurations when demand and return flows are both uncertain.     

RFID as an Enabler of Improved Manufacturing Performance*

The use of radio frequency identification (RFID) versus bar coding has been debated with little quantitative research about how to best use RFID's capabilities and when RFID is more advantageous. This article responds to that need by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing how RFID facilitates increased traceability and control in manufacturing, which in turn enables the use of more lot splitting and smaller lot sizes. We develop insights about operating policies (RFID vs. bar‐code tracking mechanisms, extent of lot splitting, and dispatching rules) and an operating condition (setup to processing time ratio) that affect the mean flow time and proportion of jobs tardy in a job shop. A simulation model is used to control factors in the experimental design and the output is evaluated using analysis of variance. The results show the following: (i) performance worsens when bar coding is used with extensive lot splitting, (ii) process changes such as extensive lot splitting may be required to justify RFID use instead of bar coding, (iii) the earliest operation due date dispatching rule offers an attractive alternative to other rules studied in previous lot splitting research, and (iv) the performance improvements with RFID and increased lot splitting are larger when the setup to processing time ratio is smaller. In a broader context, we fill a research void by quantitatively showing how RFID can be used as an advanced manufacturing technology that enables more factory automation and better performance along several dimensions. The article concludes by summarizing the results and identifying ideas for future research.     

金砖国家装备制造业出口增加值比较研究

文章将KWW法扩展,从产业角度创新出口增加值核算方法。分解量化金砖国家装备制造业出口增加值,比较其在全球产业间的流动。不仅得到更真实的贸易利得,还实现了对出口增加值在全球行业间流动的动态分析。结果显示：（1）2000-2014年,中国该行业出口增加值经快速增长,远高于其他国家。2013年后增速回落,出口增加值率先降后升稳定于30%。中巴俄出口增加值率为30%左右,印度最低。（2）从全球流动现状看,金砖国家最终产品出口增加值占比较高。其中,中巴中间产品贸易有较大增加,深入到全球价值链分工体系。中国的重复统计项和出口返回部分最高。而俄印最终产品贸易比重不断增加。生产日益“碎片化”背景下,扩展的KWW法对研究出口增加值有重要的理论意义。     

中国制造业要素配置效率的测算、变化机制与政府干预效应

本文利用改进的APG模型框架对中国各省份地区制造业部门生产效率增长进行分解和测算,并针对导致中国制造业要素配置效率低下的动因进行深入分析。主要的发现是：技术效率和企业净进入是推动中国制造业生产效率增长的主要来源,而要素配置效率对中国制造业生产效率增长的贡献非常有限,由此验证要素市场的发展滞后是造成中国经济增长乏力的重要内在因素。进一步的检验发现是,地方政府对要素市场的干预是造成制造业要素配置效率低下的主要动因,这种干预效应总体上呈现倒U型关系。更为细致的分解结果表明,政府干预对于资本要素配置效率的作用效应呈倒U型关系,而对劳动要素配置效率呈U型关系。这些检验结果均证明,全面推进要素市场的市场化导向改革,减少政府干预对微观经济部门的扭曲性影响,是维持中国制造业生产效率可持续增长的重要改革措施。     

先进制造模式研究综述

本文明确阐述了先进制造模式及其特性,分析了当前世界各国在实施先进制造战略方面的进展.针对近几年来国内外对敏捷制造、绿色制造、计算机集成制造、大规模定制、精益生产等几种典型的先进制造模式的研究内容和实践效果进行综述,并进一步探讨在此研究领域中的未来发展趋势.