产品市场竞争程度对企业融资行为的影响

许多研究表明我国上市公司存在较强的股权融资偏好。国内学者根据代理理论认为股权融资过多的企业未能充分利用财务杠杆而使企业绩效下降,而本文主要从产品市场竞争对资本结构影响这一角度来研究上市公司的融资行为。研究发现,上市公司的股权融资偏好和上市公司治理结构不完善、代理问题严重等体制和政策因素有关,但是,激烈的产品市场竞争也是导致企业采用低财务杠杆的重要原因,而且由于这一原因而导致的财务保守行为是合理的,它是企业为避免财务风险提高产品市场竞争能力而采取的战略行为。     

股指期货基于信息传递效应稳定作用的局限性

股指期货对现货市场的波动有潜在的影响。有学者认为股指期货能向现货市场传递信息,可提高信息质量,加快证券价格对新信息的反应速度,促进信息效率,从而起到稳定市场的作用。但是,股指期货信息传递效应对现货市场的稳定作用具有一定的局限性,这种局限性源于：第一,股指期货有限的价格发现功能;第二,股指期货有可能向现货市场传递有噪音信息;第三,市场解释信息方式影响稳定作用发挥的程度;第四,股指期货引起信息同质性,使市场丧失信念多样性,更易反应过度。     

我国A股市场复杂网络结构及稳定性研究

本文运用复杂网络分析方法,从一个全新的角度分析中国A股市场个股的相关性,以2014年至2015年间的股票市场交易数据为基础,以上证180指数成分股股票为样本,构建我国股票市场的复杂网络系统。通过计算分析股票网络的拓扑特征统计量,并与美股成熟市场进行比较,研究我国A股市场个股联动的网络结构;同时,在我国金融市场进一步开放的大背景下,本文通过研究样本股票网络在不同情形攻击下网络结构的变化,探索A股市场不同公司股价波动的联动性规律,为监管者稳定证券市场,特别是在“股灾”等极端情况下维持证券市场的流动性功能提供新的决策参考,以利于中国证券市场更好地为经济转型提供金融支持,保护中小投资者利益。     

An efficient and fast algorithm for estimating the frequencies of superimposed exponential signals in zero-mean multiplicative and additive noise

In this paper, we consider the superimposed exponential signals in zero-mean multiplicative and additive noise when all the noise are independently and identically distributed. We use a three-step iterative procedure to estimate the frequencies of the considered model. It is observed that the estimators are consistent and work quite well in terms of biases and mean square errors. Moreover, the convergence rate of the estimators attains O _p (N ^?3/2), which is the best convergence rate in the case of only additive noise and constant amplitude.     

Geometric Anisotropic Spatial Point Pattern Analysis and Cox Processes

We consider spatial point processes with a pair correlation function, which depends only on the lag vector between a pair of points. Our interest is in statistical models with a special kind of ‘structured’ anisotropy: the pair correlation function is geometric anisotropic if it is elliptical but not spherical. In particular, we study Cox process models with an elliptical pair correlation function, including shot noise Cox processes and log Gaussian Cox processes, and we develop estimation procedures using summary statistics and Bayesian methods. Our methodology is illustrated on real and synthetic datasets of spatial point patterns.     

论市场经济转型中的政府职能转变

在中国市场经济转型过程中，如何正确认识处理市场与政府关系、促进政府职能转变一直是困扰我们的关键问题。文章认为，当今的中国社会仍处在如何从早先极端政治化的“全能国家”与“全能政府”中“侧生”出一个市场经济条件下相对独立的“非政治化”领域的阶段，即由改革前的计划经济体制与无所不包的“全能国家”、“全能政府”为搞活经济不断让利放权、自主限权，收缩权力触角并让渡和创造出越来越多的公民个人世俗活动空间。只有逐步摒弃并祛除由来已久的“人治”和“官本位”传统，依靠制度法治建设压缩政府权限，维持把握市场与政府行为的边界，中国市场经济才有可能稳定健康地发展下去。     

Exit, Voice, Loyalty in Transition: A Theoretical Framework

On the grounds of borrowing and reforming Hirschman’s terminology, ‘exit, voice, loyalty’, we show both a conceptual and a methodological framework that can be used to raise questions in transitology studies. These issues include the following points: are there any models being developed concerning the transition countries?; are there any similar models in Western Europe?; is there any convergence between the models of both Eastern and Western Europe? If the answer to the last issue is yes, then in which areas? Or if it is a no, is it true that a special economic, social and also political system is developing in Eastern Europe? Another issue concerns how strong the growth potential of the different models is. It also examines which are the successful models and which are not, and what is the role of the economic and political elite in the development of these models. This study includes only the theoretical framework.     

遵循创投发展规律深化国有创投公司市场化改革——部分省市国有创投公司调研报告

江苏、浙江及深圳等部分省市国有创投公司成功的原因，在于不断按照市场化、专业化要求推进体制机制创新，突破现行国有评估、考核和激励机制等的束缚。上海国有创投业在国内与深圳创投、江苏高投等公司基本上同时起步，但近年来在实力和影响力方面差距拉大。建议上海国有创投业体现政府职能和市场化的经营活动要分开；国资创投活动要与市场融合特别是与社会资金融合；通过改革和创新突破现有国资规定。     

Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space

The problem of whether seasonal decomposition should be used prior to or after aggregation of time series is quite old. We tackle the problem by using a state-space representation and the variance/covariance structure of a simplified one-component model. The variances of the estimated components in a two-series system are compared for direct and indirect approaches and also to a multivariate method. The covariance structure between the two time series is important for the relative efficiency. Indirect estimation is always best when the series are independent, but when the series or the measurement errors are negatively correlated, direct estimation may be much better in the above sense. Some covariance structures indicate that direct estimation should be used while others indicate that an indirect approach is more efficient. Signal-to-noise ratios and relative variances are used for inference.     

农业产业化是西部农业发展的必由之路

西部农业发展要变地域资源优势为市场竞争优势、要调整农业产业结构、要创农产品的品牌、提高农产品的市场竞争力、要增强农民参与市场谈判与竞争的能力、提高西部农民的生活水平 ,只有走农业产业化的道路。而政府的“绿箱”政策、农业保险体系的建立、市场外部环境的完善与规范等 ,是对农业产业化的有力支持和保障。