数字贸易测度的概念架构、指标体系和测度方法初探

数字贸易是构建“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局的新模式和新业态,也是各国参与国际竞争与合作的重要领域。然而,国际社会对数字贸易概念的认识还比较模糊,直接影响着数字贸易市场拓展和规则制定,数字贸易测度也成为国际贸易统计领域具有挑战性课题。本文在回顾和梳理国际社会关于数字贸易概念和测度方法既有论述的基础上,提出了数字贸易的“二元三环”概念架构,构建了测度数字贸易规模的指标体系,开发了以“实际数字交付比率”为关键的数字贸易测度法,并使用中国“两化融合”平台数据库的数据,对中国2018—2019 年数字贸易进出口总额进行了试测度。本文的研究成果对我国数字贸易测度研究以及有关部门建立数字贸易统计监测制度具有借鉴作用。     

智力资本计量与评价方法研究

知识经济时代,对知识经济中的核心部分—智力资本的计量和评价作为知识管理的重要工具,已日渐成为当前理论界和实务界关注的焦点之一。在我国,对智力资本计量评价方法的理论研究还很有限,其具体运用也处于萌芽阶段。文章在分析智力资本的基本定义与构成要素的基础上,对目前国际上较为前沿的几种智力资本计量与评价方法进行了分析和比较,并阐述了每种方法的优缺点及其所适用的环境。     

Perceived effectiveness and implementation of public relations measurement and evaluation tools among European providers and consumers of PR services

While the need for and lack of implementation of more sophisticated methods for measuring the impact of public relations efforts has been well documented in the U.S. and some other world regions, relatively little information exist about this practice in the European Union. Results from a survey of both consumers and providers of public relations in the EU shows that perceptions of effectiveness and actual use are not related for most advanced techniques of measurement and evaluation. These results demonstrate some potentially important differences between the perceptions of providers and consumers that may support practitioner observations regarding a lack of interest among clients in more accurate assessment of results from public relations activities.     

Estimation with unbalanced panel data having covariate measurement error

Panel data with covariate measurement error appear frequently in various studies. Due to the sampling design and/or missing data, panel data are often unbalanced in the sense that panels have different sizes. For balanced panel data (i.e., panels having the same size), there exists a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for adjusting covariate measurement error, which does not require additional validation data. This paper extends the GMM approach of adjusting covariate measurement error to unbalanced panel data. Two health related longitudinal surveys are used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method.     

Approximate bounded influence estimation for longitudinal data with outliers and measurement errors

Mixed effects models or random effects models are popular for the analysis of longitudinal data. In practice, longitudinal data are often complex since there may be outliers in both the response and the covariates and there may be measurement errors. The likelihood method is a common approach for these problems but it can be computationally very intensive and sometimes may even be computationally infeasible. In this article, we consider approximate robust methods for nonlinear mixed effects models to simultaneously address outliers and measurement errors. The approximate methods are computationally very efficient. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the approximate estimates. The methods can also be extended to missing data problems. An example is used to illustrate the methods and a simulation is conducted to evaluate the methods.     

农村住户调查县级样本代表性评估方法研究

 全国农村住户调查县级样本在1984年抽选后几未改变,在全国农村住户新一轮样本轮换中对其代表性进行评估非常必要,因此研究开发县级样本代表性评估方法有重要意义。本文利用第二次全国农业普查和县市统计数据,以甘肃省为例,通过分析调查县样本特性、考察调查县的收入分布和地域分布,探索调查县农民收入水平对所在省农民收入水平代表性的评估与调查县调整方法。     

地区与国家GDP核算总量数据衔接方法比较研究

 本文以国家数据为准,通过采用2005-2009年的数据为样本,从理论与实证上比较分析了地区与国家GDP数据衔接的三种方法即Geary和Stark的产出估算方法、线性调整法与辅助回归法,比较结果显示：（1）从理论上分析,三种方法都有其合理性,只是辅助回归法较另两种方法更具可取性。（2）从衔接效果上看,辅助回归法优于Geary和Stark的产出估算方法,Geary和Stark的产出估算方法又优于线性调整法。不过不同的方法皆有相应的适用场合与特点以及不同的衔接效果,因而只能说三种方法中有趋优的方法,但不能明确断定何种方法可以具体应用于实际数据衔接中并能达到良好的调整效果。     

基于极值Copula的投资组合集成风险度量方法

 应用极值的阈值与峰值模型来度量单个资产的风险价值,用两种不同的方法度量了基于Copula函数的沪深指数收益率的相关结构,比较了不同Copula函数下基于沪深指数的二元投资组合集成风险值,结果说明：Gauss Copula函数对沪深指数收益率的相关结构拟合较好,阈值模型的极值Copula能较好的度量投资组合的集成风险值,在高置信度下（0.99以上）,基于Gumble Copula函数的上尾（正收益）集成风险值、基于Clayton Copula函数的下尾（负收益）集成风险值与真实值最为接近。直接加权的方法会高估投资组合的风险,假设沪深指数的收益率服从二元正态分布会低估风险。峰值法的集成风险值误差较大。     

中国劳动报酬占比变动的统计测算与结构解析

只有厘清核算口径及相关的数据修订情况,才能测算出劳动报酬占比的真实数值,进而找准其变动的根本原因。本文首先依据资金流量表的最新修订资料,充分考虑劳动报酬指标核算口径的两次重大调整及与SNA推荐口径和真实意义口径的差异,重新测算了中国的劳动报酬占比,然后在纵向分析和横向比较的基础上,从正规与非正规部门结构视角解析给出中国劳动报酬变动的根本原因及相应的政策着眼点。     

半参数变系数回归模型的空间相关性检验

对半参数变系数回归模型,构造了新的空间相关性检验统计量,利用三阶矩 逼近方法导出了其检验 值的近似计算公式,蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明该统计量在检测空间相关性方面具有较高的准确性和可靠性。同时考察了误差项服从不同分布时的检验功效,体现出该检验方法的稳健性。进一步,我们还给出了检验统计量的Bootstrap方法以及检验水平的模拟效果。