农村留守老人困境的社会工作干预实验——基于安徽省X县G乡S自然村的实证研究

利用社会工作中的小组工作和地区发展模式,对X县G乡S自然村留守老人的困境进行干预,实验证明,干预工作提升了留守老人解决问题和应对压力的能力;构建和完善了帮助留守老人解决问题和应对压力的社会支持系统。实验结果还证明,社会工作干预方法费时短、成本低、效益高,对解决农村留守老人问题有较强可行性。     

论我国反垄断法的缺陷及完善——以可口可乐并购汇源案为例

可口可乐并购汇源受到商务部审查并被否决,此案是我国《反垄断法》实施以来第一个经营者集中被否决的案件,具有示范性意义。该案反映了我国《反垄断法》的实施,见证了我国《反垄断法》的发展与反垄断法理论的丰富,并暴露出我国《反垄断法》存在的问题,具有不确定性,因此反垄断法的实施细则等一系列配套法规亟待出台。     

社群互动与认同重构———以东太湖流域的一个移民社会为例

污名是移民在地化过程中常见的现象,但学界对于污名与认同的关系的认识仍有待深入。通过对一个位于吴江东太湖流域的移民社会的考察,发现移民在与本地人的污名互动中形成了多样化的认同分类,即原籍认同分类“河南人 - 苏北人 - 本地人”、地方认同分类“太湖人 - 高田人”以及污名分类“太湖强盗 - 高田蛮子”。 污名互动表面上制造了社会的分裂,但实际上强调了不同社群的共存关系,其对于移民完成在地化和认同重构具有重要意义。 从污名切入进行移民认同的研究时,应在污名互动中全面考察互动各方的污名规范与污名实践,从而解答充满污名的社会如何具备共同体的可能性的问题。     

论市场交换的供给与需求、成本与收入双重属性(上)

本文试图以一种崭新的非均衡的供给与需求、成本与收入双重属性的市场交换概念,重新阐释市场交换问题。两个人在竞争市场上相互交换的两种不同商品,既是自己的供给商品,即自己生产、拥有、卖出的商品,又是对方的需求商品,即对方用供给商品买回的满足自己需要的商品,两个交换商品具有供给与需求双重属性,这种属性说明用什么交换什么;供给商品生产和交换消耗的费用称谓供给成本,简称成本,用成本买回的需求商品称谓需求收入,简称收入,两个成本交换后变成了两个收入,成本与收入也有双重属性,这种属性说明两种交换商品用多少成本换回多少收入。市场交换就是用供给交换需求,用成本交换收入,追逐收入大于成本的利润,避免收入小于成本的亏损,这就是市场交换机制。     

唐宋穆斯林史实杂考

本文依据文献资料,对唐宋有关穆斯林史的几段有歧见的史料加以分析,内容涉及唐代的蕃坊、辽与大食的关系、蕃坊中蕃客的宗教信仰、蕃商社会的法律等问题,作者在引证学术界已有成果的基础上,提出了自己的观点。     

A clarifying comparison of methods for controlling the false discovery rate

Traditional multiple hypothesis testing procedures fix an error rate and determine the corresponding rejection region. In 2002 Storey proposed a fixed rejection region procedure and showed numerically that it can gain more power than the fixed error rate procedure of Benjamini and Hochberg while controlling the same false discovery rate (FDR). In this paper it is proved that when the number of alternatives is small compared to the total number of hypotheses, Storey's method can be less powerful than that of Benjamini and Hochberg. Moreover, the two procedures are compared by setting them to produce the same FDR. The difference in power between Storey's procedure and that of Benjamini and Hochberg is near zero when the distance between the null and alternative distributions is large, but Benjamini and Hochberg's procedure becomes more powerful as the distance decreases. It is shown that modifying the Benjamini and Hochberg procedure to incorporate an estimate of the proportion of true null hypotheses as proposed by Black gives a procedure with superior power.     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Using Bayesian graphical models to model biases in observational studies and to combine multiple sources of data: application to low birth weight and water disinfection by-products

Summary.  Data in the social, behavioural and health sciences frequently come from observational studies instead of controlled experiments. In addition to random errors, observational data typically contain additional sources of uncertainty such as missing values, unmeasured confounders and selection biases. Also, the research question is often different from that which a particular source of data was designed to answer, and so not all relevant variables are measured. As a result, multiple sources of data are often necessary to identify the biases and to inform about different aspects of the research question. Bayesian graphical models provide a coherent way to connect a series of local submodels, based on different data sets, into a global unified analysis. We present a unified modelling framework that will account for multiple biases simultaneously and give more accurate parameter estimates than standard approaches. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from a study of water disinfection by-products and adverse birth outcomes in the UK.     

A computationally simple bivariate survival estimator for efficacy and safety

Both treatment efficacy and safety are typically the primary endpoints in Phase II, and even in some Phase III, clinical trials. Efficacy is frequently measured by time to response, death, or some other milestone event and thus is a continuous, possibly censored, outcome. Safety, however, is frequently measured on a discrete scale; in Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group clinical trial E2290, it was measured as the number of weekly rounds of chemotherapy that were tolerable to colorectal cancer patients. For the joint analysis of efficacy and safety, we propose a non-parametric, computationally simple estimator for the bivariate survival function when one time-to-event is continuous, one is discrete, and both are subject to right-censoring. The bivariate censoring times may depend on each other, but they are assumed to be independent of both event times. We derive a closed-form covariance estimator for the survivor function which allows for inference to be based on any of several possible statistics of interest. In addition, we derive its covariance with respect to calendar time of analysis, allowing for its use in sequential studies.     

从基于资源到面向需求——地方政府决策的一种利益分析

市场经济条件下,一些地方政府和企业、事业单位仍然基于地方资源而不是生产者和消费者通过市场交换所反映出来的需求进行决策,这已导致低效、封闭以及资源配置不合理,并加剧寻租现象。本文主要分析基于资源决策思路的负面效果、原因、表现,以及向面向需求决策方式转变的重要性。