PREFERENCE MAPPING OF PERCEIVED INFORMATION STRUCTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS DESIGN

In a recent issue of this journal, Watkins [13] presented an approach for discovery of decision-maker perceptions of the complexity (dimensionality) of information items that might be supplied by a decision support system. Through use of multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis, relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers, sharing common perceptions of various information items, were formed. This prior research was referred to as a first step in suggesting that information reports could be tailored to groups of decision makers classified on the basis of common perceptions of information. The current research extends the prior study by evaluating decision maker preferences for information in a variety of decision-making scenarios in relation to the previously identified perceptions of the information. Based on the results of the study, conclusions are made which suggest that the tailoring of information to groups of decision makers should be based on both perceptions and preferences for information. Even so, it is demonstrated that the decision tasks have an impact on the preferences for information which may affect the attempt to tailor information to groups of decision makers.     

A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL

In the 1967 Harvard-Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two-point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

基于多元智能理论的信息化教学设计

加德纳提出的多元智能理论给传统教育观念带来了巨大的冲击,也赋予了信息化教学设计新的依据和新的视角.基于多元智能理论,从目标导向、内容构建、环境创设、评价设计四个方面探讨信息化教学设计的基本理念,并对多元智能理论指导下的信息化教学设计模式进行分析.     

西方政党政治中的利益集团、政党腐败及其治理

政党政治是西方民主政治的重要组成部分,是政治民主化的发展成果。政党的社会整合能力削弱,导致了西方政治过程中利益集团作为一支强大的力量强势崛起,并通过政治献金、游说向执政党施加压力,以期将集团的利益诉求通过执政党和政府的公共政策制定合法化。政党与利益集团的媾和促成了权力与利益的互换,政党腐败滋生,腐蚀和瓦解着当前政治体制,耗竭政党的社会基础与执政资源,威胁政党政治的生命。为此,只有完善政党与利益集团自身的组织规范,实现对政党权力的约束;改变单一的政党经费筹集方式,增强竞选经费使用的透明度;建立开放与多元竞争的公共政策制定机制,实现公共政策的利益均衡,构筑明确的权力与利益边界,才能重构政党与利益集团的关系,消减政党与利益集团的不正当交易,遏制腐败的发生。     

美国竞选财政制度初探

美国竞选财政制度是美国政治制度中争议最多的问题之一。由于利益集团政策参与的需求和竞选人竞选的需要 ,美国的竞选捐赠日益加剧 ,捐赠规模日趋膨胀 ,并在一定程度上导致了决策过程中利益代表性的偏差。由此 ,美国早期的法律就对利益集团的竞选捐赠进行限制 ,2 0世纪 4 0年代以来 ,美国关于竞选财政制度改革的立法不断。但改革遇到利益需求和关于合宪性问题等种种障碍 ,步履维艰。美国政治中的这一两难状况是其政治体制所使然 ,有关竞选财政制度改革的争论仍将继续下去。     

重庆土家族婚俗现状研究

重庆土家族婚俗文化,是巴渝文化的活化石。文章通过田野调查与相关文献研究,探讨土家族婚俗特色及其文化价值,试图为土家族婚俗(这一非物质文化遗产的保护工作)提供一些理性的思考。     

从强制收容到无偿救助——基于多源流理论的政策分析

政策科学是一门与社会实际紧密联系的学科,它随着人们对社会实际的认识的不断深入而发展。在孙志刚事件发生后,我们发现传统的政策过程阶段论无法很好地解释这一事件的发生以及从强制收容到无偿救助的转变过程。文章试图运用多源流理论来解释这一过程,从而提供一种不同于传统视角但同样合理的解释。     

大学生网络群体极化的成因及对策研究

网络群体极化的发生是由网络环境下群体行为的心理特征、沉默的螺旋及网络中无处不在的信息过滤与茧房共同造成的。大学生作为使用网络的主力军,在信息的选择和接收上也更容易走向极端。大学生网络群体极化的主要表现为网络环境下的从众心理、简单化思维、长时间沉湎于劣质信息的茧房。大学生网络群体极化的防治要靠培育学生的责任意识、思政工作者的正确引导及政府对网络的监管共同发挥作用。