基于风险分析的银行存款保险费率研究

建立存款保险制度已是我国目前金融改革的重点工作,所以,借鉴国外先进经验,合理厘定保险费率,防范银行的道德风险和逆选择极具现实意义。可以从风险分析角度出发,结合理论模型分析存款保险制度框架下的银行倒闭原因、储户决策、银行主体以及保险机构,引入约束条件检验效用结果。研究结果表明:伴随我国中小银行的大量兴起,金融风险日益加大,而银行挤兑的发生也势必会对金融市场带来巨大冲击。因此,建立适合我国的存款保险制度势在必行,需从风险管理角度、费率模型方案选取、制度施行约束条件、监管体系运作机制等方面入手。     

公共政策变迁间断-平衡模型的修正及应用--兼论新中国科研政策变迁的渐进与突变规律

公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架是以美国三权分立和联邦制政治制度为基础构建的,原分析框架限定于考察美国公共政策变迁趋势。尝试从适用条件、理论假设、变迁过程和根本原因等维度对间断—平衡分析框架予以修正,将修正后分析框架的适用条件扩大为稳定的政治制度结构,同时用修正后的分析框架考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁的总体规律性。这样就达致了两个目的：一是修正和检验公共政策变迁间断—平衡分析框架;二是考察新中国建立以来科研政策变迁趋势,并为解释公共政策变迁提供新的理论工具。     

基于腐败风险的司法腐败博弈模型及防治对策

司法腐败产生的微观原因在于司法人员对最大化个人收益的追求,以个人理性为基本假设的博弈论,是研究行为人发生相互作用时的决策及决策均衡问题的一门学科。以司法审判为研究背景,通过构建风险情形下法官司法腐败的一般化博弈模型来解读司法腐败现象,从博弈均衡角度揭示司法腐败局中人间策略选择规律,进而从加大腐败风险角度提出构建司法腐败防治机制的相关对策及建议。     

政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链谈判-协调机制研究

当前我国人造板产业面临效率低下、资源浪费和环境污染等问题,上下游企业缺乏合作与协调。本文界定了人造板绿色供应链系统,运用契约理论和纳什谈判理论,分别构建了政府激励政策下人造板绿色供应链集中优化决策、分散均衡决策和谈判协调决策模型,从而建立了相应的收益分享-成本分担契约谈判协调机制,并基于相关行业和企业经验数据,与传统人造板供应链进行了对比数值分析。研究结果表明:(1)收益分享-成本分担契约谈判-协调机制能够很好地实现人造板绿色供应链的协调运营,提高资源效率,降低环境负影响和提升运营绩效。(2)人造板绿色供应链管理模式下供应链及其成员的最优利润均高于传统管理模式,谈判协调决策情形下供应链及其成员的最优利润均高于分散均衡决策情形。(3)制定有"门槛"的增值税即征即退政策和适当的环境税政策,自建经济林场、选用经济型枝桠材,强化技术研发和工艺改进,有助于提高人造板供应链运营绩效。     

The implications of phasing out energy subsidies in Egypt

Due to the distortions they create, the Egyptian government finally decided to phase out energy subsidies. This paper is an attempt to assess the dynamic and welfare implications of phasing energy subsidies. The paper also attempts to evaluate a number of policies designed to reduce the burden of phasing out energy subsidies on consumers. A policy of gradual elimination of energy subsides combined with gradual elimination of tariffs is found to reduce the burden of subsidy removal substantially.     

基于互联网环境下的企业网络广告投资策略研究

随着网络广告的日益普及,选择投放合适的网络广告已经成为决定广告投放成功的关键,企业在进行网络广告投资决策时,面临着选择投资门户网络广告和长尾网络广告的困境。然而,目前并没有针对投放门户网络广告和长尾网络广告的理论和方法,因此需要投放门户网络广告和长尾网络广告的理论、方法和模型以有效指导企业广告投放的运作管理,为企业创造更高的价值。本文引进柯布-道格拉斯销售函数 S（a,q）=α-βa^-γq^-δ,尝试应用博弈论方法构建基于门户网络广告和长尾网络广告的非合作静态Nash投资模型、合作静态Nash投资模型和Stackelberg主从博弈投资决策模型,并通过模型均衡分析求出广告的投资小收益大的条件。与非合作的纳什均衡情况相比,Stackelberg主从博弈模型中,优先投资的网络广告投资小收益大,次后投资的网络广告投资大收益小。但总的投资和收益关系不确定。同其他三种投资情况相比,基于合作的投资策略比非合作和Stackelberg先后投资策略所获得的收益要大。同时,文中运用一个数值算例进一步验证了结论的有效性。解决了企业面临投资门户网络广告和长尾网络广告决策的困境,研究结论为企业投资网络广告提供理论依据和决策方法。     

Incentives for information sharing in duopoly with capacity constraints

We study the ex ante incentives for firms to share their private information in a Cournot duopoly with capacity constraints. In both demand and cost information sharing games, we show that the incentives can be reversed when some equilibrium solutions are binding on capacity. Especially, we identify some conditions under which partial information sharing is the dominant strategy under both games. Numerical examples are provided for illustration. In addition, we show that information sharing does not necessarily increase social welfare.     

Optimal Routing Among ⋅/M/1 Queues with Partial Information

Abstract

When routing dynamically randomly arriving messages, the controller of a high-speed communication network very often gets the information on the congestion state of down stream nodes only after a considerable delay, making that information irrelevant at decision epochs. We consider the situation where jobs arrive according to a Poisson process and must be routed to one of two (parallel) queues with exponential service time distributions (possibly with different means), without knowing the congestion state in one of the queues. However, the (conditional) probability distribution of the state of the unobservable queue can be computed by the router. We derive the joint probability distribution of the congestion states in both queues as a function of the routing policy. This allows us to identify optimal routing schemes for two types of frameworks: global optimization, in which the weighted sum of average queue lengths is minimized, and individual optimization, in which the goal is to minimize the expected delay of individual jobs.     

On the Mixture Proportional Mean Residual Life Model

In this article, we propose a new mixture model induced by the model of proportional mean residual life. Under some appropriate assumptions, it is shown that the mixing and overall variables in the model admit the positive likelihood ratio dependence structure. To see how the overall variable is affected by the stochastic variation of the mixing variable, we study some stochastic comparisons using these variables. Finally, some useful bounds for tail probability of the overall variable for large values of the mixing variable are derived.     

超凸空间上Nash平衡点的存在性定理

通过引入强道路转移下半连续的概念,得到了超凸空间中一个新的鞍点定理和Nash平衡点的存在性定理．