利益集团博弈与决策均衡点的形成

目前,我国存在着不同的利益集团,在国家决策过程中,进行着激烈博弈。文章首先分析利益集团的形成背景及其划分;其次,提出了利益集团博弈中决策均衡点的形成依据;最后,提出了决策均衡点的实现机制。     

关于农村客运税费减免的纳什均衡动态分析

在交通管理部门进行农村客运税费减免的过程中,各种税费及其相关因素之间存在博弈关系。在此关系上,建立目标数学模型,采用变异系数法确定有关计算参数,用动态规划法对模型求解,最后通过实际计算结果与专家决策法结论进行对比,验证了税费减免方法的可行性及准确性。     

A Game Theory Approach for Assessment of Risk and Deployment of Police Patrols in Response to Criminal Activity in San Francisco

An efficient police patrol schedule must ensure the allocation of an appropriate number of officers sufficient to respond to the danger of criminal incidents, particularly in an urban environment, even when the available number of personnel is limited. This study proposes a framework that incorporates two game theory models designed for the allocation of police officers to patrol shifts. In the first step, the interactions of three factors between the criminal and the operation captain are modeled as a zero-sum, noncooperative game, after which a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium method is used to derive the risk value for each district to be patrolled. In the second step, the risk values are used to compute the Shapley value for all 10 districts, for three different threat levels. A fair allocation of police personnel based on the Shapley value is made with a minimum set of personnel deployment costs. The efficacy of the proposed method is verified using openly available data from the San Francisco City Police detailing incidents from the year 2016. The experimental results show that police planners can use this framework to quantitatively evaluate the criminal threat in each district when deciding upon the deployment of patrol officers for three shifts per day.     

以亚洲均势为例试析均势博弈中的媒体

在国际政治秩序新格局的形成中，媒体作用重大影响深广。这在当今亚洲均势博弈中尤为突出。媒体在这种均势博弈中，既起着“晴雨表”的作用，又是各方博弈的手段，同时还是博弈的内容之一。因此，我国媒体要充分认识到自己肩负的重任，在塑造中国国家形象的过程中积极参与。发出自己的声音，为维持亚洲均势作出更大贡献。     

林农合作组织的合作联盟博弈分析

运用博弈论研究林业经济合作组织主体之间的合作问题,通过建立一个合作联盟的博弈模型,分析了林农和合作组织的纳什均衡策略及均衡结果。在此基础上,进一步分析了合作组织达到稳定的规模情况,最后使用案例对博弈模型进行了验证。研究结果表明:如果加入该组织后获得的收益不少于保留收益,林农就会有加入组织的意愿;如果新的林农加入合作组织后能够为原合作组织带来收益增长的空间,合作组织就会制定合理的分配份额激励林农加入。一个地区是否出现林农加入合作组织的行为以及合作组织达到稳定的最大规模与该地区的规模效益函数、组织成本函数、外部性函数和组织的分配规则情况有关。     

应试教育与“囚徒困境”

运用博弈论的原理,对应试教育的实质作剖析,探究导致这一现象的根源。在实践和观察的基础上,引入赋予明确意义的字母并构造博弈矩阵,用定量分析的方法,深刻地揭示了现象背后的深层次原因。     

可置信威胁与制度安排

博弈理论认为,博弈参与人在谋求自身利益最大化的过程中,会产生个体理性与集体理性矛盾的纳什均衡,导致个体理性难以实现,可借助可置信威胁对其加以改变。上述结论也适用于市场经济条件下的经济主体,因此,需要政府通过承诺行动,作出可置信威胁的制度安排,以保证个体理性与集体理性的统一,使个体理性最终得以实现。     

Illegal immigration booms and welfare in the host country

We assess the effects of an important influx of illegal immigration on production and welfare, applied to the Spanish economy during the nineties, through a calibrated general equilibrium model. Immigrants are perfect substitutes of unskilled native workers, according to their productivity, but they are unevenly rewarded. In a first simulation we analyse the effects of an exogenous increase of illegal workers equal to the estimates for the period. In another simulation an equivalent expansion in unskilled legal immigrants is then considered. Finally, a comparison of both simulations provides the scenario of illegal immigrants being legalised. The outcome suggests that the amount of remittances and the role of labour market mechanisms (e.g. trade unions) play an important role in overall results.     

考试监考的博弈分析

针对高校考试中学生舞弊现象较常见这一问题,建立了监考博弈模型,该博弈不存在纯战略纳什均衡,只存在混合战略纳什均衡。分析表明,学校严格执行监考制度是非常必要的。同时指出,必须在全社会进行诚信建设以扼制考试舞弊之风。     

用二项式分布解析理想气体平衡态

本文从随机理论中的二项式分布出发,定量的分析了孤立系统中理想气体的最可几分布———理想气体的热平衡态,同时给出偏差与相对偏差。