Probabilistic Risk Analyses: NRC Programs and Perspectives

The historical basis and more recent activities and products of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) in the Atomic Energy Commission and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are reviewed. Current NRC program activities and objectives are described. The author's opinions on the best uses of PRA are presented.     

中外合资企业跨文化管理的"钻石结构"模型研究--大亚湾核电跨文化管理的探索

本文在继承传统跨文化管理--从国家文化角度分析管理问题的基础上,重点从微观层面出发建立了一个跨文化管理的"钻石结构"模型,并运用这个结构模型来具体分析了大亚湾核电跨文化管理的实践活动,并对大亚湾核电跨文化管理的主要措施进行了探讨,希望这些结论能够对未来中外合资合作企业进行跨文化管理提供有益的参考和借鉴作用.     

《核电档案分类准则及编码规则》的修订建议

《核电档案分类准则及编码规则》的实施解决了国内核电企业档案分类与编码的行业标准有与无的问题,固化了国内核电企业档案管理对文件分类与编码成果的继承要求,拓展了国内核电企业档案分类与编码的实践空间.面对核电行业信息化及职能管理变化趋势,后续修订需进一步体现档案类目设置的扁平化,强化二级综合类的设置,保证职能分类的一致性,容纳文件编码与档案编码的同一性做法。     

中美“零核”概念评析

中美两国先后于1963年和2009年宣布了各自的零核倡议。从中美两国核政策的特点、成因及影响等方面对两国的零核概念进行评析,可以得知,中美两国的零核概念在最终目标和部分实现手段上具有相同之处。这证明了中国零核概念的生存性与前瞻性,也为两国在无核运动中的合作提供了前提。两者概念中的差异并不是造成影响力差别的主要原因,中国有必要加强在世界无核运动话语体系中的工作力度。     

Media,fear, and nuclear energy: A case study

Although electricity generation technologies and safety have improved gradually over time, nuclear power, including generation facilities and waste repositories, are seemingly stigmatized in American culture. Contemporary literature has considered the impact of widely broadcasting nuclear accidents and how media coverage might alter public risk perceptions and in turn, U.S. nuclear policy. This paper discusses the vacillation of public support in recent decades and its ties to both media and scientific reporting. The analysis identifies how media coverage of accidents at Chernobyl, Three-Mile Island, and Fukushima overwhelmed scientific claims of safety and security in nuclear energy production. Additionally, the discussion considers how to bridge the information gap between scientists, citizens, and policymakers through increased knowledge dissemination. Finally, the implications of improved scientific communication in democratic policymaking processes are discussed.     

48家三类核电上市公司社会责任会计信息披露分析

文章选取了2009—2011年48家核电上市公司作为研究样本,主要从经济责任、人力资源责任、生态责任、社会福利责任、国际核安全责任以及产品服务责任六个方面,对其三年的社会责任会计信息披露情况进行分析,探讨样本公司信息披露中所存在的缺陷,并提出相应的改进建议。     

Characterizing performance in socio-technical systems: A modeling framework in the domain of nuclear power

In modeling complex socio-technical systems, the critical nature of many interactions between human and automation are often unrecognized until the system experiences catastrophic consequences. One reason for this is that the systems are generally very robust and serious problems are rare. Another reason is the difficulty in modeling the variety of interactions in a manner compatible with analytical and/or computational models of the technological components of the system. Organizational issues and extraneous influences add to these modeling difficulties. We have developed a modeling framework that integrates certain ideas from social networks, graph theory, and simulation, all tied together using heuristics that reflect deep domain knowledge. This framework forms the basis for a computational implementation, portions of which have been implemented. Details of the model and the rationale for the model structure are described in this paper.     

六方会谈：决策树模型视角下的“猎鹿困境”

朝核问题是国际核不扩散体系中最令人关切的核心问题之一。朝核问题的症结在于怎样解读和执行朝鲜半岛无核化,在于美国的军事存在及敌视政策与朝鲜安全诉求的负相关性,在于现存国际法致使捍卫国家安全的正当性和维护国际安全的法理性二者相悖,而消弭这一悖论的纳什均衡点难以寻求。作者以决策树模型和猎鹿博弈理论,论证了解决朝核问题的机制——六方会谈的实质是购买朝鲜弃核。本文认为,该机制本身孕育了致使其难以成功的困境,并进而得出朝鲜难以在现存国际体系下和平弃核,以朝鲜半岛中立化机制内化掉朝核问题未尝不是最佳出路。     

Political Opportunity and Nested Institutions

Scholars use the concept of 'political opportunity structure' to explain how the political context affects the differential development and influence of ostensibly similar movements. Although the concept promises to become an important analytical tool for comparative studies, to date it is underspecified and undertheorized. It also faces new challenges in this era of increased transnational activism and more extensive scholarly recognition of activist ties across borders. In this paper I argue that assessing opportunity by looking exclusively at national political structures neglects the important role that international factors, such as alliances and transnational movements, play in constraining both states and their challengers. I begin by reviewing the literature on opportunity and drawing a synthesis between it and the literature on domestic influences of international politics. I argue that political institutions are nested in a larger international context, and that the tightness or looseness of that nesting affects the range of possible alliances and policy options available within states. I examine this framework by looking at New Zealand's decision in 1984 to prohibit port visits by nuclear-powered ships or ships that might be carrying nuclear weapons. I conclude by calling for more research that recognizes the interplay of national opportunities and international structures.     

《关于在外层空间使用核动力源的原则》之再思考

《关于在外层空间使用核动力源的原则》被通过已经20年,尽管该原则仅属于联合国决议的范畴,其法律上的约束力不及国际公约,但由于该原则所涉及的内容不仅关乎一般意义上的核安全应用,更关系到整个外层空间探索与开发的有序和健康,随着空间事业的发展,其地位和作用愈发重要,尤其是随着国际社会有关核安全机制的建设日益深入,作为该领域一个基础性规范文件的重要性不言而喻,在20年沉淀和经验的基础上重新审视该原则的背景、文本内容,并在此基础上,对其可能的发展趋势做出有效的分析和认定,无论在理论上还是在实践中都富有重要的意义和价值。同时,可以为中国未来空间核利用以及核安全机制的建立,提供理论上的铺垫与准备。