美以武力解决伊核问题的合法性与可行性

发展核武器虽符合伊朗致力于成为地区大国的战略逻辑,但受到国际国内压力,伊朗未必能够突破红线,军事打击伊朗难以具备足够的合情理性和合法性。伊朗核设施具有数量多、防攻击能力强等特点,其核能力趋于成熟,其民族国家建构亦比较成功,无论是定点清除,还是全面战争,均难以达到彻底解决伊核问题的目标。军事打击还可能导致石油市场崩溃和全球经济危机,并将遭到中俄等国家的强烈反对,美以不得不有所顾忌。尽管战争的可能性始终不能排除,但遏制伊朗以及提供延伸威慑已逐渐成为美国对伊政策的重点,美伊关系有可能陷入长期低烈度但可控的冲突。     

Secrecy,publicity, and the bomb: Nuclear publics and objects of the Nevada Test Site, 1951–1992

This article provides an account of the nuclear test series carried out at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). We examine how practices of security produce publics and make particular forms of embodiment possible. This account focuses on three key moments to shift the debate on national security projects from audience to public by bringing intra-action and embodiment into the frame. First, we show how atomic testing operated on the terrain of public culture as much as physical territory. Second, we demonstrate how the materiality of the bomb, and its consequences for those who witnessed detonations, reveals the relation between publicity and secrecy as strategies for managing information about security projects. Finally, drawing on Barad's Agential Realism, we use the dosimetry film badge as a device through which to read the relationship between the atomic bomb and its nuclear publics.     

论“大规模杀伤性武器”与中东地区安全

本文通过对大规模杀伤性武器的概念及其政治意涵的考察,关注中东地区的军备竞赛,分析了利比亚、以色列、埃及、叙利亚和伊朗等国的核计划和核政策,以及外部大国对中东地区核扩散的基本立场,指出在当前局势下中东地区无核区的提出和建设,不能从本质上改变该地区日趋恶化的安全形势。公正解决历史遗留问题和地区冲突,真正实现阿以和解,在有关国家间确立相互信任,才是解决问题的关键所在。     

Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review

A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties.     

奥巴马政府的核政策与朝核问题

第二届首尔核安全峰会的召开,激起国际社会对朝核问题的关注。作为重要的国际核安全问题,朝鲜核问题在美国新的核安全政策中处于何种地位,奥巴马政府将如何处理朝核问题成为国际社会关注热点。本文旨在探讨朝核问题自身的特殊性,分析奥巴马政府核安全政策的本质与内在矛盾,进而揭示美国新的核安全政策仍旧很难解决其在朝核问题上面临的困境。     

秦山核电基地自主创新战略研究

自主发展核电是一个国家综合实力的体现。秦山核电基地通过一期工程、二期工程和三期工程的建成投产走出了一条自主开发核电之路,这对于我国核电立足于自主创新,发展民族核电产业具有重要意义。文章在对秦山核电基地现状分析的基础上,从原始创新、集成创新和引进消化吸收再创新三个维度总结了秦山核电基地自主创新战略的实施和成功经验,为进一步推动我国核电国产化进程提供参考。     

伊朗与海合会成员国关系研究

伊朗与阿拉伯海湾合作委员会成员国是隔海相望的近邻，但地理位置的接近并未使双方成为好邻居、好伙伴，反而加重了海合会成员国对伊朗扩张野心的担忧。伊拉克战争后，原本由伊拉克和海合会联手制衡伊朗的“三角关系”被破坏，海湾局势随着伊朗的“被崛起”以及伊朗核问题的演变而面临深刻的变化。本文试图从伊朗的扩张意图和海合会成员国的担忧、海合会成员国遏制伊朗的战略以及目前双方较量的关键问题等方面，分析伊朗与海合会成员国之间的关系，并探讨这一关系的未来走向。     

美国与朝鲜核问题的历史分析

冷战后,在国际关系中意识形态因素逐渐让位于地缘政治因素,在不放弃对朝鲜遏制的同时,美国采用了有限的接触政策,诱使朝鲜放弃核计划,开始重点防范那些对其抱有敌意并拥有潜在的大规模杀伤性武器的国家.十多年来,美国政府以武力相威胁的同时与相关国家进行单方面的合作,或直接与朝鲜谈判,但由于美朝固有矛盾从未消除,均没有达到美国预期的目标,凸现单边合作机制的局限.针对当前朝核问题采取多边合作机制是解决危机的最佳途径.     

Insights into the Societal Risk of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

The elements of societal risk from a nuclear power plant accident are clearly illustrated by the Fukushima accident: land contamination, long‐term relocation of large numbers of people, loss of productive farm area, loss of industrial production, and significant loss of electric capacity. NUREG‐1150 and other studies have provided compelling evidence that the individual health risk of nuclear power plant accidents is effectively negligible relative to other comparable risks, even for people living in close proximity to a plant. The objective of this study is to compare the societal risk of nuclear power plant accidents to that of other events to which the public is exposed. We have characterized the monetized societal risk in the United States from major societally disruptive events, such as hurricanes, in the form of a complementary cumulative distribution function. These risks are compared with nuclear power plant risks, based on NUREG‐1150 analyses and new MACCS code calculations to account for differences in source terms determined in the more recent SOARCA study. A candidate quantitative societal objective is discussed for potential adoption by the NRC. The results are also interpreted with regard to the acceptability of nuclear power as a major source of future energy supply.     

An analysis of safety culture attitudes in a highly regulated environment

Culture is a complex construct in organizations, consisting of attitudes, perceptions, values and beliefs, which must necessarily be set in context. Many authors imply that culture is organization-wide and common to all employees. In terms of safety culture, the organizational context may determine its salience and likelihood of affecting behaviour, especially in a highly regulated environment such as the nuclear industry. This study investigates the components of safety culture and how it varies in a highly-regulated nuclear power plant. A 60-item questionnaire measuring safety attitudes and values was administered anonymously to 1550 employees at two plants in the UK nuclear industry, with a 64.7% mean response rate. Principal components analyses revealed six factors conceptually common to shop floor and management (supervisor/manager/professional) groups for both plants, relating to: management style and communication; responsibility and commitment; risk-taking; job satisfaction; complacency; and risk awareness. A canonical discriminant analysis of the items suggested that the data could distinguish three employee groups. The implications of these findings and the proposal that there are two or more safety cultures in the organization is discussed.