大数据背景下的政府信息资源整合与利用

长期以来,由于职能部门的直线管理体制与数据规范标准不统一,我国各级政府在信息资源整合和利用方面存在着缺乏长效机制和统筹管理、信息资源开发价值不高以及社会化服务无法满足市场需要等突出问题。以大数据为代表的新一代信息技术为解决这些问题提供了新的技术选择和发展思路。各级政府应在完善信息资源管理体制与安全保障体系的同时,建立统一的基于大数据的政府信息资源整合应用平台,实现各类信息资源的交换整合与共享,并结合各类应用构建政府信息资源开发利用模式,从而不断地推进政府信息资源的高效整合与合理利用。     

长三角城乡一体化发展对策研究

长三角地区作为我国沿海经济发达地区,虽具有较高的城镇化水平,但城乡发展梯度差异明显,城乡一体化水平仍有待提高。当前,把握好新型城镇化发展的机遇,推动城乡一体化,关键是推进农村发展、协调城乡发展。由于长三角地区工业化与城镇化的快速发展,使城乡一体化发展具有更好的经济社会条件,应当从促进城乡居民公共服务均等化,优化产业布局、促进产业结构转型升级,建立惠及城乡的养老和医疗保险体系入手,推进该地区城乡一体化的协调发展。     

区域经济一体化与国际法上国家主权

区域经济一体化是当今国际经济关系中一股不可抗拒的潮流。它的形成与发展促进了世界经济与贸易的迅速增长,也对国际法上国家主权提出了挑战。区域经济一体化一方面使国家主权的行使受到某些方面的限制,另一方面又为国家主权向外延伸提供了条件和空间,因此,区域经济一体化并没有改变国家的最后决定权,仅仅是使国家主权的行使方式发生了变化。区域经济一体化的过程实际上是将分散、个体的国家主权组合和提升为统一、集体的主权的过程,是国家通过限制暂时、局部的权利,获得长远、全局利益的过程。     

农业信息采集与发布技术集成策略研究

本文在讨论农业信息技术集成问题的基础上,分析了农业信息技术集成的条件和农业信息采集与发布技术集成的动因,着重设计了农业信息采集和发布技术集成策略。     

How much reliable are the integrated ‘live’ data? A validation strategy proposal for the non-parametric micro statistical matching

The integration of different data sources is a widely discussed topic among both the researchers and the Official Statistics. Integrating data helps to contain costs and time required by new data collections. The non-parametric micro Statistical Matching (SM) allows to integrate ‘live’ data resorting only to the observed information, potentially avoiding the misspecification bias and speeding the computational effort. Despite these pros, the assessment of the integration goodness when we use this method is not robust. Moreover, several applications comply with some commonly accepted practices which recommend e.g. to use the biggest data set as donor. We propose a validation strategy to assess the integration goodness. We apply it to investigate these practices and to explore how different combinations of the SM techniques and distance functions perform in terms of the reliability of the synthetic (complete) data set generated. The validation strategy takes advantage of the relation existing among the variables pre-and-post the integration. The results show that ‘the biggest, the best’ rule must not be considered mandatory anymore. Indeed, the integration goodness increases in relation to the variability of the matching variables rather than with respect to the dimensionality ratio between the recipient and the donor data set.     

在新的历史机遇下推进长三角地区经济社会持续、全面发展

2010年5月24日,国务院正式批准实施<长江三角洲地区区域规划>,这是长三角地区新一轮大发展的重要契机.长三角地区通过政府强力推动和有效协调,发挥市场的资源配置基础性作用,发展创新型经济,推动产业结构升级,转变经济发展方式,走城乡一体化发展道路,率先实现全面小康社会,率先基本实现现代化,尽快成为具有较强国际竞争力的世界级城市群.     

长三角地区经济一体化的经济增长效应

从长三角地区两省一市真实人均GDP增长率的角度,实证检验了地区经济一体化对地区经济增长的影响.实证研究表明,以时间变量衡量的地区一体化在一般意义上能够提高真实人均GDP增长率,其变化轨迹遵循先下降后上升趋势,与长三角地区一体化的现实观察基本吻合.通过考察个体-时刻固定效应模型避免了事件虚拟变量间接衡量一体化的模型设定问题,结果表明以地区贸易、人口流动、服务业发展和政府对经济的参与四个方面衡量的地区一体化,虽然个别变量存在选择偏误和代表性问题,但在总体效应上与促进经济增长的理论预测相一致.     

Cointegration in Fractional Systems with Unknown Integration Orders

Cointegrated bivariate nonstationary time series are considered in a fractional context, without allowance for deterministic trends. Both the observable series and the cointegrating error can be fractional processes. The familiar situation in which the respective integration orders are 1 and 0 is nested, but these values have typically been assumed known. We allow one or more of them to be unknown real values, in which case Robinson and Marinucci (2001, 2003) have justified least squares estimates of the cointegrating vector, as well as narrow‐band frequency‐domain estimates, which may be less biased. While consistent, these estimates do not always have optimal convergence rates, and they have nonstandard limit distributional behavior. We consider estimates formulated in the frequency domain, that consequently allow for a wide variety of (parametric) autocorrelation in the short memory input series, as well as time‐domain estimates based on autoregressive transformation. Both can be interpreted as approximating generalized least squares and Gaussian maximum likelihood estimates. The estimates share the same limiting distribution, having mixed normal asymptotics (yielding Wald test statistics with χ² null limit distributions), irrespective of whether the integration orders are known or unknown, subject in the latter case to their estimation with adequate rates of convergence. The parameters describing the short memory stationary input series are √n‐consistently estimable, but the assumptions imposed on these series are much more general than ones of autoregressive moving average type. A Monte Carlo study of finite‐sample performance is included.     

Statistical data integration using multilevel models to predict employee compensation

This article considers the case where two surveys collect data on a common variable, with one survey being much smaller than the other. The smaller survey collects data on an additional variable of interest, related to the common variable collected in the two surveys, and out-of-scope with respect to the larger survey. Estimation of the two related variables is of interest at domains defined at a granular level. We propose a multilevel model for integrating data from the two surveys, by reconciling survey estimates available for the common variable, accounting for the relationship between the two variables, and expanding estimation for the other variable, for all the domains of interest. The model is specified as a hierarchical Bayes model for domain-level survey data, and posterior distributions are constructed for the two variables of interest. A synthetic estimation approach is considered as an alternative to the hierarchical modelling approach. The methodology is applied to wage and benefits estimation using data from the National Compensation Survey and the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, United States.     

叙事有序如何可能——何心隐道统叙事的先验法则

在对儒家正统思想脉络的道统叙事中,“数”确保叙事有序,它内在于“事”的展开变化,也显现于承祧道统的次第。明代泰州学派学者何心隐的道统叙事吸收南宋理学大儒蔡沈的范数易学,“数”是人的在世体验进入叙事所遵循的先验形式法则,也是哲学意义上对一切演变的量化表达图式。“数”分“奇”“偶”：《周易》象偶,以“二”为进阶表示稳定性和对立转化,在对立稳定中蕴含隐蔽的关联;《洪范》数奇,代表变化的绝对性和渐进性,故而连续不断的变化以“三”为进阶。叙事之所以有序,依赖于“数”在奇偶交错阵列中推进,其中太极数“九”、皇极数“五”象喻连贯叙事的价值极点或转捩点。“数”中包孕“史”或“事”渐变发展之理,契合“经”中之理“仁”,是明代经史合一的重要中介范畴。