光伏扶贫项目可行性评估方法及其应用

光伏扶贫工程是促进贫困户收入增加、贫困村集体破零、实现精准扶贫的重要途径之一。基于"精准扶贫"的总体背景,结合光伏发电特色,从实行依据、建设条件和贫困地区现有条件等3个方面定义光伏扶贫的可行性指标,建立光伏扶贫项目可行性分析指标体系。以山西省国家扶贫开发重点县F县为算例进行光伏扶贫项目可行性评估,结果显示:F县光伏扶贫可行性指数K为0.735。在该地建设光伏扶贫项目可行,但优势并不明显。需进一步建立合理的建设模式和收入分配方式,确保光伏扶贫工程取得实效。     

中国农村扶贫政策的减贫效应及其评价

围绕我国“农村扶贫政策在何种程度上减缓贫困”的争论性议题,从2950篇相关研究中筛选出159篇实证研究样本文献,提取531个效应值,运用Meta Analysis系统评价了改革开放以来我国财政扶贫的减贫效应及其结构和路径。采取FAT-PET-PEESE策略的计量结果显示:扶贫政策对农民收入增长和降低贫困发生率总体上具有正向作用,其中,增收效应接近中等程度,降低贫困发生率的作用则相对较弱;从结构上看,减贫力度从高到低依次为产业扶贫、教育扶贫、搬迁扶贫、社保扶贫和生态扶贫。此外,贫困人口的行为能力差异被证明是减贫效应的可能作用路径。新时期扶贫政策应保持基本的连续性,政策实施应以强化农民反贫困能力建设为核心,探索建立相对贫困治理的长效机制。     

脱贫人口返贫风险监测：机制设置、维度聚焦与实现路径

加强脱贫人口返贫风险监测是后脱贫时代农村贫困治理的必然要求。遵循脱贫人口返贫问题事前治理逻辑,基于对返贫风险生发运演机理的理性揭示和科学预判,把内生脱贫动力、生计资源禀赋、外部灾害冲击和社会负面影响作为脱贫人口返贫生发的主要监测维度,且诸维度之间相互作用、相辅相成。返贫风险监测机制基于四大维度的监测预警能力越强,则越有利于及时化解返贫风险、阻断返贫。当前脱贫人口返贫风险监测机制建设面临监测制度不完善、监测主体配合机械式、监测技术体系不健全、风险信息管理碎片化和监测工作考核监督不完善等不利因素,迫切需要完善风险监测制度,布控筑牢脱贫人口返贫防线;明确风险监测职责,推动多元主体共同参与;强化监测技术体系支撑,打造返贫信息共享平台;创新信息管理机制,构建协同治理良好格局;共同推动后脱贫时代脱贫人口返贫风险监测机制的逐步形成、持续巩固和长效发力。     

由点及面:脱贫攻坚转向乡村振兴的战略思考

确保乡村振兴无缝链接脱贫攻坚,已经成为全社会和学术界关注的焦点问题。着眼整体治理视角可知,脱贫攻坚转向乡村振兴呈现出了"由点及面"的特征,包括治理对象扩大化、治理任务丰富化、治理场域拓展化、治理资源全面化和治理思维合作化等内容。当然,从脱贫攻坚到乡村振兴依然有着较多治理任务延续,如产业振兴立足扶贫产业发展、振兴主体队伍吸纳扶贫人才、文化振兴承袭扶贫扶智工作、组织振兴借鉴扶贫行动架构以及振兴机制传承扶贫治理经验。同时,为了开展更高质量的乡村振兴工作,也要推进较多的治理升级,既要依托乡村振兴发展消解相对贫困,借助多元主体合作改变治理思维,也要积极尝试乡村振兴区域合作模式,并系统构建完整的乡村振兴制度体系。     

性别视角下的农村丧偶独居老人生存状态研究——以吉林省东丰县某村为例

通过对吉林省东丰县横道村99例老人的问卷调查以及7例丧偶独居老人的个案访谈,从性别角度对农村丧偶独居老人的生存状态进行了分析,研究发现：老年女性的贫困化程度较男性高、生活适应性更差,老年男性的心理适应性较差。据此提出了应从政策、社团组织等四个方面改善农村独居老人生存状态的建议。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

Individual and institutional determinants of multidimensional poverty: A European comparison

In this article we evaluate to what extent between-country differences in the probability of being ‘multidimensional’ poor can be explained by a range of ‘domain-specific’ indicators of welfare regime arrangements. To this end, a so-called micro-macro model is estimated, testing the ‘independent’ effect of institutions, as opposed to alternative explanations such as between-country differences in population composition and economic affluence. Although we conclude that institutional arrangements do influence the risk of multidimensional poverty in the expected direction, we also find that bringing the ‘economy’ back into the analyses has a non-trivial impact. Our results point at several avenues for further discussion and research. First, although the more elaborate welfare regimes generally do a better job in preventing poverty, the level of transfers is not always ‘proportional’ to the general standard of living in these countries. Second, we only find partial confirmation for the often cited ‘negative’ impact of labour market flexibility and the related equality-jobs trade-off. While stricter employment regulations do reduce the poverty risk (be it only after controlling for economic affluence), flexibility in terms of the availability of fixed-term labour seems to be preferable to unemployment, even if at the individual level, labour market flexibility increases the likelihood of being poor quite severely.

Measuring the extent, depth, and severity of food insecurity: an application to American Indians in the USA

Within the extensive food insecurity literature, little work has been done regarding (a) the depth and severity of food insecurity and (b) the food insecurity of American Indians. This paper addresses both these topics with data from the 2001 to 2004 Core Food Security Module of the Current Population Survey. To measure food insecurity, three axiomatically derived measures of food insecurity are used. As expected, given the worse economic conditions facing American Indians, their food insecurity levels are generally higher than non-American Indians. However, the magnitude and significance of these differences differ depending on the choice of food insecurity measure.

The re-aestheticisation of poverty: blogging hunger in the age of austerity

This paper examines the re-aestheticisation of hunger and poverty with the emergence of austerity blogs. These blogs, which chronicle personal narratives while re-directing gaze in creating food through limited budgets and in sharing the intimate brutalities of hunger, bring a renewed focus and interest to poverty through daily lived experiences of hunger. Beyond personalising hunger in a climate of austerity, blogs as a symbol of articulation of the laypeople for the general public become interstitial spaces between government rhetoric and media representations, making poverty an intimate, personal and present proposition. Blogs as peoples’ archives of social history are hybrid spaces of personal iterations amenable to public consumption and media scrutiny. In the process these can re-mediate and disrupt the social reality of first-world hunger, inviting a gaze through first-hand narratives. Poverty becomes a contested entity online where blogs perform both resistance and reiteration of the neo-liberal stereotypes about the unemployed and those on benefits.     

新农合对四川藏区的减贫效应分析

The New Rural Cooperative Medi-cal System ( hereafter NRCMS) in Tibetan areas of Sichuan was started in Wenchuan in 2005 , and by 2008 covered all of the province’s Tibetan areas. This paper studies the effects of the NRCMS on im-proving the health of and alleviating poverty for farmers and herdsmen in Tibetan area of Sichuan. Most parts of the Tibetan areas of Sichuan are located in high altitude districts. Thirty two coun-ties of these areas are classified as “National Pov-erty Counties”. Poverty and disease go hand in hand in these regions. Kashin-Beck disease and hydatid disease are the major endemics in the pas-toral and agro-pastoral areas of Sichuan. Endemic, infectious and chronic diseases are widespread in Sichuan’s Tibetan areas. More than 70% of pa-tients are workers from 20 to 60 years old. Disea-ses are more prevalent in women than in men. Kashin-Beck disease and hydatid disease are cur-rently incurable. Patients suffer from health prob-lems, which leads to a decrease in their income and the heavy burden of medical expenses. The new rural cooperative medical system alleviates the negative effects of farmers’ falling into, or back in-to poverty due to disease. However, the existing medical compensation mechanism is not sufficient to solve the problem. The greatest impact of NRCMS on the farmers and herdsmen in Sichuan’s Tibetan areas is that the system has gradually changed local people’s medi-cal behavior, as well as their underlying ideas a-bout medicine: they begin to believe in hospitals. In particular, more pregnant women are choosing to give birth in hospitals, which reduces the rate of infant mortality and postpartum diseases, and im-proves the health of women. Since the full coverage of the NRCMS in 2008 , the number of people participating in the system has reached the overall average level of Si-chuan province. By analyzing the data before and after the implementation of this system, and meas-uring the impact of the system on people’s health, it can be found that the NRCMS’s role in serving the vulnerable population, such as the elderly and infant children, is more marked. Since the implementation of the NRCMS, all administrative villages in Sichuan Tibetan areas have established village clinics, which solved the problem of a shortage of medicines and doctors in those areas. Farmers and herdsmen have conven-ient access to medical treatment, enhancing the ac-cessibility of medical service. After the implemen-tation of the NRCMS, the health of the elderly population in rural areas has improved. Infant mor-tality rates have dramatically fallen. The implementation of the NRCMS improved the medical service capacity of township hospitals and village clinics. And the NRCMS has brought the township hospitals and village clinics into its scope of compensation, which greatly promotes the utilization of primary medical services in Tibetan areas. The poverty reduction effect of the NRCMS can be analyzed from two aspects:Firstly, the im-
provement in health leads to increased income, be-cause good health can promote labor productivity. Meanwhile, the increase in income will in turn im-prove the overall level of health. Secondly, the in-patient and outpatient compensation rate is raised year by year, which reduces the medical fees of farmers, and prevents them from falling back into poverty.