工业机器人使用与制造业就业：来自中国的证据

本文使用我国2006-2017年制造业分行业数据，实证研究了工业机器人使用对于制造业就业的影响。结果显示，工业机器人使用对制造业行业存在就业效应，其中对岗位数量有显著的负向冲击，工业机器人保有量每上升1%，就业岗位减少约4.6%；对工资水平的影响整体上不明显。在考虑了劳动力市场的动态调节后，工业机器人使用对就业岗位的负面影响仍然存在，并随着“工业4.0”概念的提出有所增强，对工资水平的影响则表现出时间异质性。进一步地，本文尝试使用工具变量解决潜在的内生性问题，结果稳健。最后，文章还探讨了工业机器人就业效应的行业异质性。本文的发现有助于正确认清“机器换人”对我国制造业就业市场的全面影响，并为引导人工智能技术的发展和确保就业稳定提供相应的政策建议。     

Disentangling the effects of organizational controls on innovation

The strategy and innovation literatures argue that organizational competitiveness is contingent upon firms simultaneously pursuing both process and product innovations. A firm’s control system plays a fundamental role in this regard by managing, motivating, and coordinating employees’ behaviors for the development of its innovative capabilities. Research suggests that in order to develop successful innovation, management must use controls that align employees’ interests with those of the organization while simultaneously allowing employee autonomy to encourage creativity. These disparate functions lead to the control–autonomy dilemma. We argue that managers can address this dilemma by recognizing that the effect of controls on innovation outcomes depends, in part, on the controls’ enabling features and the type of commitment they inspire. Our findings show that employee development, which is the focus of input controls, has a direct effect on process innovation-related behaviors while specified goals, the emphasis of output controls, have a direct effect on product innovation-related behaviors. It is only through employees’ perceptions of managerial support that input controls increase product innovation-related behaviors and output controls increase process innovation-related behaviors.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Approximate theory of multiway block designs

Optimality properties of multiway block designs are deduced from the general results of J. Kiefer's approximate-design theory. In the model with additive effects these optimality properties solely depend on the two-dimensional marginals of the designs. Uniform designs, and designs whose two-dimensional marginals are products of the one-dimensional marginals, are shown to be optimal. Approximate Youden designs are introduced for the case when the support sets of the two-dimensional marginals are prescribed in advance. They are optimal in a relatively small class of competing designs only.     

产品召回供应链中线性保险合约与订货决策

考虑一个由单供应商和单制造商组成的二级供应链,在不确定市场需求情形下考虑产品召回,站在制造商角度研究供应链线性保险合约下的最优订货决策以及最优线性保险合约决策。研究表明,最优的订货决策与产品召回概率以及线性保险系数相关,存在唯一的最优订货量来最大化制造商的利润。对于密度函数倒数的导数较大的一般需求分布函数,最优的线性保险系数与线性保险合约的固定费用以及产品召回概率有关。当产品召回概率和线性保险合约的固定费用均较小时或者产品召回概率较大但线性保险合约的固定费用适中时,制造商通过选择线性保险合约可以改善自己的利润。     

碳税制度下企业产品升级及信息披露策略研究

在实行碳税制度的背景下,本文构建了包含两家制造商的双寡头模型,以其中一家制造商是否投资产品升级减排作为关键信息,分别研究信息不公开(模型1)和信息公开(模型2)时两家制造商的均衡定价与最优利润以及制造商产品升级的条件,并且进一步研究当制造商同时掌握技术决策权和信息披露权时选择四种不同决策方案的条件。理论结果表明,如果升级后单位实际生产成本变大,制造商选择不升级且不公开;如果升级后单位实际成本变小,当升级后利润增值大于固定成本投入时,制造商选择升级并不公开,反之,选择不升级并公开。无论升级前后单位实际成本大小关系如何,制造商都不会选择升级且公开信息。数值试验部分表明,当制造商同时掌握技术选择权和信息披露权时,碳税是驱动制造商进行升级减排的主要因素,随着碳税的提高,制造商会依次从不升级不公开,不升级公开到升级不公开做决策。当不升级的概率越大时,制造商会在较低的碳税点越早开始升级;当减排努力越大时,制造商会在较高的碳税点才开始升级。     

Public relations functions: Perspective from a Japanese corporation

This paper examines public relations (PR) functions in a large Japanese corporation as well as the PR role in the management function. The corporation under study is Kao Corporation, which is one of the largest Japanese consumer and industrial goods manufacturers. Information was collected from interviewing a PR manager of Kao Corporation. Evidence suggests that Kao's PR department functions more or less like an advertising department. Press releases are placed in the media as paid advertisements. Kao's PR uses a third-party endorsement to establish a new product's credibility. The company has a participative corporate culture that allows the PR director to work closely with the top management. The idea of collaborative efforts between departments and the practice of being a socially responsible company suggest that Kao's PR department uses a combination of communication models and Japanese management styles to project a good corporate citizen image.     

Linking product modularity to supply chain integration and flexibility

Abstract

This study builds a moderated mediation model to empirically investigate the impacts of product modularity and supply chain integration (i.e. supplier, customer, and internal integration) on the flexibility and moderating effects of the product life cycle (i.e. growth and maturity stages) on the relationships using data collected from 204 Chinese manufacturers. The findings reveal that both supplier integration and internal integration mediate the relationship between product modularity and flexibility. Moreover, the indirect effect of product modularity on flexibility through supplier integration is stronger during the growth stage than during the maturity stage. There is no difference in the indirect effect of product modularity on flexibility through internal integration, which is significant in both the growth and maturity stages. In addition, the impact of product modularity on customer integration is significantly stronger, whereas that of customer integration on flexibility is significantly weaker during the growth stage than during the maturity stage.     

Multiproduct cost-volume-profit model with product limits

A multiproduct cost-volume-profit model is extended to incorporate sales or product capacity limits for each product, required rate of return on sales, and the tax rate depending on profit levels as determined by the government. The model also deals with overhead costs that are traceable to a group of products but which cannot be allocated to individual products within the group to any reasonable accuracy. To solve the model, an algorithm is constructed to determine the required volume for each product that will achieve the best possible rate of return on sales revenue. Based upon the dBase Database Management System and the CVP model, a user-friendly menu-driven interactive decision support system is developed. The model algorithm and decision support system is illustrated with an example consisting of five products. Various reports generated by the interactive decision support system are also presented.     

两次国际产业转移本质探讨 ——基于产品生命周期理论视角

 面对今年日益严重的经济衰退，大多数学者主张摒弃现有发展模式，借鉴发达国家发展道路，摆脱困境。本文运用比较分析法，探讨决定这些国家经济发展模式的背景——两次国际产业转移的本质区别，发现产业区域化处于国际产业转移生命周期的成熟阶段，在短期内回归高工资、高资本技术构成、高劳动生产率、高价格和高人均GDP状态，仅仅让发达国家人们享受工业文明的好处，表现为典型的贵族化特点；产业全球化处于标准化阶段，长期性的低工资、低资本技术构成、低劳动生产率、低价格和低人均GDP，让越来越多的发展中国家人们，享受到越来越多的工业文明的实惠，表现为典型的平民化特点。为此中国未来仍然应延续低成本、低工资发展战略，适当产业升级为辅，避免西方产业空心化。