Delay Estimation for Some Stationary Diffusion-type Processes

In this paper the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators of a delay parameter is studied. The observed process is supposed to be the solution of a linear stochastic differential equation with one time delay term. It is shown that these estimators are consistent and their limit distributions are described. The behaviour of the estimators is similar to the behaviour of corresponding estimators in change-point problems. The question of asymptotical efficiency is also discussed.     

R&D project evaluation: An integrated DEA and balanced scorecard approach

We present and demonstrate a multi-criteria approach for evaluating R&D projects in different stages of their life cycle. Our approach integrates the balanced scorecard (BSC) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) and develops an extended DEA model. The input and output measures for the integrated DEA–BSC model are grouped in “cards” which are associated with a “BSC for R&D projects”. The BSC is embedded in the DEA model through a hierarchical structure of constraints that reflect the BSC balance considerations. We illustrate the proposed approach with a case study involving an industrial research laboratory that selects and executes dozens of R&D projects every year.     

重大工程项目风险管理中的综合集成方法

随着我国计划经济体制向市场经济体制的逐步过渡,重大工程项目所面临的风险越来越大,加强对重大工程项目风险管理的理论研究和实际应用就显得非常重要。本文对重大工程项目中风险的特点进行了剖析,提出了以综合集成方法为指导对重大工程项目进行全寿命动态风险管理的观点,并对如何制订和实施项目风险管理计划作了具体分析。     

高阶中立型时滞微分方程的渐近性与振动性

得到了变系数高阶中立型时滞微分方程d^n/d^tn[x(t) p(t)x(t-τ)] ∑i=1^mQi(t)(t-бi)=0的渐近性和n为偶数时解振动的充分性判据。改进和推广了文献^[1-4]中的结果。     

我国新投资体制下政府投资项目管理模式改革的研究

去年7月25日国家颁布了《国务院关于投资体制改革的决定》,其中提出要“加强政府投资项目管理,改进建设实施方式”。本文根据我国这种全新的投资管理体制,在对当前我国政府投资项目管理模式分析的基础上,借鉴国外政府投资项目管理的经验,提出了我国政府投资项目管理模式改革的对策和建议:建立完善的监管机制和法规体系,采用资质评审法选择代建机构等。     

基于多维矩阵项目组织在某国防项目中的应用

按照型号国防项目管理的要求,在某大型国防项目管理实践中项目组织形式组建进行了探讨。本文首先分析当前各种项目管理组织形式特点,在分析本单位实际情况的基础上,针对型号国防项目管理的特殊需求,提出了一种多维矩阵的项目组织,并就该组织机构在运行中出现的一些问题进行了分析,探讨了该种组织形式的优缺点,提出了进一步的改进问题的办法和措施。     

Accountability revisited: the arrival of client outcome evaluation

In the past few years, "accountability" for public mental health programs has become differentiated in the minds of not only program evaluators, but also program managers and funders, including state and local-level legislators. Increasingly, these officials are becoming concerned with more than just the numbers and targets of services delivered, and the cost involved, and are looking for evidence of positive outcome or impact on clients to justify program implementation and maintenance. This represents a significant move beyond the two accountability models that most recently seemed to be the focus of most formal accountability efforts--performance measurement and quality assurance. Pressures for implementing these two alternatives seem to have been reduced somewhat by the new federal Administration, but even prior to its advent there had been a rapid escalation in awareness of and concern for client outcome measurement among important audiences, including state and local mental health policy-makers and the U.S. Congress. This presents a major new opportunity and challenge for program evaluators at this new accountability focus continues to gather momentum.     

延期支付条件下的最优付款时间确定：考虑现金折扣情形

现有延期支付条件下零售商最优付款时间的研究文献均假设,零售商付款时间可以在延期支付期限时点或补货周期之内任一时点,但这一关键假设却并不符合商业惯例,也没有考虑实践中卖方广泛使用现金折扣以刺激买方提前还款的情形。为此,通过对已有模型进行了修正和补充后,给出了零售商在供应商给定延期付款、现金折扣政策下最优付款时间的判定方法。     

The Effects of Learning,Forgetting, and Relearning on Decision Rule Performance in Multiproject Scheduling

Product development occurs in multiproject environments where preemption is often allowed so that critical projects can be addressed immediately. Because product development is characterized by time-based competition, there is pressure to make decisions quickly using heuristics methods that yield fast project completion. Preemption heuristics are needed both to choose activities for preemption and then to determine which resources to use to restart preempted activities. Past research involving preemption has ignored any completion time penalty due to the forgetting experienced by project personnel during preemption and the resulting relearning time required to regain lost proficiency. The purpose of this research is to determine the impact of learning, forgetting, and relearning (LFR) on project completion time when preemption is allowed. We present a model for the LFR cycle in multiproject development environments. We test a number of priority rules for activity scheduling, activity preemption, and resource assignment subsequent to preemption, subject to the existence of the LFR cycle, for which a single type of knowledge worker resource is assigned among multiple projects. The results of the simulation experiments clearly demonstrate that LFR effects are significant. The tests of different scheduling, preemption, and resource reassignment rules show that the choice of rule is crucial in mitigating the completion time penalty effects of the LFR cycle, while maintaining high levels of resource utilization. Specifically, the worst performing rules tested for each performance measure are those that attempt to maintain high resource utilization. The best performing rules are based on activity criticality and resource learning.     

风险时代的社会建设

社会建设的一个基本的功能,是要有效地应付各种社会风险;现代性方案下展开的现代社会工程试图以理性建构的人为秩序来消除不确定性、消除风险,但这种努力却产生了不可控制的意外后果或副作用;这种意外后果或副作用的累积是今日之风险的主要来源;风险社会之风险有三个值得注意的特点,即风险是自反性现代化本身的产物,风险已经全球化,风险的承受和应对主体已经个体化;与这些特点相应,风险时代的社会建设在方略上应该注意以下三个方面:援用并坚持"辅助原则",在坚持个体本位性的基础上重建"社会",激活积极公民权.