The Effectiveness of Risk Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across Industries and Countries

This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi‐industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002–2007 period. Results of this study show that project context—industry and country where a project is executed—significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success.     

Systems innovation manager

Each year organizations spend a significant amount of money developing new products and processes in an effort to satisfy customer demands and manufacture high-quality products efficiently. Both development processes - product and process, are complex, resource intensive and thrive on innovation. They demand a variety of skills and resources, but in particular, participation among all staff in generating ideas, managing projects and implementing change. There are currently a number of software tools and methods that facilitate change in a systems environment. These range from complex modelling tools to information management tools. The tools have been developed around paradigms, e.g. world class manufacturing, total quality management and business process reengineering. They are often complex, requiring the efforts of skilled designers and managers. Current thinking within a systems environment reflects a more participative and less specialist approach to managing innovation and change. There is a need to create compromise between detailed project engineering and good management practice. This paper introduces a new paradigm centred on good management practice, and identifies the critical issues in systems innovation and change. The paradigm is articulated through a series of change levers and a methodology that guides managers and designers. It is supported by a series of software tools that together bring innovation management to life within the industrial organization.     

明代徽州田价发覆

徽州田价是徽商资本流动的风向标。以往研究认为，明代徽州田价呈倒U形增长或直线增长。两种观点都值得商榷，原因是其田价处理存在两类错误：　第一，天启前的徽州田价因忽视田税推割延迟而被高估；第二，忽视了亩的标准不一、亩价数据的高离散度对平均亩价有效性与代表性的影响。在充分考虑田税推割延迟的因素之后，以田价年租比代替亩价指标，通过趋势分析发现：　明代徽州田价既不呈倒U形增长，也不呈直线增长，而呈N形增长。这是徽商资本在嘉靖“严肃海禁”后大量从土地流向盐业、典业，又在万历商业环境恶化后持续回流土地的结果。     

SAW振荡器的相位噪声分析

声表面波振荡器是一种典型的反馈振荡器。根据Ｌｅｅｓｏｎ反馈振荡器相位噪声模型，分析了ＳＡＷ振荡器的相位噪声特点，特别是不同的ＳＡＷ反馈元件，分析结果表明不同的ＳＡＷ反馈元件通常有不同的相位噪声特点。还讨论了降低相位噪声电平，提高振荡器的谱密度的方法和途径     

项目风险分析与管理

本文在分析比较传统风险分析方法的基础上,提出了一个更为有效的风险分析方法,即“交叉分析-蒙特卡罗模拟”综合模型。并利用此模型对H集团的某技改投资项目进行了案例分析。在此基础上,提出了建立项目风险防范预警系统的风险管理模式。     

实时CORBA rtORB的性能评估

介绍了一个实时CORBA的原型rtORB,给出了一个对其进行实时性能测试的平台。以延迟和延迟抖动为指标,通过与其他实时CORBA的性能比较,表明rtORB可以支持实时应用。为评估操作系统和通信对实时CORBA的影响,在不同操作系统上进行了测试。针对rtORB在不同操作系统上的测试结果,讨论了操作系统和通信对基于实时CORBA实时应用的影响。     

分布时滞Hopfield神经网络稳定性

针对分布时滞的Hopfield型神经网络构造了李雅普诺夫能量函数,证明了该网络的稳定性问题。证明过程中运用了引理的结论,充分利用了所取李雅普诺夫函数的特殊性,较多地运用了不等式分析方法及不等式放缩技巧。同时由于时滞的存在,证明过程中还涉及李雅普诺夫泛函问题。最后利用引理的结论得出了该网络全局一致渐近稳定的结论。     

BARGAINING AND DELAY: THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL INFORMATION

This paper examines the notion that delay in reaching agreement in bargaining may be caused by learning that is independent of the bargaining procedure. In particular, learning is not due to inference from the observed offers and responses of the opponent, but derives from observation of an exogenous, costly signal – we call this 'investigation'. First we observe that even if learning is costless and perfectly informative, investigation may not occur in equilibrium. Under more general conditions, however, uninformed agents typically have an incentive to try to manipulate their prior beliefs through investigation. The main result is that investigation by an uninformed agent may result in significant delay occurring before agreement is reached. We show that this delay may be sustained in the limit as the length of time period vanishes, and that this result depends crucially on the properties of the information production technology underlying investigation. Also, the delay we observe is shown to be robust to changes in the bargaining procedure.     

动态交通路网中有效路径的确定方法

给出了动态有效路径的明确定义,并将深度优先搜索的树搜索算法、寻路定向性、层次空间推理策略以及A*算法中的定向估价函数相结合,提出了动态有效路径的一种有效算法.在新算法中通过对交叉口延误的特殊处理,使得城市交通路网中的分向交叉口延误得以充分体现,并有利于将交通导行系统与交通控制系统相融合.同时对动态有效路径搜索在动态车辆路径导行和动态交通分配中的应用作了初步分析.     

论现代项目管理的四大转变

项目作为企业及国民经济发展的基本单元,是企业乃至国家竞争力的重要支撑。目前,项目管理已经成为一个新兴的学科和行业,在全球得到广泛应用并取得巨大成功。现代项目管理与传统项目管理相比出现了4大转变:从艺术到科学、从经验到理性;从实现″三大约束″到使利益相关者满意;从项目式管理到“按项目进行管理”;从项目实施者到职业经理人。